Perez, P. N. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

MVSE: an R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index.

BackgroundViruses such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies.\n\nResultsWe developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. The package estimates a suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) of a well established mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, suitability can be estimated for specific host and viral species, as well as different regions of the globe.\n\nConclusionsHere, we describe the background theory and biological interpretation of the new suitability index, as well as the implementation, basic functionality, research and educational potentials of the MVSE R-package. The package is freely available under the GPL 3.0 license.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability and its implications for Zika virus transmission in Myanmar

INTRODUCTION: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar. RESULTS: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand. DISCUSSION: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.

epidemiology↗