Biology subjects

Paniw, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Paniw, M..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

"Negative density dependence promotes persistence of a globally rare yet locally abundant plant species (Oenoethera coloradensis)"

O_LIIdentifying the mechanisms underlying the persistence of rare species has long been a motivating question for ecologists. Classical theory implies that community dynamics should be driven by common species, and that natural selection should not allow small populations of rare species to persist. Yet, a majority of the species found on Earth are rare. Consequently, several mechanisms have been proposed to explain their persistence, including negative density dependence, demographic compensation, vital rate buffering, asynchronous responses of sub-populations to environmental heterogeneity, and fine-scale source-sink dynamics. Persistence of seeds in a seed bank, which is often ignored in models of population dynamics, can also buffer small populations against collapse. C_LIO_LIWe used integral projection models (IPMs) to examine the population dynamics of Oenothera coloradensis, a rare, monocarpic perennial forb, and determine whether any of five proposed demographic mechanisms for rare species persistence contribute to the long-term viability of two populations. We also evaluated how including a discrete seed bank stage changed population models for this species. C_LIO_LIIncluding a seed bank stage in population models had a significant positive impact on modeled O. coloradensis population growth rate. Using IPMs that included a discrete seedbank state, we found that negative density-dependence was the only supported mechanism for the persistence of this rare species. C_LIO_LISynthesis: IPMs of two populations of the rare species O. coloradensis emphasize the importance of including cryptic life stages such as seed banks in demographic models, but fail to provide strong support for most of the proposed mechanisms of rare species persistence. We propose that high micro-site abundance in a spatially heterogeneous environment enables this species to persist, allowing it to sidestep the demographic and genetic challenges of small population size that rare species typically face. These results emphasize that globally rare species can employ many different strategies for persistence, including the somewhat counter-intuitive phenomenon of local abundance. This reinforces the need for customized management and conservation strategies that mirror the diversity of mechanisms that allow rare species persistence. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Beyond demographic buffering: Context dependence in demographic strategies across animals

Temporal variation in vital rates (e.g., survival, reproduction) can decrease the long-term mean performance of a population. Species are therefore expected to evolve demographic strategies that counteract the negative effects of vital rate variation on the population growth rate. One key strategy, demographic buffering, is reflected in a low temporal variation in vital rates critical to population dynamics. However, comparative studies in plants have found little evidence for demographic buffering, and little is known about the prevalence of buffering in animal populations. Here, we used vital rate estimates from 31 natural populations of 29 animal species to assess the prevalence of demographic buffering. We modeled the degree of demographic buffering using a standard measure of correlation between the standard deviation of vital rates and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in such vital rates across populations. We also accounted for the effects of life-history traits, i.e., age at first reproduction and spread of reproduction across the life cycle, on these correlation measures. We found no strong or consistent evidence of demographic buffering across the study populations. Instead, key vital rates could vary substantially depending on the specific environmental context populations experience. We suggest that it is time to look beyond concepts of demographic buffering when studying natural populations towards a stronger focus on the environmental context-dependence of vital-rate variation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Short-lived plants have stronger demographic responses to climate

To mitigate and adapt to climate change, there is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data, combined with our understanding of plant physiology and life history theory provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesized time series of structured population models from 165 populations from 62 plants around the globe to link plant population growth rates to precipitation and temperature drivers. We expected: (1) more pronounced demographic responses to precipitation than temperature, especially in arid biomes; (2) a higher climate sensitivity in short-lived rather than long-lived species; and (3) a stronger response to climate by species that reproduce more frequently. We found that precipitation anomalies have a nearly three-fold larger effect on{lambda} than temperature. Precipitation has substantially more pronounced effects in more arid sites, but large noise makes this relationship non-significant. Species with shorter generation time have much stronger absolute responses to climate anomalies, while the degree of iteroparity does not correlate with population responses to climate. We conclude that key species-level traits can predict plant population responses to climate, and discuss the relevance of this generalization for conservation planning and evolutionary theory.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

Approximately 25 % of mammals are threatened globally with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change1. Persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, on population dynamics2. Thus, to quantify which species and places on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how demographic rates respond to climate is needed3. We synthesise information on such responses in terrestrial mammals, where extensive demographic data are available4. Given the importance of assessing the full spectrum of responses, we focus on studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We identify 106 such studies, corresponding to 86 mammal species. We reveal a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognised as most vulnerable to climate change5,6. Moreover, we show that the effects of climate change on mammals will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others. Assessments of population viability under climate change therefore need to account for multiple demographic responses. We advocate to prioritise coordinated actions to assess mammal demography holistically for effective conservation worldwide.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A tradeoff between robustness to environmental fluctuations and speed of evolution

Organisms must cope with both short- and long-term environmental changes to persist. In this study we investigated whether life histories trade-off between their robustness to short-term environmental perturbations and their ability to evolve directional trait changes. We could confirm the tradeoff by modeling the eco-evolutionary dynamics of life-histories along the fast-slow pace-of-life continuum. Offspring dormancy and high adult survival rates allowed for large population sizes to be maintained in face of interannual environmental fluctuations but limited the speed of trait evolution with ongoing environmental change. In contrast, precocious offspring maturation and short-living adults promoted evolvability while lowering demographic robustness. This tradeoff had immediate consequences on extinction dynamics in variable environments. High evolvability allowed short-lived species to cope with long-lasting gradual environmental change, but came at the expense of more pronounced population declines and extinction rates from environmental variability. Higher robustness of slow life-histories helped them persist better on short timescales.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Seasonal Effects of Environmental Change on Yellow-Bellied Marmot Population Dynamics

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneous, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Perspectives from animal demography on incorporating evolutionary mechanism into plant population dynamics

With a growing number of long-term, individual-based data on natural populations available, it has become increasingly evident that environmental change affects populations through complex, simultaneously occurring demographic and evolutionary processes. Analyses of population-level responses to environmental change must therefore integrate demography and evolution into one coherent framework. Integral projection models (IPMs), which can relate genetic and phenotypic traits to demographic and population-level processes, offer a powerful approach for such integration. However, a rather artificial divide exists in how plant and animal population ecologists use IPMs. Here, I argue for the integration of the two sub-disciplines, particularly focusing on how plant ecologists can diversify their toolset to investigate selection pressures and eco-evolutionary dynamics in plant population models. I provide an overview of approaches that have applied IPMs for eco-evolutionary studies and discuss a potential future research agenda for plant population ecologists. Given an impending extinction crisis, a holistic look at the interacting processes mediating population persistence under environmental change is urgently needed.

ecology↗