Biology subjects

O'Connor, M. I.

Publications and source records attributed to O'Connor, M. I..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Nonlinear averaging of thermal experience predicts population growth rates in a thermally variable environment

As thermal regimes change worldwide, projections of future population and species persistence often require estimates of how population growth rates depend on temperature. These projections rarely account for how temporal variation in temperature can systematically modify growth rates relative to projections based on constant temperatures. Here, we tested the hypothesis that population growth rates in fluctuating thermal environments differ from growth rates in constant conditions, and that the differing thermal performance curves (TPCs) can be predicted quantitatively. With experimental populations of the green alga Tetraselmis tetrahele, we show that nonlinear averaging techniques accurately predicted increased as well as decreased population growth rates in fluctuating thermal regimes relative to constant thermal regimes. We extrapolate from these results to project critical temperatures for population growth and persistence of 89 phytoplankton species in naturally variable thermal environments. These results advance our ability to predict population dynamics in the context of global change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

A temperature dependent trophic cascade modifies temperature dependence of ecosystem function

Ecological communities and their ecosystem functions are sensitive to temperature, and aquatic habitats worldwide continue to experience unprecedented warming. Understanding ecological effects of warming requires linking empirical evidence to theories that allow projection to unobserved conditions. Metabolic scaling theory and its tests suggest that warming accelerates ecosystem functions (e.g., oxygen flux), yet this prediction apparently contradicts community-level studies suggesting warming is a stressor that can reduce ecosystem function. We sought to reconcile these predictions with an experimental test of the hypothesis that cascading trophic interactions modify the temperature-dependence of community structure and ecosystem fluxes. In a series of independent freshwater ecosystems exposed to a thermal gradient, we found that warmer temperatures strengthened the trophic cascade increased and indirectly changed community structure by altering grazer species composition and phytoplankton biomass. Temperature-driven community shifts only modestly affected the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen fluxes. Over the 10 {degrees}C thermal gradient, NPP and ER increased [~]2.7-fold among ecosystems, while standing phytoplankton biomass declined by 85-95%. The exponential increase in oxygen flux over the thermal gradient, as well as monotonic declines in phytoplankton standing stock, suggested no threshold effects of warming across systems. We also observed temperature variation over time, within ecosystems. For phytoplankton biomass, temporal variation had the opposite effect to spatial variation, suggesting that within-community temporal change in community structure was not predicted by space-for-time substitution. We conclude that food chain length can modify effects of temperature on ecosystem fluxes, but that temperature can still have continuous and positive effects on ecosystem fluxes, consistent with patterns based on large-scale, macroecological comparisons. Changes in community structure, including temperature dependent trophic cascades, may be compatible with prevailing and predictable effects of temperature on ecosystem functions related to fundamental effects of temperature on metabolism.\n\nStatement of authorshipJG & MIO designed the study, MIO & US provided materials, JG & SJC performed research and collected data, JG performed zooplankton analysis, SJC performed phytoplankton analysis, JG & MIO performed modeling work, analyzed data output, and wrote the first draft, and all authors contributed substantially to reviews

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

An empirical test of the temperature dependence of carrying capacity

Predicting population persistence and dynamics in the context of global change is a major challenge for ecology. A widely held prediction is that population abundance at carrying capacity decreases with warming, assuming no change in resource supply, due to increased individual resource demands associated with higher metabolic rates. However, this prediction, which is based on metabolic scaling theory (MST), has not been tested empirically. Here we experimentally tested whether effects of temperature on short-term metabolic performance (rates of photosynthesis and respiration) translate directly to effects of temperature on population rates in a phytoplankton species. We found that effects of temperature on organismal metabolic rates matched theoretical predictions, and that the temperature dependence of individual metabolic performance translated to population abundance. Population abundance at carrying capacity, K, decreased with temperature less than expected based on the temperature dependence of photosynthesis. Concurrent with declines in abundance, we observed a linear decline in cell size of approximately 2.3% {degrees}C-1, which is consistent with broadly observed patterns in unicellular organisms, known as the temperature-size rule. When theoretical predictions include higher densities allowed by shifts toward smaller individual size, observed declines in K were quantitatively consistent with theoretical predictions. Our results indicate that outcomes of population dynamics across a range of temperatures reflect organismal responses to temperature via metabolic scaling, providing a general basis for forecasting population responses to global change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Human activities influence the direction and magnitude of local biodiversity change over time

In recent decades, environmental drivers of community change have been associated with changes in biodiversity from local to global scales. Here we evaluate the role of anthropogenic drivers in marine ecosystems as drivers of change in local species richness with a meta-analysis of a novel dataset of temporal change in species richness. We paired biodiversity data from 144 sites with large-scale drivers derived from geospatial databases: human cumulative impact scores, sea surface temperature change, nutrient loading, and invasion potential. Three specific drivers (nutrient inputs, rate of linear temperature change, and non-native species invasion potential) explained patterns in local marine species richness change. We show that these drivers have opposing effects on biodiversity trends. In some cases, variability in drivers can create contrasting directions of change yielding observations of no net change when localities are pooled in an attempt to find a global average. Further, long-term studies reveal different effects of drivers that are not observed in short-term studies. These findings begin to explain high variability observed in species diversity trends at local scales. Formally attributing local species diversity change to human drivers is essential to understanding global patterns of local species diversity change and their consequences.

ecology↗