Biology subjects

Moineau, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Moineau, S..

18 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Uncovering novel phage defense systems through genomic island analysis in Streptococcus thermophilus

Bacteria encode diverse antiviral defense systems, yet the evolutionary reservoirs that generate this immune innovation remain poorly defined. Although genomic context has been instrumental in discovering defense systems, genomic islands (GIs), variable chromosomal regions enriched in defense genes and proteins of unknown function, have not been systematically explored as sources of new bacterial immunity. Here, using comparative genomics of Streptococcus thermophilus, we identified 30 defense-associated GIs displaying extensive accessory gene diversity. Investigation of candidate loci from three GIs uncovered 15 previously uncharacterized antiviral systems, including 10 with novel architectures or features, revealing the potential within even a small subset of GIs. Several systems were not located near known defense genes, highlighting that GI-based discovery complements the traditional guilt-by-association approach, revealing systems that would otherwise remain undetected. Together, our findings establish GIs as reservoirs of antiviral innovation and provide a framework for uncovering the diversity of bacterial immune systems.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Isolation and characterization of novel filamentous phages from Swiss-type cheeses infecting the Gram-positive bacterium Propionibacterium freudenreichii

Filamentous phages infecting Gram-positive bacteria remain largely unexplored. Notably, only two filamentous phages, B5 and Philemon infecting Propionibacterium freudenreichii, have been described to date in the phage-rich dairy ecosystem. Although both were genomically characterized, only B5 was confirmed to be an infective filamentous single-stranded DNA phage. The aim of this study was to isolate and characterize new filamentous phages from Swiss-type cheese to investigate their diversity, structural features, host specificity, and potential adaptation to the dairy environment. Thirty raw and pasteurized milk cheeses from France were screened for phages infecting P. freudenreichii strains. Eleven phages were isolated, nine of which displayed a filamentous morphology. Named MINOG1 to MINOG9, these filamentous phages exhibited genomic features typical of this morphotype, including small single-stranded DNA genomes with collinear genes organized into functional modules. Comparison with B5 and Philemon revealed sequence divergence ranging from 0.1% to 7%. These phages also exhibited a diverse host range. To further explore phage-P. freudenreichii interactions, we screened the genomes of the strains used in this study, as well as additional genomes retrieved from the NCBI database, for CRISPR spacers predicted to target these filamentous phages. Numerous strains contained CRISPR spacers showing 79 to 100% identity to genomic regions of these phages. Two P. freudenreichii strains displayed markedly different phage resistance levels despite exact spacer-protospacer matches with phages B5, MINOG1, MINOG2, and MINOG8. Conversely, several strains were resistant to nearly all tested phages despite lacking CRISPR spacers targeting them suggesting the presence of additional defense systems in P. freudenreichii. IMPORTANCEFilamentous phages can play important roles in bacterial ecology by modulating host physiology, population dynamics, and bacterial adaptation to specific environments. However, filamentous phages infecting Gram-positive bacteria remain among the least explored bacterial viruses, and their diversity, ecology, and interactions with their hosts are still poorly understood. This knowledge gap is particularly relevant in dairy ecosystems, where phages are abundant and can influence microbial communities and fermentation processes. In characterizing nine new filamentous phages infecting Propionibacterium freudenreichii from Swiss-type cheeses, this study expands the known diversity of filamentous phages associated with Gram-positive bacteria and provides new insights into phage-host interactions and bacterial defense strategies in dairy-associated bacteria.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Predictable adaptive evolution of a phage endolysin through substrate recognition optimization

Bacteriophages release progeny by producing endolysins that degrade the bacterial cell wall. While the frequent horizontal transfer of endolysins suggests substantial evolutionary plasticity, the mechanisms by which these enzymes adapt to new phage-host contexts remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the evolutionary dynamics and structural mechanisms governing endolysin adaptation following experimental evolution of a chimeric phage generated via heterologous endolysin exchange between phages infecting different hosts. Using replicate experimental evolution and time-resolved PacBio sequencing, we identified a dominant, highly reproducible adaptive trajectory characterized by the stepwise fixation of three key mutations. This constrained mutational order correlated with incremental gains in enzymatic activity, reflecting a rugged yet predictable fitness landscape. High-resolution structural analyses revealed that these substitutions lie exclusively outside the catalytic site; instead, they enhance substrate recognition through electrostatic tuning, optimized hydrophobic packing, and local conformational refinement, resulting in significantly higher binding affinity. While the adaptive trajectory was largely conserved, one replicate followed an alternative path, highlighting the interplay between selection and historical contingency. Adaptation was further shaped by a functional trade-off, whereby increased lytic activity on the novel host was accompanied by reduced activity on the ancestral host, consistent with antagonistic pleiotropy. Genome-wide sequencing additionally identified a compensatory mutation in a lytic transglycosylase, suggesting coordinated evolution of the broader lysis machinery. Together, these results demonstrate that endolysins evolve through reproducible adaptive walks constrained by structure, selection, and trade-offs, providing a mechanistic framework for understanding enzyme evolution and informing rational protein engineering.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Cross-family and phage-specific gene requirements for Klebsiella infection revealed by scalable RB-TnSeq genetic screens

