Biology subjects

Overcast, I.

Publications and source records attributed to Overcast, I..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Intermediate abundance promotes speciation when dispersal is limited

Why do some lineages diversify while others do not? This remains a central question in evolutionary ecology. A long-standing assumption, dating to Darwin and embedded in the Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, holds that abundant species should speciate at higher rates. Conversely, theoretical and empirical work highlights the possibility that rare and dispersal-limited clades might be more prone to speciation. Using a birth-death-immigration model with protracted speciation in a multi-population landscape connected by limited dispersal, we show that abundance has a hump-shaped effect on probability of speciation. Our model reveals that intermediate abundance maximizes speciation probability because larger populations disperse more, swamping regional differentiation and inhibiting speciation completion, while smaller populations lack the persistence and incipient speciation needed to diversify. We find empirical support for this prediction with an analysis of data from arthropods endemic to Hawaii, where genus-level species richness shows a significant hump-shaped relationship with mean genus abundance. These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for a nuanced relationship between abundance and diversification.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Global determinants of the distribution of insect genetic diversity

Understanding global patterns of genetic diversity (GD) is essential for describing, monitoring, and preserving life on Earth. To date, efforts to map macrogenetic patterns have been restricted to vertebrates, which comprise only a small fraction of Earths biodiversity. Here, we construct the first global map of predicted insect mitochondrial (COI) GD, derived from publicly available data. We calculate the mitochondrial GD mean (GDM) and evenness (GDE) of insect assemblages across the globe, identify their environmental correlates, and make predictions of mitochondrial GD levels in unsampled areas based on environmental data. Using the largest single-locus genetic dataset yet assembled, we find that mitochondrial GDE follows a quadratic latitudinal gradient peaking in the subtropics. Both mitochondrial GDM and GDE positively correlate with seasonally hot temperatures, as well as climate stability since the last glacial maximum. Our models explain 27.9% and 24.0% of the observed variation in mitochondrial GDM and GDE in insects, respectively, making an important step towards understanding global biodiversity patterns in the most diverse animal taxon.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Complex genetic patterns and distribution limits mediated by native congeners of the worldwide invasive red-eared slider turtle

Non-native (invasive) species offer a unique opportunity to study the geographic distribution and range limits of species, wherein the evolutionary change driven by interspecific interactions between native and non-native closely related species is a key component. The red-eared slider turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans (TSE), has been introduced and successfully established worldwide. It can coexist with its native congeners T. cataspila, T. venusta and T. taylori in Mexico. We performed comprehensive fieldwork, executed a battery of genetic analyses and applied a novel species distribution modeling approach to evaluate their historical lineage relationships and contemporary population genetic patterns. Our findings support the historical common ancestry between native TSE and non-native (TSEalien), while also highlighting the genetic differentiation of the exotic lineage. Genetic patterns are associated with their range size/endemism gradient, the microendemic T. taylori showed significant reduced genetic diversity and high differentiation, whereas TSEalien showed the highest diversity and signals of population size expansion. Counter to our expectations, lower naturally occurring distribution overlap and little admixture patterns were found between and its congeners, exhibiting reduced gene flow and clear genetic separation across neighboring species despite having zones of contact. We demonstrate that these native Trachemys species have distinct climatic niche suitability, likely preventing establishment of and displacement by the non-native TSE. Additionally, we found major niche overlap between TSEalien and native species worldwide, supporting our prediction that sites with closer ecological optima to the invasive species have higher establishment risk than those that are closer to the niche-center of the native species.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Detecting the ecological footprint of selection

The structure of communities is influenced by many ecological and evolutionary processes, but the way this manifests in classic biodiversity patterns often remains unclear. Here, we aim to distinguish the ecological footprint of selection - through competition or environmental filtering - from that of neutral processes that are invariant to species identity. We build on existing Massive Eco-evolutionary Synthesis Simulations (MESS), which uses information from three biodiversity axes - species abundances, genetic diversity, and trait variation - to distinguish between mechanistic processes. In order to correctly detect and characterise competition, we add a new and more realistic form of competition that explicitly compares the traits of each pair of individuals. Our results are qualitatively different to those of previous work in which competition is based on the distance of each individuals trait to the community mean. We find that our new form of competition is easier to identify in empirical data compared to the alternatives. This is especially true when trait data are available and used in the inference procedure. Our findings hint that signatures in empirical data previously attributed to neutrality may in fact be the result of pairwise-acting selective forces. We conclude that gathering more different types of data, together with more advanced mechanistic models and inference as done here, could be the key to unravelling the mechanisms of community assembly.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

A unified model of species abundance, genetic diversity, and functional diversity revealsthe mechanisms structuring ecological communities

Biodiversity accumulates hierarchically by means of ecological and evolutionary processes and feedbacks. Reconciling the relative importance of these processes is hindered by current theory, which tends to focus on a single spatial, temporal or taxonomic scale. We introduce a mechanistic model of community assembly, rooted in classic island biogeography theory, which makes temporally explicit joint predictions across three biodiversity data axes: i) species richness and abundances; ii) population genetic diversities; and iii) trait variation in a phylogenetic context. We demonstrate that each data axis captures information at different timescales, and that integrating these axes enables discriminating among previously unidentifiable community assembly models. We combine our massive eco-evolutionary synthesis simulations (MESS) with supervised machine learning to fit the parameters of the model to real data and infer processes underlying how biodiversity accumulates, using communities of tropical trees, arthropods, and gastropods as case studies that span a range of spatial scales.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

An integrated model of population genetics and community ecology

AimQuantifying abundance distributions is critical for understanding both how communities assemble, and how community structure varies through time and space, yet estimating abundances requires considerable investment in field work. Community-level population genetic data potentially offer a powerful way to indirectly infer richness, abundance, and the history of accumulation of biodiversity within a community. Here we introduce a joint model linking neutral community assembly and comparative phylogeography to generate both community-level richness, abundance and genetic variation under a neutral model, capturing both equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamics.\n\nLocationGlobal.\n\nMethodsOur model combines a forward-time individual-based community assembly process with a rescaled backward-time neutral coalescent model of multi-taxa population genetics. We explore general dynamics of genetic and abundance-based summary statistics and use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate parameters underlying the model of island community assembly. Finally, we demonstrate two applications of the model using community-scale mtDNA sequence data and densely sampled abundances of an arachnid community on La Reunion. First, we use genetic data alone to estimate a summary of the abundance distribution, ground-truthing this against the observed abundances. Then we jointly use the observed genetic data and abundances to estimate the proximity of the community to equilibrium.\n\nResultsSimulation experiments of our ABC procedure demonstrate that coupling abundance with genetic data leads to improved accuracy and precision of model parameter estimates compared with using abundance-only data. We further demonstrate reasonable precision and accuracy in estimating a metric underlying the shape of the abundance distribution, temporal progress toward local equilibrium, and several key parameters of the community assembly process. For the insular arachnid assemblage, we find the joint distribution of genetic diversity and abundance approaches equilibrium expectations, and that the Shannon entropy of the observed abundances can be estimated using genetic data alone.\n\nMain ConclusionsThe framework that we present unifies neutral community assembly and comparative phylogeography to characterize the community-level distribution of both abundance and genetic variation through time, providing a resource that should greatly enhance understanding of both the processes structuring ecological communities and the associated aggregate demographic histories.

evolutionary biology↗