Msimang, V. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2024

Preliminary report on the molecular epidemiology of mpox, South Africa 2024

Mpox is an emerging viral infection and has since May 2022 been reported in a multi-country outbreak involving predominantly previously non-endemic countries. In addition, the number of cases of mpox is also rising in some endemic countries in Western and Central Africa. The disease is a notifiable medical condition in South Africa, with no cases reported before 2022. However, in 2022, coinciding with the peak of a multi-country mpox outbreak, five mpox cases were diagnosed in the country. Genomic sequencing and analysis revealed the presence of a monkeypox virus variant, which was circulating during the multi-country outbreak, namely Clade IIb sub-lineage B.1.7 (hMPXV). After the fifth case was reported in 2022, there were no cases detected for the following 20 months. In May 2024, mpox cases were again detected in South Africa leading to concerns that the virus may have been silently transmitting in the country since 2022. Genomic sequencing and analysis for 22 mpox cases reported during May to September 2024, were compared with sequences obtained from mpox cases reported in South Africa in 2022, and cases that have been reported globally. It was found that the sequences of the 2024 cases analysed in this study, clustered with Clade IIb hMPXV and sub-lineage B.1.20 and B.1.6 sequences. The results indicate that the detection of mpox cases in South Africa was an extension of the ongoing multi-country outbreak. Detection of different sub-lineages of hMPXV indicates reintroductions of the virus in the country since 2022, with local transmission of Clade IIb B1.20 hMPXV.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2023

Localized Rift Valley Fever Virus Persistence Depends on a High Transovarial Transmission Fraction

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has spread beyond continental Africa and threatens to follow West Nile, chikungunya and Zika viruses into the Americas. Its impact in new localities and the capacity to control future outbreaks, depends on whether and how RVFV persists at small spatial scales. Transovarial transmission (TOT) is hypothesized as an important mechanism for local persistence, yet its role in RVFV ecology remains poorly understood. We examine whether RVFV can persist locally via TOT while maintaining a realistic seroprevalence pattern of interepidemic and epidemic transmission. We developed a mechanistic, compartmental model of RVFV dynamics within a single host (sheep) and two vector (mosquito) populations, driven by temperate climatic factors. Decades-long persistence was possible in our simulations, which generally captured the observed outbreak patterns in central South Africa with a mean annual seroprevalence ([~]23%) within the range reported during interepidemic periods (5-40%). Persistence was only possible with a substantial TOT fraction and over a narrow range of parameters. The basic reproduction number (R0) was close to one at mean vector population sizes, suggesting a relatively limited expansion of the infected vector population during outbreaks. This limited expansion provides the system with the flexibility to support both low-level transmission and large outbreaks and, counterintuitively, large outbreaks resulted in smaller infected Aedes egg populations. This has important consequences for control: low-level vaccination may prevent large outbreaks without eliminating RVFV and local control efforts may be most effective immediately following an outbreak, suggesting elimination may be possible after emergence in temperate regions.

ecology↗