bioRxiv ScienceSearch

Biology subjects

Penman, B. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Penman, B. S..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Estimating the burden of α-thalassaemia in Thailand using a comprehensive prevalence database for Southeast Asia

Severe forms of -thalassaemia, haemoglobin H disease and haemoglobin Barts hydrops fetalis, are an important public health concern in Southeast Asia. Yet information on the prevalence, genetic diversity and health burden of -thalassaemia in the region remains limited. We compiled a geodatabase of -thalassaemia prevalence and genetic diversity surveys and, using geostatistical modelling methods, generated the first continuous maps of -thalassaemia mutations in Thailand and sub-national estimates of the number of newborns with severe forms in 2020. We also summarised the current evidence-base for -thalassaemia prevalence and diversity for the region. We estimate that 3,595 (95% credible interval 1,717 - 6,199) newborns will be born with severe -thalassaemia in Thailand in 2020, which is considerably higher than previous estimates. Accurate, fine-scale epidemiological data are necessary to guide sustainable national and regional health policies for -thalassaemia control. Our maps and newborn estimates are an important first step towards this aim.\n\nFundingThis work was supported by European Unions Seventh Framework Programme (FP7//2007-2013)/European Research Council [268904 - DIVERSITY]

epidemiology

Reverse immunodynamics: a new method to identifying targets of protective immunity.

Despite a dramatic increase in our ability to catalogue variation among pathogen genomes, we have made far fewer advances in using this information to identify targets of protective immunity. We propose a novel methodology that combines predictions from epidemiological models with phylogenetic and structural analyses to identify such targets. Epidemiological models predict that strong immune selection can cause antigenic variants to exist in non-overlapping combinations. A corollary of this theory is that targets of immunity may be identified by searching for non-overlapping associations among antigenic variants. We applied this concept to the AMA-1 protein of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum and found strong signatures of immune selection among certain regions of low variability which could render them ideal vaccine candidates.

epidemiology