Biology subjects

Medlock, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Medlock, J..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A faster incubation explains Usutu leading West Nile in temperate Europe

Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that has recently expanded northwards in Europe and become endemic in the UK. USUV emergence often precedes the closely related West Nile virus (WNV), potentially reflecting differences in epidemiological parameters. One key parameter is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), the time taken for a mosquito to become infectious after a blood meal. Here we present the first quantitative estimate of the temperature dependent EIP for USUV in the vector Culex pipiens molestus. We were able to quantify the shortening of the USUV EIP from 68.06 days (95% CrI: 38.62 to 141.04) at 17 {degrees}C to 12.35 days (95% CrI: 8.10 to 17.09) at 25{degrees}C. This was achieved by re-analysing laboratory data with a bespoke Bayesian model that accounted for important features of the experimental design. Under UK summer temperatures, the median EIP of USUV is 37.75% (95% CrI: 3.38 to 55.68) shorter than that of WNV, and the potential transmission season of USUV is both longer and geographically more extensive. Under RCP8.5 climate projections, WNV transmission suitability could match or exceed current USUV levels between 2055 and 2065, highlighting the future threat to the UK from emerging mosquito borne pathogens. Our findings support USUV as a precursor for WNV in Europe and provide a robust characterisation of a key epidemiological parameter of USUV, enabling accurate modelling of its transmission dynamics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Repeated and widespread introduction of a mosquito-borne virus, but wildlife impact remains localised in urban area

Mosquito-borne viruses are emerging in new regions with increasing regularity. Shifting climatic envelopes, especially in temperate regions, and altered enzootic cycles are changing likelihoods of persistence, meaning new approaches are required to predict and monitor establishment. Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis, which was first recorded in the United Kingdom in wild birds and mosquitoes in 2020. By developing a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating enhanced passive and active surveillance of wild birds, we discovered previously unrecorded introductions and identified USUV persistence and geographic expansion. By combining molecular and serological testing with citizen science derived datasets, we show an associated marked decline in a common, widespread, and highly susceptible host species (Eurasian Blackbird, Turdus merula). However, the clearest continuous signal of host population decline remains localised to a large urban area, despite the much wider virus distribution. This may be a consequence of an urban heat island effect and associated increase in length of the mosquito active season. Our results indicate that the establishment and impact of future mosquito-borne pathogens in temperate zones, anticipated under climate change, may first be most apparent in urban areas. Consequently, enhanced surveillance efforts in urban areas could provide an efficient mechanism for detecting novel pathogen emergence. The epidemiology of emerging vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate areas, depends on the interplay between climate, land-use and available hosts; therefore, considering each in isolation will not be sufficient to reliably inform surveillance or response planning.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Lack of Vector Competence in UK Culex pipiens molestus for Oropouche Virus

Oropouche virus (OROV) is an orthobunyavirus (Peribunyaviridae) that has caused recurrent outbreaks in South America and has recently expanded into the Caribbean, with various biting midge and mosquito species considered vectors. Recent imported cases to Europe and North America have raised concerns about the potential for local transmission in non-endemic areas. To assess this risk in the United Kingdom, we investigated the vector competence of Culex pipiens molestus (Cx. molestus), a human-biting mosquito common in urban environments. Laboratory-reared adult females were fed a bloodmeal containing a Cuban 2024 OROV outbreak strain (240023) and maintained at 27{degrees}C. Of 64 individuals tested at 12-s14 days post-infection via plaque assay, none were positive for OROV in bodies, indicating no evidence of infection and subsequently limited or no vector competence potential. These results provide evidence that UK populations of Cx. molestus are unlikely to support OROV transmission, thereby refining assessments of OROV emergence risk in temperate settings. Further studies are needed to test other putative UK mosquito vectors, as well as Culicoides biting midge species to fully assess the potential for OROV transmission in this region.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2024

UK mosquitoes are competent to transmit Usutu virus at native temperatures

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging zoonotic virus transmitted primarily by Culex mosquitoes. Since its introduction into Europe from Africa during the late 20th century, it has caused mortality within populations of passerine birds and captive owls, and can on occasion lead to disease in humans. USUV was first detected in the UK in 2020 and has become endemic, having been detected in either birds and/or mosquitoes every subsequent year. Importantly, the vector competence of indigenous mosquitoes for the circulating UK (London) USUV strain at representative regional temperatures is still to be elucidated. This study assessed the vector competence of five field-caught mosquito species/biotypes, Culex pipiens biotype molestus, Culex pipiens biotype pipiens, Culex torrentium, Culiseta annulata and Aedes detritus for the London USUV strain, with infection rates (IR) and transmission rates (TR) evaluated between 7 to 28 days post-infection. Infection and transmission were observed in all species/biotypes aside from Ae. detritus and Cx. torrentium. For Cx. pipiens biotype molestus, transmission potential suggests these populations should be monitored further for their role in transmission to humans. Furthermore, both Cx. pipiens biotype pipiens and Cs. annulata were shown to be competent vectors at 19{degrees}C indicating the potential for geographical spread of the virus to other UK regions.

ecology↗