A can of worms: estimating the global number of earthworm species
Estimating the overall species number for a given taxon is a central issue in ecology and conservation biology. This is especially topical for soil organisms, which comprise most known species but whose taxonomy remains largely understudied. Here, we estimated the global number of earthworm species based on the Joppa approach, which models taxonomic effort over time to estimate the total number of known and as yet unknown species in a given taxa. Our Bayesian estimation of the Joppa model suggests a global diversity of the order of 30,000 species, suggesting that the 5,679 earthworm taxa already described only represent around 20% of the actual global species diversity. However, the uncertainty around this estimate is considerable due to severe undersampling and as the model cannot unambiguously decide whether we are describing few species because of a small pool of as yet unknown species, or because of a lack of taxonomic efficiency. Considering the current rate of new species description, we calculate that it would take at least 120 years to describe all the earthworm species existing on Earth, and we discuss thedifferent strategies that should be developed to facilitate and accelerate the discovery and naming of species new to science.