Bacteriophages are being cataloged at an accelerating pace and are recognized as key players in nutrient and energy cycling across ecosystems. Yet the bacterial genetic determinants that govern phage-host specificity and infection success remain poorly understood, particularly in clinically and ecologically important genera such as Klebsiella where prior receptor characterization has been almost entirely limited to capsulated strains. Here we used a randomly barcoded, genome-wide, loss-of-function transposon mutant library (RB-TnSeq) of Klebsiella sp. M5al, a naturally acapsular, nitrogen-fixing rhizobacterium, to generate the first systematic, cross-family map of phage receptor gene dependencies in Klebsiella. Challenging the library against 25 double-stranded DNA phages spanning five families in 213 parallel assays, we identified 42 bacterial genes associated with phage infection, of which 15 had no prior association with phage infection in any bacterial system. Disruption of surface receptor biosynthesis genes conferred cross-resistance across multiple phage families, while intracellular gene disruptions had predominantly phage-specific effects. Clonal validation of eight genes confirmed LPS outer core biosynthesis genes as primary receptor determinants alongside additional host factors spanning outer membrane transport, cofactor biosynthesis, and two-component signaling. Comparative analysis across all 25 phages revealed that phage genus rather than family is the stronger predictor of host gene dependency profiles, a finding with direct implications for the functional annotation of uncharacterized phage isolates and rational phage cocktail design. Together, these findings provide a community resource for linking phage genomic diversity to functional host interaction space in this ecologically and clinically important genus. Author SummaryBacteriophages, or phages, are viruses that infect bacteria and play central roles in shaping microbial communities across ecosystems. Despite their ecological importance, the bacterial genes that determine infection outcomes remain poorly understood. Using a scalable barcoded transposon sequencing (RB-TnSeq) approach, we mapped host gene requirements for infection by 25 diverse phages of Klebsiella sp. M5al, a soil-associated plant-growth-promoting bacterium. We identified 42 bacterial genes associated with phage infection, spanning surface receptors, transcriptional regulators, and metabolic and protein-folding pathways. Infection strategies broadly clustered by phage genus and family, while phage-specific differences arose primarily in intracellular processes such as transcription and protein folding. These findings reveal both conserved and phage-specific host interactions that define infection strategies and establish a scalable framework for linking phage genomic diversity to function, with practical implications for predicting phage host range, designing phage cocktails for therapy, and understanding phage-driven dynamics in natural microbial communities.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Microbial community dynamics in a traditional Swiss mountain cheese over 142 years of cheesemaking

The history of cheesemaking is deeply intertwined with the evolution of microbial communities, from spontaneous fermentation to modern, standardized practices. Despite centuries of refinement, the most profound shifts in cheese production occurred in the last century, driven by advances in microbiology and production technologies. These changes have shaped the bacterial and viral communities within cheese, yet the specific impacts remain underexplored. Using shotgun metagenomics and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing approaches, we examined microbial community changes in Raclette du Valais, a traditional Swiss cheese, using preserved cheese wheels from 1875 to 2017 from the same alpine dairy in Switzerland. Our results reveal that significant shifts in microbial community composition coincide with changes in production practices. Notably, the oldest cheese harbored a distinct bacterial community, dominated by Lactiplantibacillus paraplantarum, Streptococcus thermophilus, Pseudolactococcus laudensis, and taxa commonly associated with the gut environment, indicative of spontaneous fermentation and the use of calf stomach for milk coagulation. Functionally, we can also track the rise and fall of antibiotic resistance genes mirroring their use. Furthermore, we found that domestication of lactic acid bacteria predates the studied period, and that bacteriophage genera detected in 1875 are representatives of those commonly found in modern cheesemaking. These findings highlight how microbial communities have adapted to changing production methods and how human intervention, through practices like antibiotic use in animal husbandry, has influenced these ecosystems in remote alpine cheesemaking. Significance StatementCheesemaking relies on complex microbial ecosystems shaped by long-standing human practices, yet how these communities responded to the modernization of food production has remained largely unknown. By analyzing DNA preserved in historical cheese wheels from a single alpine dairy, we examine microbial community changes across a key technological transition. We show that modernization impacted bacterial composition and functional potential, that cheese microbiomes record the rise of agricultural antibiotic use, and that major cheese-associated phages and domesticated starter bacteria were already established over a century ago. These findings demonstrate that historical cheeses preserve long-term microbial records and offer a glimpse how changes in food production practices shape fermented-food microbiomes.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2025

