Biology subjects

Pinsky, M. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Pinsky, M. L..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Primary productivity declines when species composition and climate are mismatched

Climate change drives shifts in species composition, but turnover in many communities lags behind the current pace of change. Anticipating the impact of the resulting community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functioning is critical. Present-day communities may already be out of equilibrium with climate, providing an opportunity to estimate the effects of disequilibrium before they become more widespread. We analyzed plant community composition and function data from [~]60,000 rangeland monitoring sites across the western US to measure how community-climate disequilibrium contributes to spatial and temporal variation in net primary productivity (NPP) - a key ecosystem function. We found that communities were already substantially out of equilibrium with climate and accounting for this disequilibrium helped explain patterns of NPP. Communities farthest from equilibrium were less productive than those that were closely matched with climate. Our findings suggest that future increases in community-climate disequilibrium may further impair ecosystem functioning.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Contrasting patterns of seascape genetics in Acropora cf. tenuis and their symbiotic algae.

Theory suggests that pairs of mutualist species will often co-disperse and share the same dispersal patterns, though the extent to which this happens remains unclear. Photosynthetic corals constitute an example of this dynamic, as they rely on algal symbionts to meet their energetic needs, yet many acquire their symbionts environmentally after their larval dispersal phase. Consequently, corals and their symbionts may exhibit similar or contrasting patterns of genetic variation across the seascape, with implications for their evolutionary and ecological processes. Here, we densely sample corals of the key reef-building taxon Acropora cf. tenuis and their algal symbionts across a reefscape in the central Philippines to examine genetic variation across space. Four distinct coral taxa show genetic evidence of long distance dispersal, including weak or absent isolation by distance signals and parent-offspring pairs at widely spaced sites. These coral taxa all host a single group of algal symbionts from the genus Cladocopium, which shows landscape genetic structure independent from its coral hosts. In fact, Cladocopium genetics vary with both latitude and depth, potentially indicating genome-wide local adaptation at a finer spatial scale than that seen in their hosts. Genetic variation at markedly different spatial scales between host and symbiont may be beneficial for hosts if these differences enable them to acquire symbionts adapted to their settlement environments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Anthropocene genetic diversity loss in the marine tropics

Genetic diversity is a crucial component of biodiversity, and as such, its maintenance and preservation is of high conservation concern. Tropical environments are undergoing intense rates of environmental change, and these changes may be driving large declines in genetic diversity. However, data on genetic diversity are highly skewed towards temperate regions. The degree to which diversity loss has occurred in tropical species, particularly marine species, remains an open and important question. Here, we directly compare genomic data from modern and museum collections of two commercially-harvested nearshore marine fishes (Equulites laterofenestra and Gazza minuta) gathered from a single location in the Philippines, spanning a century of intense environmental change. These data reveal a marked loss in genetic diversity and evidence for multiple orders of magnitude reductions in effective population size (Ne) in both species, indicating substantial genomic erosion. Such a decline highlights the long-lasting genomic consequences of anthropogenic activity and sheds light on an, until-now, invisible loss of diversity from the most biodiverse ocean region. Significance StatementRecent reports have shown that genetic diversity in marine fishes has declined either slightly or not at all during the Anthropocene. However, almost all studies investigating marine genetic diversity loss have been from temperate latitudes, whereas tropical marine environments experience some of the most intense human impacts. Here, we directly compare genomic data from modern and historical specimens of two commercially-harvested fishes from the Philippines. We show that marine species in the tropics have already lost substantial genetic diversity and may have undergone severe bottlenecks over the past century. These results shine a light on the previously invisible loss of genetic diversity in the most biodiverse region of the ocean, and they emphasize the evolutionary consequences of the Anthropocene.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Life on the edge: a new toolbox for population-level climate change vulnerability assessments

