Biology subjects

Ozgul, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Ozgul, A..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

When do shifts in trait dynamics precede population declines?

Predicting population responses to environmental change is an on-going challenge in ecology. Studies investigating the links between fitness-related phenotypic traits and demography have shown that trait dynamic responses to environmental change can sometimes precede population dynamic responses, and thus, can be used as an early warning signal. However, it is still unknown under which ecological and evolutionary circumstances, shifts in fitness-related traits can precede population responses to environmental perturbation. Here, we take a trait-based demographic approach and investigate both trait and population dynamics in a density-regulated population in response to a gradual change in the environment. We explore the ecological and evolutionary constraints under which shifts in a fitness-related trait precedes a decline in population size. We show both analytically and with experimental data that under medium-to-slow rate of environmental change, shifts in trait value can precede population decline. We further show the positive influence of environmental predictability, average reproductive rate, plasticity, and genetic variation on shifts in trait dynamics preceding potential population declines. These results still hold under non-constant genetic variation and environmental stochasticity. Our study highlights ecological and evolutionary circumstances under which a fitness-related trait can be used as an early warning signal of an impending population decline.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Eco-evolutionary processes underlying early warning signals of population declines

O_LIEnvironmental change can impact the stability of populations and can cause rapid declines in abundance. Abundance-based warning signals have been proposed to predict such declines, but these have been shown to have limited success, leading to the development of warning signals based on the distribution of fitness-related traits such as body size. C_LIO_LIThe dynamics of such traits in response to external environmental perturbations are controlled by a range of underlying factors such as reproductive rate, genetic variation, and plasticity. However, it remains unknown how such ecological and evolutionary factors affect the stability landscape of populations and the detectability of abundance and trait-based warning signals of population decline. C_LIO_LIHere, we apply a trait-based demographic approach and investigate both trait and population dynamics in response to gradual changes in the environment. We explore a range of ecological and evolutionary constraints under which the stability of a population may be affected. C_LIO_LIWe show both analytically and with model-based simulations that strength of abundance-based early warning signals is significantly affected by ecological and evolutionary factors. C_LIO_LIFinally, we show that a unified approach, combining trait- and abundance-based information, significantly improves our ability to predict population declines. Our study suggests that the inclusion of trait dynamic information alongside generic warning signals should provide more accurate forecasts of the future state of biological systems. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Weighted trait-abundance early warning signals better predict population collapse

Predicting population collapse in the face of unprecedented anthropogenic pressures is a key challenge in conservation. Abundance-based early warning signals have been suggested as a possible solution to this problem; however, they are known to be susceptible to the spatial and temporal subsampling ubiquitous to abundance estimates of wild population. Recent work has shown that composite early warning methods that take into account changes in fitness-related phenotypic traits - such as body size - alongside traditional abundance-based signals are better able to predict collapse, as trait dynamic estimates are less susceptible to sampling protocols. However, these previously developed composite early warning methods weighted the relative contribution of abundance and trait dynamics evenly. Here we present an extension to this work where the relative importance of different data types can be weighted in line with the quality of available data. Using data from a small-scale experimental system we demonstrate that weighted indicators can improve the accuracy of composite early warning signals by >60%. Our work shows that non-uniform weighting can increase the likelihood of correctly detecting a true positive early warning signal in wild populations, with direct relevance for conservation management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2016

Adaptive and Non-adaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change

Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population level plastic and evolutionary responses, with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive. Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change, or whether simpler non-evolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient.

evolutionary biology↗