Strain-level and phenotypic stability contrasts with plasmid and phage variability in water kefir communities

Microbial communities can change in response to top-down factors, such as phages, and bottom-up factors, such as nutrient availability. Previous studies have successfully investigated bacterial species-level dynamics, but diversity and interactions beyond the species-level is usually lacking. Traditional fermented foods, such as water kefir, provide ideal systems to study ecological and evolutionary dynamics beyond the species-level, as they are simple and trackable systems that are cultivated in non-sterile, nutrient-rich environments which foster microbial growth and invasion. Despite the central role of only a few lactic acid bacteria for fermentation, little is known about the genomic diversity and dynamics of these community members over time. Within the framework of a graduate course, 35 students propagated water kefir across several generations under different nutrient conditions and in different households to study microbial responses over time. We found that water kefir communities were generally stable at the species-level, with only rare bacterial species replaced over long timescales (more than 2 years). While we observed little strain-level diversity with few strain replacements over long timescales, closely related strains exhibited variation in accessory gene content, often encoded on plasmids, particularly those involved in ecologically meaningful functions such as sugar utilization pathways and phage defense systems. We hypothesise that these genomic variations could reflect the adaptations of strains to different sugars and phages. Consistent with this, we observed a diverse array of phages, many likely originating from the unique household environments. By documenting the genomic landscape of microbial species, strains, plasmids, and phages, this study advances our understanding of the diversity and dynamics of microbial communities in fermented foods. Furthermore, our course material is publicly available and offers a blueprint for bridging the gap between teaching and research, inspiring the next generation of scientists to unravel the complexities of microbial ecosystems. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=137 SRC="FIGDIR/small/640646v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (31K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@56db6borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@5f6dc6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11fff14org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1a37a9f_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2024

Strengthening Phage Resistance of Streptococcus thermophilus by Leveraging Complementary Defense Systems

CRISPR-Cas and restriction-modification systems represent the core defense arsenal in Streptococcus thermophilus to block lytic phages, but their effectiveness is compromised by phages encoding anti-CRISPR proteins (ACRs) and other counter-defense strategies. Here, we explored the resistome of 263 S. thermophilus strains to uncover other anti-phage systems. The defense landscape of S. thermophilus was enriched by 21 accessory defense systems, 13 of which had not been previously investigated in this species. Experimental validation of 17 systems with 14 phages showed varying anti-phage levels, uncovering intra-genus specificities among the five viral genera infecting S. thermophilus. Interestingly, the resistance levels were even higher when some defense systems (Dodola and PD-Lambda-1) were expressed from a low-copy plasmid or when integrated into the chromosome. We also observed a synergistic effect when combining Gabija with CRISPR-Cas, underscoring the potential of these additional defense systems for developing more robust industrial S. thermophilus strains, particularly against ACR-encoding phages.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2024

HEPN-AbiV is an RNase in the antiphage system AbiV

Prokaryotes and eukaryotes possess defense systems, which can be either innate or acquired, to protect against viral infections. At the bacterial population level, abortive infection (Abi) serves as an innate immune defense mechanism against phage invasion. The AbiV antiviral system is prevalent in several bacterial genomes and exhibits diverse characteristics in terms of gene composition and evolution. Our investigation into the Lactococcus AbiV system revealed a novel two-component system, abiV1 and abiV2, both of which are essential for its function as a type III toxin-antitoxin system. The toxin component AbiV (product of abiV1) is an RNase belonging to the HEPN (Higher Eukaryotes and Prokaryotes Nucleotide-binding) superfamily as it carries the consensus Rx4-6H motif. In vivo assays coupled with mass spectrometry showed that the lactococcal AbiV was expressed in the presence or absence of phages while in vitro experiments demonstrated that AbiV1 degraded ribosomal RNA but not mRNA. On the other hand, the antitoxin component (abiV2) was found to function as an RNA molecule that inhibited the nuclease activity of the AbiV1 toxin. The structural characterization of AbiV revealed that this RNase utilizes a large patch of positively charged area across the dimer to anchor RNA molecules. In addition, we showed that the AbiV N-terminal region (amino acids 1 to 23) is crucial for its RNase activity as a truncated AbiV lacking this segment adopted distinct conformational states incompatible with RNA binding. This study provided novel insights into the mode of action of the antiviral system AbiV.

