Mobley, D. L. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

Overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of small organic molecules to biological macro-molecules can greatly accelerate drug discovery by reducing the number of compounds that must be synthesized to realize desired potency and selectivity goals. Unfortunately, the process of assessing the accuracy of current computational approaches to affinity prediction against binding data to biological macro-molecules is frustrated by several challenges, such as slow conformational dynamics, multiple titratable groups, and the lack of high-quality blinded datasets. Over the last several SAMPL blind challenge exercises, host-guest systems have emerged as a practical and effective way to circumvent these challenges in assessing the predictive performance of current-generation quantitative modeling tools, while still providing systems capable of possessing tight binding affinities. Here, we present an overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge, which featured three supramolecular hosts: octa-acid (OA), the closely related tetra-endo-methyl-octa-acid (TEMOA), and cucurbit[8]uril (CB8), along with 21 small organic guest molecules. A total of 119 entries were received from 10 participating groups employing a variety of methods that spanned from electronic structure and movable type calculations in implicit solvent to alchemical and potential of mean force strategies using empirical force fields with explicit solvent models. While empirical models tended to obtain better performance than first-principle methods, it was not possible to identify a single approach that consistently provided superior results across all host-guest systems and statistical metrics. Moreover, the accuracy of the methodologies generally displayed a substantial dependence on the system considered, emphasizing the need for host diversity in blind evaluations. Several entries exploited previous experimental measurements of similar host-guest systems in an effort to improve their physical-based predictions via some manner of rudimentary machine learning; while this strategy succeeded in reducing systematic errors, it did not correspond to an improvement in statistical correlation. Comparison to previous rounds of the host-guest binding free energy challenge highlights an overall improvement in the correlation obtained by the affinity predictions for OA and TEMOA systems, but a surprising lack of improvement regarding root mean square error over the past several challenge rounds. The data suggests that further refinement of force field parameters, as well as improved treatment of chemical effects (e.g., buffer salt conditions, protonation states) may be required to further enhance predictive accuracy.

biophysics↗

bioRxiv2018

pKa measurements for the SAMPL6 prediction challenge for a set of kinase inhibitor-like fragments

Determining the net charge and protonation states populated by a small molecule in an environment of interest or the cost of altering those protonation states upon transfer to another environment is a prerequisite for predicting its physicochemical and pharmaceutical properties. The environment of interest can be aqueous, an organic solvent, a protein binding site, or a lipid bilayer. Predicting the protonation state of a small molecule is essential to predicting its interactions with biological macromolecules using computational models. Incorrectly modeling the dominant protonation state, shifts in dominant protonation state, or the population of significant mixtures of protonation states can lead to large modeling errors that degrade the accuracy of physical modeling. Low accuracy hinders the use of physical modeling approaches for molecular design. For small molecules, the acid dissociation constant (pKa) is the primary quantity needed to determine the ionic states populated by a molecule in an aqueous solution at a given pH. As a part of SAMPL6 community challenge, we organized a blind pKa prediction component to assess the accuracy with which contemporary pKa prediction methods can predict this quantity, with the ultimate aim of assessing the expected impact on modeling errors this would induce. While a multitude of approaches for predicting pKa values currently exist, predicting the pKas of drug-like molecules can be difficult due to challenging properties such as multiple titratable sites, heterocycles, and tautomerization. For this challenge, we focused on set of 24 small molecules selected to resemble selective kinase inhibitors--an important class of therapeutics replete with titratable moieties. Using a Sirius T3 instrument that performs automated acid-base titrations, we used UV absorbance-based pKa measurements to construct a high-quality experimental reference dataset of macroscopic pKas for the evaluation of computational pKa prediction methodologies that was utilized in the SAMPL6 pKa challenge. For several compounds in which the microscopic protonation states associated with macroscopic pKas were ambiguous, we performed follow-up NMR experiments to disambiguate the microstates involved in the transition. This dataset provides a useful standard benchmark dataset for the evaluation of pKa prediction methodologies on kinase inhibitor-like compounds.\n\nAbbreviations

biophysics↗