Palazon, S. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Transnational non-invasive monitoring and spatial capture-recapture models reveal strong effects of humans on connectivity for the Pyrenean brown bear

Connectivity, in the sense of the persistence of movements between habitat patches, is key to maintain endangered populations and has to be evaluated in management plans. In practice, connectivity is difficult to quantify especially for rare and elusive species. Here, we use spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models with an ecological detection distance to identify barriers to movement. We focused on the transnational critically endangered Pyrenean brown bear (Ursus arctos) population, which is distributed over Spain, France and Andorra and is divided into two main cores areas following translocations. We integrate structured monitoring from camera traps and hair snags with opportunistic data gathered after depredation events. While structured monitoring focuses on areas of regular bear presence, the integration of opportunistic data allows us to obtain information in a wider range of habitat, which is especially important for ecological inference. By estimating a resistance parameter from encounter data, we show that the road network impedes movements, leading to smaller home ranges with increasing road density. Although the quantitative effect of roads is context-dependent (i.e. varying according to landscape configuration), our model predicts that a brown bear with a home range located in an area with relatively high road density (8.29km/km2) has a home range size reduced by 1.4-fold for males and 1.6-fold for females compared to a brown bear with a home range located in an area with low road density (1.38km/km2). When assessing connectivity, spatial capture-recapture modeling offers an alternative to the use of experts opinion when telemetry data are not available.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Estimating abundance of a recovering transboundary brown bear population with capture-recapture models

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWEstimating the size of small populations of large mammals can be achieved via censuses, or complete counts, of recognizable individuals detected over a time period: minimum detected (population) size (MDS). However, as a population grows larger and its spatial distribution expands, the risk of under-estimating population size using MDS rapidly increases because the assumption of perfect detection of all individuals in the population is violated. The need to report uncertainty around population size estimates consequently becomes crucial. We explored these biases using the monitoring framework of the critically endangered Pyrenean brown bear that was close to extinction in the mid-1990s, with only five individuals remaining, but was subsequently bolstered by the introduction of 11 bears from Slovenia. Each year since 1996, the abundance of the population has been assessed using MDS and minimum retained (population) size (MRS), which corresponded to a reassessment of the MDS in the light of the new information collected in subsequent years (e.g., adding bears which were not detected the previous years but detected the current year). We used Pollocks closed robust design (PCRD) capture-recapture models applied to the cross-border non-invasive sampling data from France, Spain and Andorra to provide the first published annual abundance and temporal trend estimates of the Pyrenean brown bear population since 2008. Annual population size increased fivefold between 2008 and 2020, going from 13 to 66 individuals. PCRD estimates were globally close to MRS counts and had reasonably narrow associated 95% Credibility Intervals. Even in cases where sampling effort is large compared to population size, the PCRD estimates of population size can diverge from the MDS counts. We report individual heterogeneity in detection that might stem from intraspecific home range size variation that result in individuals that move the most being most likely to be detected. We also found that cubs had a higher mortality rate than adults and subadults, because of infanticide by males, predation, maternal death, or abandonment. Overall, the PCRD capture-recapture modelling approach provides estimates of abundance and demographic rates of the Pyrenean brown bear population, together with associated uncertainty, while minimizing bias due to inter-individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities. We strongly encourage wildlife ecologists and managers to use robust approaches when researching large mammal populations. Such information is vital for informing management decision-making and assessing population conservation status.

ecology↗