biochemistry↗

bioRxiv2023

Dairy practices select for thermostable endolysins in phages

Endolysins are phage lytic enzymes that degrade the bacterial cell wall to release phage progeny. We found that the diversity of endolysins is unsuspectedly low and dominated by a single structural type in distinct phages that infect Streptococcus thermophilus. Through X-ray crystallography, we discovered that this type of endolysin contains a highly conserved calcium-binding motif in its cell wall binding domain. Inactivation of the motif in the purified endolysin or in the phage genome revealed its key role in stabilizing the enzyme under conditions that mimic the cheesemaking process, including at elevated temperatures. Fermented dairy products such as yogurt and cheeses are incubated or cooked at higher temperatures and require the addition of thermophilic lactic acid bacteria such as S. thermophilus to drive milk fermentation. It appears that dairy practices have influenced the genetic signatures of streptococcal phages by selecting for thermostable endolysins, which in turn have limited their diversity.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2023

The influence of early life exposures on the infant gut virome

Large cohort studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of the factors that influence the development of the bacterial component of the gut microbiome (GM) during the first years of life. However, the factors that shape the colonization by other important GM members such as the viral fraction remain more elusive. Most gut viruses are bacteriophages (phages), i.e., viruses attacking bacteria in a host specific manner, and to a lesser extent, but also widely present, eukaryotic viruses, including viruses attacking human cells. Here, we utilize the deeply phenotyped COPSAC2010 birth cohort consisting of 700 infants to investigate how social, pre-, peri- and postnatal factors may influence the gut virome composition at one year of age, where fecal virome data was available from 645 infants. Among the different exposures studied, having older siblings and living in an urban vs. rural area had the strongest impact on gut virome composition. Differential abundance analysis from a total of 16,118 viral operational taxonomic units (vOTUs) (mainly phages, but also 6.1% eukaryotic viruses) identified 2,105 vOTUs varying with environmental exposures, of which 5.9% were eukaryotic viruses and the rest was phages. Bacterial hosts for these phages were mainly predicted to be within the Bacteroidaceae, Prevotellaceae, and Ruminococcaceae families, as determined by CRISPR spacer matches. Spearman correlation coefficients indicated strong co-abundance trends of vOTUs and their targeted bacterial host, which underlined the predicted phage-host connections. Further, our findings show that some gut viruses encode important metabolic functions and how the abundance of genes encoding these functions is influenced by environmental exposures. Genes that were significantly associated with early life exposures were found in a total of 42 vOTUs. 18 of these vOTUs had their life styles predicted, with 17 of them having a temperate lifestyle. These 42 vOTUs carried genes coding for enzymes involved in alanine, aspartate and glutamate metabolism, glycolysis-gluconeogenesis, as well as fatty acid biosynthesis. The latter implies that these phages could be involved in the utilization and degradation of major dietary components and affect infant health by influencing the metabolic capacity of their bacterial host. Given the importance of the GM in early life for maturation of the immune system and maintenance of metabolic health, these findings provide a valuable source of information for understanding early life factors that predispose for autoimmune and metabolic disorders.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

Building pyramids against the evolutionary emergence of pathogens

Mutations allowing pathogens to escape host immunity promote the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous host populations and can lead to major epidemics. Understanding the conditions favoring these evolutionary emergences is key for the development of durable control strategies against pathogens. Here we compare the durability of three different control strategies: (i) a mixing strategy where the host population results from the mix of two single-resistant genotypes, (ii) a pyramiding strategy where host resistance is due to a single double-resistant genotype, (iii) a combining strategy where host resistance is due to a mix between a single-resistant genotype and a double-resistant genotype. First, we use evolutionary epidemiology theory to clarify the interplay between demographic stochasticity and evolutionary dynamics to show that the pyramiding strategy always yields lower probability of evolutionary emergence. Second, we confirm experimentally these predictions using virulent bacteriophages introduced in bacterial populations where we can manipulate the diversity and the depth of CRISPR immunity. Our work shows that pyramiding multiple defenses into the same individual host and avoiding mixing with single-defense strategies is a robust way to protect individuals and populations against pathogen evolutionary emergence. These results have practical implications for the optimal deployment of host resistance in agriculture and biotechnology but also for the optimal use of vaccination against human pathogens.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

