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Martins, M. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Martins, M. P..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Integrating dedicated and opportunistic surveys to estimate seasonal common dolphin density off mainland Portugal

1. Common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are the most abundant cetaceans off mainland Portugal and a species of conservation and bycatch concern, so reliable abundance estimates are a management priority. Yet no single survey provides adequate spatiotemporal coverage: dedicated programmes offer sparse snapshots, while opportunistic programmes are spatially constrained by their routes. Integrating them is methodologically demanding, and the existing methods that do so in a single model estimate the density of animal groups, not of the individual animals that management often requires. 2. We develop a spatiotemporal marked log-Gaussian Cox process that integrates four structurally distinct surveys through a shared intensity surface, comprising environmental covariates, a latent spatial field, and survey-specific detection functions. Group size enters as a zero-truncated negative binomial mark with its own spatiotemporal field. We apply it to a dedicated aerial survey and three opportunistic ship-based programmes off mainland Portugal, comprising 162,514 km of on-effort transects and 1,756 sightings of 17,000 animals. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework with integrated nested Laplace approximations, yielding seasonally resolved group and animal density surfaces across the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone, and abundance estimates with fully propagated uncertainty. 3. Predicted animal density concentrated over the shelf and upper slope in every season, peaking northwest, and increased in shallower, cooler, more productive waters and over steeper seabed. Abundance nearly doubled from summer (77,000 [95% credible interval: 60,000, 98,000]) to winter (146,000 [99,000, 208,000]). Seasons shared 56% of the spatial field's variance, so effort from any programme in any season informed all others, and the seasonal contrast remained estimable despite uneven coverage. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our framework allows managers to combine dedicated surveys with existing platforms of opportunity to estimate animal density by season. Because group size is modelled explicitly, densities are estimated in animals rather than groups, as required for bycatch risk assessment and marine spatial planning. Because each survey enters through its own observation model, the approach accommodates programmes that differ in platform and protocol and transfers to any species or region where several surveys each cover part of a population.

ecology↗

The Maximum Entropy Formalism of statistical mechanics in a biological application: a quantitative analysis of tropical forest ecology

In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics.

ecology↗