Muller, M. H. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Efficient capture-recapture inference for spatially varying natal dispersal,survival and recruitment

1. Natal dispersal is a key process in population ecology because it links local demographic processes to broader-scale population dynamics by redistributing individuals. When using capture-recapture data, multistate capture-recapture models using discrete spatial units as states are the gold standard for estimating natal dispersal among spatial units while accounting for spatial variation in survival, recruitment and imperfect detection. However, because their computational cost increases rapidly with the number of spatial units, applications have been limited to a small number of units. Therefore, in practice, these models cannot provide spatially detailed inference on natal dispersal across large landscapes. 2. We develop a computationally efficient Bayesian capture-recapture model, called the efficient natal dispersal (END) model, to estimate natal dispersal among discrete spatial units jointly with spatial variation in demographic parameters and detection probabilities. The END model relies on two key structural features: juveniles and breeders are separated into two arrays, and resightings outside the natal spatial unit are aggregated over time for individuals released as juveniles. 3. Using simulations, we show that the END model is considerably (up to 30 times) more computationally efficient than a conventional multistate model, while maintaining comparable parameter accuracy. We then apply the END model to white stork (Ciconia ciconia) capture-recapture data from Germany across 101 hexagonal spatial units, a spatial resolution at which a conventional multistate model is computationally infeasible. We estimate natal dispersal among units jointly with spatial variation in survival and recruitment. This allows us to identify areas of lower or higher survival, earlier or delayed recruitment, and dispersal probabilities among all units. By combining estimated dispersal probabilities with existing data on the number of juveniles born in each spatial unit, we estimate natal dispersal in terms of numbers of individuals and identify units with positive or negative net migration, sources and sinks. 4. Overall, our approach moves capture-recapture analyses from estimating natal dispersal among a few spatial units to inferring dispersal networks and assessing their demographic consequences across large domains. Our approach is applicable to many spatially structured capture-recapture datasets, opening new opportunities for studying spatial population dynamics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

An Integrated Population Model to Incorporate Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity in Demographic Rates

O_LIDemographic processes in populations are inherently heterogeneous across both space and time. Many ecological models explicitly account for temporal heterogeneity in the demographic rates that govern these processes, but assume spatial homogeneity. Ignoring spatial heterogeneity can bias inference, limit predictive performance, and obscure key spatial structure in demographic rates. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a powerful framework to estimate spatio-temporal demographic rates by combining diverse ecological data sources collected from multiple sampling locations. However, to accomplish this, IPMs face significant statistical and computational hurdles, including misalignment between different data sources and the need to efficiently account for residual spatial autocorrelation. C_LIO_LIWe present a novel Bayesian spatially explicit integrated population model (sIPM) which integrates population count and capture-recapture data from multiple sampling locations to estimate and predict continuous spatio-temporal demographic rates, such as survival, recruitment and population growth rate, across large geographic domains. This framework employs a joint likelihood approach with change of support to flexibly accommodate spatial and spatio-temporal data misalignment, and incorporates a nearest-neighbor Gaussian process to efficiently model residual spatial autocorrelation and generate spatial predictions. C_LIO_LIWe assess the performance of our sIPM through an extensive simulation study. Results show that our approach provides unbiased and precise estimates and predictions of spatio-temporal demographic rates, even in the presence of significant data misalignment and residual spatial autocorrelation. We demonstrate the utility of our method by analyzing data on Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship program across the eastern coast of the United States from 2004-2014. This analysis results in maps of apparent survival, recruitment and population growth rate, thereby revealing important spatio-temporal variations in demographic rates that would have been obscured by traditional, spatially homogeneous IPMs. C_LIO_LIOur sIPM offers a robust and computationally efficient method for studying spatio-temporal variation in demographic processes across large areas, even in the presence of data misalignment and residual spatial autocorrelation. Ultimately, this framework, applicable to many ecological monitoring programs, facilitates the development of spatially targeted strategies necessary for effective conservation and management. C_LI

ecology↗