Supervised continuous land cover change detection in a critically endangered shrubland ecosystem
Existing efforts to continuously land cover change using satellite image time-series have mostly focused on forested ecosystems in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The notable difference in reflectance that occurs following deforestation allows land cover change to be detected with relative accuracy. Less progress has been made in detecting change in low productivity, disturbanceprone vegetation such as grasslands and shrublands, where natural dynamics can be difficult to distinguish from habitat loss. Renosterveld is a hyperdiverse, critically endangered shrubland ecosystem in South Africa with less than 5-10% of its original extent remaining in small, highly fragmented patches. I demonstrate that direct classification of satellite image time series using neural networks can accurately detect the transformation of Renosterveld within a few days of its occurrence, and that trained models are suitable for operational continuous monitoring. A dataset of precisely dated vegetation change events between 2016 and 2021 was obtained from daily, high resolution Planet labs satellite data. This dataset was then used to train and evaluate 1D convolutional neural networks and Transformers to continuously detect land cover change events in multivariate time-series of vegetation activity of Sentinel 2 satellite data as it becomes available. The best model correctly identified 89% of land cover change events at the pixel-level, achieving a f-score of 0.93, a 79% improvement over the f-score of 0.52 achieved using a method designed for forested ecosystems based on trend analysis. Models have been deployed to operational use and are producing updated detections of habitat loss every 10 days. There is great potential for supervised approaches to continuous monitoring of habitat loss in ecosystems with complex natural dynamics. A key limiting step is the development of accurately dated datasets of land cover change events with which to train machine learning classifiers.