Biology subjects

McClure, C. J.

Publications and source records attributed to McClure, C. J..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Updated range metrics and a global population estimate for the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle using a spatial ensemble habitat model

Many range-restricted taxa are currently experiencing population declines yet lack fundamental information regarding distribution and population size. Establishing baseline estimates for both these key biological parameters is however critical for directing conservation planning for at-risk range-restricted species. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List uses three range metrics that define species distributions and inform extinction risk assessments: extent of occurrence (EOO), area of occupancy (AOO) and area of habitat (AOH). However, calculating all three metrics using standard IUCN approaches relies on a geographically representative sample of locations, which for rare species is often spatially biased. Here, we apply model-based interpolation using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), correlating occurrences with remote-sensing covariates, to calculate IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage and a global population estimate for the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle (Pithecophaga jefferyi). Our final range wide continuous SDM had high predictive accuracy (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.927) and when converted to a binary model estimated an AOH = 23,185 km2, a maximum EOO = 605,759 km2, a minimum EOO = 272,272 km2, with an AOO = 53,867 km2. Based on inferred habitat from the AOH metric, we estimate a global population of 318 breeding pairs (range: 258-362 pairs), or 636 mature individuals, across the Philippine Eagle global range. Protected areas covered 34 % of AOH, 15 % less than the target representation, with the continuous model identifying key habitat as priority conservation areas. We demonstrate that even when occurrences are geographically biased, robust habitat models can be built that enable quantification of baseline IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage, and a population size estimate. In the absence of adequate location data for many rare and threatened taxa, our method is a promising spatial modelling tool with widespread applications, in particular for island endemics facing high extinction risk.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Distribution and habitat use of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon: first estimates for area of habitat and population size

Accurately demarcating species distributions has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors limiting species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus radama) is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. Currently, there are significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences and population size. Here, we use point process regression models and ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon environmental range limits and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From our models, the core range of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central upland plateau of Madagascar with a patchier range across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use indicated that the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon prefers areas of high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and > 95 % herbaceous landcover, but generally avoids areas of > 30 % cultivated land and > 10 % mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150-300 pairs. Following International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List guidelines, we recommend this sub-species be classed as Vulnerable, due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine has specialized habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models in order to maintain viable populations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Range-wide habitat use and Key Biodiversity Area coverage for a lowland tropical forest raptor across an increasingly deforested landscape

Quantifying habitat use is important for understanding how animals meet their requirements for survival and provides useful information for conservation planning. Currently, assessments of range-wide habitat use that delimit species distributions are incomplete for many taxa. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a raptor of conservation concern, widely distributed across Neotropical lowland forests, that currently faces threats from increasing habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a logistic regression modelling framework to identify habitat resource selection and predict habitat suitability based on a new method developed from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Area of Habitat range metric. From the habitat use model, we performed a gap analysis to identify areas of high habitat suitability in regions with limited coverage in the Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) network. Range-wide habitat use indicated that harpy eagles prefer areas of 70-75 % evergreen forest cover, low elevation, and high vegetation heterogeneity. Conversely, harpy eagles avoid areas of >10 % cultivated landcover and mosaic forest, and topographically complex areas. Our habitat use model identified a large continuous area across the pan-Amazonia region, and a habitat corridor from the Choco-Darien ecoregion of Colombia running north along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Little habitat was predicted across the Atlantic Forest biome, which is now severely degraded. The current KBA network covered [~]18 % of medium to high suitability harpy eagle habitat exceeding the target representation (10 %). Four major areas of high suitability habitat lacking coverage in the KBA network were identified in the Choco-Darien ecoregion of Colombia, western Guyana, and north-west Brazil. We recommend these multiple gaps of habitat as new KBAs for strengthening the current KBA network. Modelled area of habitat estimates as described here are a useful tool for large-scale conservation planning and can be readily applied to many taxa.

ecology↗