Biology subjects

Matthews, S. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Matthews, S. A..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Importance of depth refugia for reef resilience and intervention on the Great Barrier Reef under future climate change

Coral reefs globally face unprecedented threats from climate change, with the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) experiencing cumulative stressors and increasingly severe declines in coral cover from thermal stress events. Understanding drivers behind reef resilience to climate impacts is critical for conservation planning and intervention strategies. A scenario-based population modelling approach was adopted with larval connectivity dynamics and environmental factors to assess coral reef resilience across the GBR using projected conditions under five Global Climate Models (GCMs). Projected coral cover was analysed for each reefs ability to maintain positive carbonate production budgets under future conditions, using coral cover as a proxy. Larval connectivity patterns did not correlate with increases in maintenance of positive carbonate budgets. Instead, reef depth emerged as the primary predictor, with deeper reefs (>10m) benefitting from reduced thermal exposure. These findings suggest that depth is a tangible and pragmatic reef characteristic to consider in future intervention practices for coral reef restoration. These results have important implications for reef management, indicating that depth should be considered as a key variable in conservation planning to maximize coral survival under continuing climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Summary paragraphCoral reefs around the world are threatened by recurrent marine heatwaves causing mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Mitigating future warming impacts requires strategic management2 that adopts a long-term lens. Global analyses of projected heatwaves3,4 are critical for decision-making but how disturbance refugia, coral life-histories and adaptation interact with warming is unknown. Here, we simulate coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across >3,800 individual reefs of Australias iconic Great Barrier Reef under the current suite of climate projections5. We forecast a rapid coral decline before mid-century regardless of emissions scenario. Under the most likely warming6, corals may continue to decline throughout the century. However, corals may recover after mid-century provided that warming is sufficiently slow, allowing thermal adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes - as projected if warming does not exceed 2{degrees}C. Higher emission scenarios would drive most reefs to a near collapse. Future resilient reefs were mostly found in bleaching refugia, which also possessed a greater diversity of thermal phenotypes. Although cool-adapted corals disperse to thermal hotspots, there was no evidence of gene swamping undermining thermal adaptation. While opportunities exist to build management strategies that promote adaptation in thermal refugia and warm spots, curbing the rate of warming by 2050 is crucial for coral persistence.

ecology↗