New Vista into Origins of Viruses from a Prototypic ssDNA Phage

Viruses play a central role in all ecological niches; the origin of viruses, however, remains an open question. While phylogenetic analysis of distantly related viruses is hampered by a lack of detectable sequence similarity, structural biology can reveal conserved capsid protein structures that facilitate the study of distant evolutionary relationships. Here, we characterize the lipid-containing ssDNA temperate bacteriophage {Phi}CjT23, which is infecting Flavobacterium sp. (Bacteroidetes). We further detected {Phi}CjT23-like sequences in the genome of strains belonging to several Flavobacterium species. The virion structure determined by cryogenic electron microscopy revealed similarities to members of the viral kingdom Bamfordvirae that currently consists solely of dsDNA viruses. Common to these viruses, infecting hosts from all domains of life, is a major capsid protein composed of two upright {beta}-sandwiches. The minimalistic structure of {Phi}CjT23 suggests that this phage serves as a model for the last common ancestor between ssDNA and dsDNA viruses in the Bamfordvirae. Both {Phi}CjT23 and the related phage FLiP infect Flavobacterium species found in several environments, suggesting that these types of viruses have a global distribution and shared evolutionary origin. Detailed comparisons to related, more complex viruses not only expand our knowledge about this group of viruses but also provide a rare glimpse into early virus evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

CRISPR-Cas provides limited phage immunity to a prevalent gut bacterium in gnotobiotic mice

Many prokaryotes harbor the adaptive CRISPR-Cas system, which stores small nucleotide fragments from previous invasions of nucleic acids via viruses or plasmids. This molecular archive blocks further invaders carrying identical or similar nucleotide sequences. However, very few of these systems have been experimentally confirmed to be active in gut bacteria. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that the type I-C CRISPR-Cas system of the prevalent gut bacterium Eggerthella lenta can specifically target and cleave foreign DNA in vitro by using a plasmid transformation assay. We also show that the CRISPR-Cas system acquires new immunities (spacers) from the genome of a virulent E. lenta phage using traditional phage-assays in vitro but also in vivo using gnotobiotic (GB) mice. An increased number of spacer acquisition events were observed when E. lenta was exposed to a low multiplicity of infection in vitro, and three phage genes were found to contain protospacer hotspots. Interestingly, much less new spacer acquisitions were detected in vivo than in vitro. Longitudinal analysis of phage-bacteria interactions showed sustained coexistence in the gut of GB mice, with phage abundance being approximately one log higher than the bacteria. Our findings show that while the type I-C CRISPR-Cas system is active in vitro and in vivo, a highly virulent phage in vitro was still able co-exist with its bacterial host in vivo. Taken altogether, our results suggest that the CRISPR-Cas defense system of E. lenta provides only partial immunity in the gut.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Competition and coevolution drive the evolution and the diversification of CRISPR immunity

The diversity of resistance challenges the ability of pathogens to spread and to exploit host populations [1-3]. Yet, how this host diversity evolves over time remains unclear because it depends on the interplay between intraspecific competition among host genotypes and coevolution with pathogens. Here we study experimentally the effect of coevolving phage populations on the diversification of bacterial CRISPR immunity across space and time. We demonstrate that the negative-frequency-dependent selection generated by coevolution is a powerful force that maintains host resistance diversity and selects for new resistance mutations in the host. We also find that host evolution is driven by asymmetries in competitive abilities among different host genotypes. Even if the fittest host genotypes are targeted preferentially by the evolving phages they often escape extinctions through the acquisition of new CRISPR immunity. Together, these fluctuating selective pressures maintain diversity, but not by preserving the pre-existing host composition. Instead, we repeatedly observe the introduction of new resistance genotypes stemming from the fittest hosts in each population. These results highlight the importance of competition on the transient dynamics of host-pathogen coevolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Manual resolution of virome dark matter uncovers hundreds of viral families in the infant gut

