Odufuwa, O. G. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Quantifying the impact of experimental hut design on intervention evaluation outcomes and predicted reductions in vectorial capacity

Experimental hut trials (EHTs) are WHO-recommended for the entomological evaluation of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), but several hut designs are in operational use, and structural differences between them may confound efficacy predictions and limit cross-site comparability. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework comprising a host-seeking model, which jointly estimates biting deterrence and preprandial mortality while accounting for night-to-night variation and overdispersion, and a postprandial mortality model, which expresses hut and net effects as hazard ratios through a complementary log-log link. We applied it to a comparative trial of four hut designs (East African, West African, Ifakara and Rapley) conducted at a single site in Tanzania, evaluating eight ITNs when new and after twenty washes. Posterior estimates parameterise a vectorial capacity framework to predict reductions in transmission potential. Hut design influenced baseline mosquito behaviour and all three modes of action. Relative to the Rapley reference, baseline feeding rates were substantially lower in the East African and West African huts and closer to Rapley in the Ifakara hut. Preprandial mortality was amplified in the Ifakara hut. Comparing to previous analysis provides evidence that combining mortality before and after feeding into a single endpoint does not reliably reflect impact, supporting the decomposition of entomological outcomes into separate modes of action. Expressing modes of action as mechanism-specific parameters allows the estimates to be carried directly into transmission models. For every net, the predicted reduction in vectorial capacity was greatest in the Ifakara hut and smallest in the West African and Rapley huts. The effect of hut design on predicted impact exceeded that of washing the nets twenty times. Results indicate that the hut design under which trial data were collected should be considered when forecasting population-level effect.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Estimating mosquito bionomics parameters with a hierarchical Bayesian model

BackgroundThe malaria transmission potential and the vulnerability of Anopheles mosquitoes to different vector control methods depend, among other factors, on the endophily, endophagy, anthropophagy and survival of each species. Local information on these bionomic parameters is generally unavailable. MethodsTo address this, we estimated species-specific values of these parameters using an augmented version of the global database of bionomics data by Massey et al. (2016). We applied inclusion and exclusion criteria to select eligible studies with relevant experimental designs that minimise bias from collection methods for parous, sac, endophagy, and endophily rates as well as for the resting duration. For the human blood index (HBI), we separated data from indoor and outdoor collections. We fitted hierarchical Bayesian models with levels based on Anopheles taxonomy to estimate these quantities. Based on the estimated bionomics, we quantified the expected vectorial capacity reduction after the introduction of a pyrethroid-pyrrole insecticide-treated net (ITN) for 57 Anopheles species. ResultsWe identified 26 eligible studies for endophagy and 61 for the parous rate, leading to a Bayesian posterior average for the Anopheles genus of 42% (95% credible interval: 18-70) and 55% (32-77) respectively. HBI values widely varied depending on the location of collection, except for some species showing strong anthropophilic behaviours. Resting duration was estimated to be 2.1 days (1.2 - 4.8) at the genus level. Few studies were available to estimate the sac and endophily rates, which prevented us from deriving precise estimates for the whole Anopheles genus. Our estimates of the vectorial capacity reduction following the introduction of a pyrrole-pyrethroid ITN ranged between 48% and 76% across species, highlighting the important differences among mosquito species in vulnerability to vector control interventions. ConclusionThis work demonstrates how data from both Anopheles species complexes and individual species can be leveraged to generate species-specific estimates of bionomic parameters, capturing the local characteristics and behaviour of malaria vectors. The dataset is readily updatable as new data become available. However, more frequent and standardised field surveys are still needed to accurately characterise local vector behaviour.

zoology↗