O_LIGlobal change is impacting biodiversity across all habitats on earth. New selection pressures from changing climatic conditions and other anthropogenic activities are creating heterogeneous ecological and evolutionary responses across many species geographic ranges. Yet we currently lack standardised and reproducible tools to effectively predict the resulting patterns in species vulnerability to declines or range changes. C_LIO_LIWe developed an informatic toolbox that integrates ecological, environmental and genomic data and analyses (environmental dissimilarity, species distribution models, landscape connectivity, neutral and adaptive genetic diversity and genotype-environment associations) to estimate population vulnerability. In our toolbox, functions and data structures are coded in a standardised way so that it is applicable to any species or geographic region where appropriate data are available, for example individual or population sampling and genomic datasets (e.g. RAD-seq, ddRAD-seq, whole genome sequencing data) representing environmental variation across the species geographic range. C_LIO_LIWe apply our toolbox to a georeferenced genomic dataset for the East African spiny reed frog (Afrixalus fornasini) to predict population vulnerability, as well as demonstrating that range loss projections based on adaptive variation can be accurately reproduced using data for two European bat species (Myotis escalerai, and M. crypticus). C_LIO_LIOur framework sets the stage for large scale, multi-species genomic datasets to be leveraged in a novel climate change vulnerability framework to quantify intraspecific differences in genetic diversity, local adaptation, range shifts and population vulnerability based on exposure, sensitivity, and range shift potential. C_LI

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Quantifying dispersal variability among nearshore marine populations

Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods, and plant seeds). Here, we quantify variation in the dispersal kernel across seven years and monsoon seasons for a common coral reef fish, Amphiprion clarkii, using genetic parentage assignments. Connectivity patterns varied strongly among years and seasons in the scale and shape but not in the direction of dispersal. This interannual variation in dispersal kernels introduced temporal covariance among dispersal routes with overall positive correlations in connections across the metapopulation that may reduce stochastic metapopulation growth rates. The extent of variation in mean dispersal distance observed here among years is comparable in magnitude to the differences across reef fish species. Considering dispersal variability will be an important avenue for further metapopulation and metacommunity research across diverse taxa.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Are we ready to track climate-driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? - A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data

Marine biota is redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. We further found that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species and that an average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with vector autoregressive spatio-temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate-driven ocean changes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Inferring Models with Alternative Stable States from Independent Observations

Multiple attractors and alternative stable states are defining features of scientific theories in ecology and evolution, implying that abrupt regime shifts can occur and that outcomes can be hard to reverse. Here we describe a statistical inferential framework that uses independent, noisy observations with low temporal resolution to support or refute multiple attractor process models. The key is using initial conditions to choose among a finite number of expected outcomes using a nonstandard finite mixture methodology. We apply the framework to contemporary issues in social-ecological systems, coral ecosystems, and chaotic systems, showing that incorporating history allows us to statistically infer process models with alternative stable states while minimizing false positives. Further, in the presence of disturbances and oscillations, alternative stable states can help rather than hamper inference. The ability to infer models with alternative stable states across natural systems can help accelerate scientific discoveries, change how we manage ecosystems and societies, and place modern theories on firmer empirical ground.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Geometric Analysis of Regime Shifts in Coral Reef Communities

Coral reefs are among the many communities believed to exhibit regime shifts between alternative stable states, single-species dominance, and coexistence. Proposed drivers of regime shifts include changes in grazing, spatial clustering, and ocean temperature. Here we distill the dynamic regimes of coral-macroalgal interaction into a three-dimensional geometry, akin to thermodynamic phase diagrams of state transitions, to facilitate analysis. Specific regime-shifting forces can be understood as bifurcation vectors through the cubic regime geometry. This geometric perspective allows us to understand multiple forces simultaneously in terms of the stability and persistence of interacting species. For example, in a coral-macroalgae community, grazing on macroalgae can lead to alternative stable states when there is no spatial clustering (e.g., high habitat connectivity). However, with spatial clustering, grazing can lead to coexistence because of elevated local intraspecific competition. The geometrical analysis of regime shifts is applicable to any two-species communities and can help conservation efforts navigate complexity and abrupt changes.

ecology↗