The gut microbiome (GM) is shaped through infancy and plays a major role in determining susceptibility to chronic inflammatory diseases later in life. Bacteriophages (phages) are known to modulate bacterial populations in numerous ecosystems, including the gut. However, virome data is difficult to analyse because it mostly consists of unknown viruses, i.e. viral dark matter. Here, we manually resolved the viral dark matter in the largest human virome study published to date. Fecal viromes from a cohort of 647 infants at 1 year of age were deeply sequenced and analysed through successive rounds of clustering and curation. We uncovered more than ten thousand viral species distributed over 248 viral families falling within 17 viral order-level clades. Most of the defined viral families and orders were novel and belonged to the Caudoviricetes viral class. Bacterial hosts were predicted for 79% of the viral species using CRISPR spacers, including those in metagenomes from the same fecal samples. While Bacteroides-infecting Crassphages were present, novel viral families were more predominant, including phages infecting Clostridiales and Bifidobacterium. Phage lifestyles were determined for more than three thousand caudoviral species. Lifestyles were homogeneous at the family level for 149 Caudoviricetes families, including 32 families that were found to be virulent, while 117 were temperate. Virulent phage families were more abundant but temperate ones were more diverse and widespread. Together, the viral families found in this study represent a major expansion of existing bacteriophage taxonomy.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Analysis of viromes and microbiomes from pig fecal samples reveals that phages and prophages are not vectors of antibiotic resistance genes

Understanding the transmission of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is critical for human health. For this, it is necessary to identify which type of mobile genetic elements is able to spread them from animal reservoirs into human pathogens. Previous research suggests that in pig feces, ARGs may be encoded by bacteriophages. However, convincing proof for phage-encoded ARGs in pig viromes is still lacking, because of bacterial DNA contaminating issues. We collected 14 pig fecal samples and performed deep sequencing on both highly purified viral fractions and total microbiota, in order to investigate phage and prophage-encoded ARGs. We show that ARGs are absent from the genomes of active, virion-forming phages (below 0.02% of viral contigs from viromes), but present in three prophages, representing 0.02% of the viral contigs identified in the microbial dataset. However, the corresponding phages were not detected in the viromes, and their genetic maps suggest they might be defective. Furthermore, our dataset allows for the first time a comprehensive view of the interplay between prophages and viral particles.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases in heterogeneous host populations

Emergence and re-emergence of pathogens are notoriously difficult to predict. The erratic nature of those events is reinforced by the stochastic nature of pathogen evolution during the early phase of an epidemic. For instance, mutations allowing pathogens to escape host resistance may boost pathogen spread and promote emergence. Yet, the ecological factors that govern such evolutionary emergence remain elusive both because of the lack of ecological realism of current theoretical frameworks and the difficulty of experimentally testing their predictions. Here we develop a theoretical model to explore the effects of the heterogeneity of the host population on the probability of pathogen emergence, with or without pathogen evolution. We show that evolutionary emergence and the spread of escape mutations in the pathogen population is more likely to occur when the host population contains an intermediate proportion of resistant hosts. We also show that lower pathogen inoculum size and higher diversity of host resistance decrease the probability of evolutionary emergence. Crucially, we present experimental confirmations of these predictions using lytic bacteriophages infecting their bacterial hosts containing diverse CRISPR-Cas immune defenses. We discuss the implications of these results for cross-species spillover and for the management of emerging infectious diseases.\n\nSignificance statementCan we predict the emergence of infectious diseases? The probability that an epidemic breaks out is highly dependent on the ability of the pathogen to acquire new adaptive mutations and to induce evolutionary emergence. Forecasting pathogen emergence thus requires a good understanding of the interplay between epidemiology and evolution taking place at the onset of an outbreak. Here, we provide a comprehensive theoretical framework to analyze the impact of host population heterogeneity on the probability of pathogen evolutionary emergence. We use this model to predict the impact of the fraction of susceptible hosts, the inoculum size of the pathogen and the diversity of host resistance on pathogen emergence. Our experiments using lytic bacteriophages and CRISPR-resistant bacteria support our theoretical predictions.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Immune Loss as a Driver of Coexistence During Host-Phage Coevolution

Bacteria and their viral pathogens face constant pressure for augmented immune and infective capabilities, respectively. Under this reciprocally imposed selective regime, we expect to see a runaway evolutionary arms race, ultimately leading to the extinction of one species. Despite this prediction, in many systems host and pathogen coexist with minimal coevolution even when well-mixed. Previous work explained this puzzling phenomenon by invoking fitness tradeoffs, which can diminish an arms race dynamic. Here we propose that the regular loss of immunity by the bacterial host can also produce host-phage coexistence. We pair a general model of immunity with an experimental and theoretical case study of the CRISPR-Cas immune system to contrast the behavior of tradeoff and loss mechanisms in well-mixed systems. We find that, while both mechanisms can produce stable coexistence, only immune loss does so robustly within realistic parameter ranges.

ecology↗