McGough, L. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2024

A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin

Many pathogens evolve to escape immunity, yet it remains difficult to predict whether immune pressure will lead to diversification, serial replacement of one variant by another, or more complex patterns. Pathogen strain dynamics are mediated by cross-protective immunity, whereby exposure to one strain partially protects against infection by antigenically diverged strains. There is growing evidence that this protection is influenced by early exposures, a phenomenon referred to as original antigenic sin (OAS) or imprinting. In this paper, we derive new constraints on the emergence of the pattern of successive strain replacements demonstrated by influenza, SARS-CoV-2, seasonal coronaviruses, and other pathogens. We find that OAS implies that the limited diversity found with successive strain replacement can only be maintained if R0 is less than a threshold set by the characteristic antigenic distances for cross-protection and for the creation of new immune memory. This bound implies a "speed limit" on the evolution of new strains and a minimum variance of the distribution of infecting strains in antigenic space at any time. To carry out this analysis, we develop a theoretical model of pathogen evolution in antigenic space that implements OAS by decoupling the antigenic distances required for protection from infection and strain-specific memory creation. Our results demonstrate that OAS can play an integral role in the emergence of strain structure from host immune dynamics, preventing highly transmissible pathogens from maintaining serial strain replacement without diversification.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Functional Protein Dynamics in a Crystal

Proteins are molecular machines and to understand how they work, we need to understand how they move. New pump-probe time-resolved X-ray diffraction methods open up ways to initiate and observe protein motions with atomistic detail in crystals on biologically relevant timescales. However, practical limitations of these experiments demands parallel development of effective molecular dynamics approaches to accelerate progress and extract meaning. Here, we establish robust and accurate methods for simulating dynamics in protein crystals, a nontrivial process requiring careful attention to equilibration, environmental composition, and choice of force fields. With more than seven milliseconds of sampling of a single chain, we identify critical factors controlling agreement between simulation and experiments and show that simulated motions recapitulate ligand-induced conformational changes. This work enables a virtuous cycle between simulation and experiments for visualizing and understanding the basic functional motions of proteins.

biophysics↗