Nukazawa, K. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Dengue Disease Dynamics are Modulated by the Combined Influence of Precipitation and Landscapes: A Machine Learning-based Approach

BackgroundDengue is an endemic vector-borne disease influenced by environmental factors such as landscape and climate. Previous studies separately assessed the effects of landscape and climate factors on mosquito occurrence and dengue incidence. However, both factors interact in time and space to affect mosquito development and dengue disease transmission. For example, eggs laid in a suitable environment can hatch after being submerged in rain or flood water. ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate the combined influences of landscape and climate factors on mosquito occurrence and dengue incidence. MethodsEntomological, epidemiological, and landscape data from the rainy season (July-December) were obtained from respective government agencies in Metro Manila, Philippines, from 2012 to 2014. Temperature, precipitation, and vegetation data were obtained through remote sensing. A random forest algorithm was used to select the landscape and climate variables. Afterwards, using the identified key variables, a model-based (MOB) recursive partitioning was implemented to test the combinatory influences of landscape and climate factors on the ovitrap index and dengue incidence. ResultsThe MOB recursive partitioning for the ovitrap index indicated that mosquito occurrence was higher in high residential density areas, where industrial areas also exist and are well connected with roads. Precipitation was another key covariate modulating the effects of landscape factors, possibly by expanding breeding sites and activating mosquito reproduction. Moreover, the MOB recursive partitioning indicated that precipitation was the main predictor of dengue incidence, with a stronger effect in high residential density and commercial areas. DiscussionPrecipitation with floods has epidemiologically important implications by damaging shelters and causing population displacement, thus increasing exposure to dengue vectors. Our findings suggest that the intensification of vector control during the rainy season can be prioritized in residential and commercial areas to better control dengue disease dynamics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Species dispersal mediates opposing influences of a branching network on genetic variation in a metapopulation

Aim Fractal networks, represented by branching complexity in rivers, are ubiquitous in nature. In rivers, the number of either distal (e.g., in headwater streams) or confluent (e.g., in mainstems) locations can be increased along with their branching complexity. Distal- or confluent-spatial locations can result in fewer or greater corridor linkages that can alter genetic divergence at the metapopulation scale. These mechanisms underlying the resulting genetic structuring remain poorly understood at the metapopulation scale, particularly in terms of the roles of species-specific dispersal traits. The objective of this study is to mechanistically understand how branching complexity can simultaneously influence genetic divergence in opposite directions.Location Northeastern JapanMethods To evaluate the integrated influences of network complexity and species dispersal on genetic divergence among populations at the catchment scale, we conducted simulation modelling on a mechanistic framework based on Bayesian inference by adapting empirical genetic data from four macroinvertebrate species. Simulations were then done using empirical and virtual species-characteristics on virtual river networks.Results Our novel simulation showed that both greater landscape connectivity (resulting from shorter watercourse distance) and greater isolation of distal locations occurred in the more-branched river networks. These two spatial features have negative and positive influences on genetic divergence, with their relative importance varying among different species and dispersal characteristics. Specifically, genetic divergence at the metapopulation scale increased for species having higher downstream-biased dispersal but decreased for species having higher upstream-biased dispersal. Distal populations (e.g., in headwaters) have higher genetic independence when downstream-biased asymmetry is higher.Main conclusions We found a strong association between species dispersal and evolutionary processes such as gene flow and genetic drift. This association mediates the pervasive influences of branching complexity on genetic-divergence in the metapopulation. It also highlights the importance of considering species dispersal-patterns when developing management strategies in the face of rapid environmental-change scenarios.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

ecology↗