bioRxiv2026
Kinase family proteins constitute the second largest protein class targeted in drug development efforts, most prominently to treat cancer, but also several other diseases associated with kinase dysfunction. In this work we focus on type II kinase inhibitors which bind to the "classical" inactive conformation of the protein kinase catalytic domain where the DFG motif has a "DFG-out" orientation and the activation loop is folded. Many Tyrosine kinases (TKs) exhibit strong binding affinity with a wide spectrum of type II inhibitors while serine/threonine kinases (STKs) often bind more weakly. Recent work suggests this difference is largely due to differences in the folded to extended conformational equilibrium of the activation loop between TKs vs. STKs. The binding affinity of a type II inhibitor to its kinase target can be decomposed into a sum of two contributions: (1) the free energy cost to reorganize the protein from the active to inactive state, and (2) the binding affinity of the type II inhibitor to the inactive kinase conformation. In previous work we used a Potts statistical energy potential based on sequence co-variation to thread sequences over ensembles of active and inactive kinase structures. The threading function was used to estimate the free energy cost to reorganize kinases from the active to classical inactive conformation, and we showed that this estimator is consistent with the results of molecular dynamics free energy simulations for a small set of STKs and TKs. In the current study, we analyze the results of a large-scale study of the binding affinities of 50 type II inhibitors to 348 kinases, of which the results for 16 of the 50 type II inhibitors were reported in an earlier study (the "Davis dataset"); the binding data for the remaining 34 type II inhibitors to the panel of 348 kinases were recently obtained (the "Schrodinger dataset"). We use the Potts statistical energy model to investigate the contribution of protein reorganization to the selectivity of the large kinase panel against the set of 50 type II inhibitors, and find that protein reorganization makes a significant contribution to the selectivity. The AUC of the receiver-operator characteristic curve is [~]0.8. We report the results of an internal "blind test", that shows how Potts threading energies can provide more accurate estimates of kinase selectivity than corresponding predictions using experimental results of small sample size. We discuss why two STK phylogenetic kinase families, STE and CMGC, appear to contain many outliers, and how to improve the ability to predict kinase selectivity with a more complete analysis of the kinase conformational landscape. We compare the performance of Potts threading for predicting binding properties of the large set of (50) Type II inhibitors to 348 kinases, with those of a sequence-based purely machine learning model, DeepDTAGen, a publicly available machine learning model that was trained on the complete Davis dataset, including both Type I and Type II kinase inhibitors. We observe that DeepDTAGen performs well on binding predictions for the 16 type II inhibitors in the Davis dataset, but performs poorly on binding predictions for the 34 type II inhibitors against 348 kinases in the Schrodinger dataset.