Biology subjects

Martin, N. W.

Publications and source records attributed to Martin, N. W..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Parameter non-identifiability limits ecological inference from historical plague mortality records

Historical plague mortality records provide unusually detailed temporal records of epidemic dynamics. However, the ecological processes underlying those dynamics are rarely observed. This creates a fundamental challenge for inference into ecological mechanisms, as multiple combinations of unobserved ecological parameters and initial conditions may produce similar mortality trajectories. We investigated this problem by examining the geometry of parameter compensation for models of the Barcelona plague outbreak of 1490. We fit a mechanistic rat-flea-human transmission model to daily human mortality data under three values of flea search efficiency, then characterized the resulting joint posterior distributions. We then used a phenomenological model in which human infection was driven by a time-varying external force of infection, allowing us to separate parameter dependencies arising from deterministic structure. The mechanistic model reproduced the broad temporal structure of the observed epidemic, but exhibited strong linear and nonlinear dependencies among transmission parameters and initial rat and flea conditions. Similar dependencies persisted in the phenomenological model, despite its substantially reduced complexity. However, fixing the timing of the external hazard substantially reduced these dependencies. These results demonstrate that detailed mortality records can constrain the temporal pattern of an epidemic without uniquely identifying the mechanisms that generated it. Rather than simply adding additional mortality records, improving mechanistic inference from historical epidemics may require recovering independent observations of upstream ecological processes, such as timing of rodent or flea dynamics as well as environmental drivers. Mechanistic models can therefore serve not only to reconstruct historical epidemics but also to identify which missing observations would most improve inference.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Green Leaves, Red Flags: Host Plant Associations as Indicators of Prey Defense for an Avian Predator

Defended prey are often thought to rely on conspicuous warning signals to distinguish themselves from undefended prey, facilitating predator learning and avoidance. Yet many chemically defended organisms are inconspicuous and difficult to distinguish from palatable prey, raising a fundamental question: how do predators avoid defended prey when prey themselves provide little or no reliable signals of defense? We tested whether host plants can function as indirect indicators of prey defense using Carolina wrens (Thryothorus ludovicianus), chemically defended Eumaeus atala larvae, undefended Galleria mellonella larvae, and two distinct plant species. Defended and undefended prey were experimentally made to appear visually identical, forcing predators to rely on host-plant associations as the only available source of information. Wrens rapidly altered both search behavior and attack decisions according to plant identity. Mechanistic attack models incorporating predator discrimination between defended and undefended prey were strongly favored when plants were present, with defended prey experiencing substantially lower attack risk than undefended prey. When plants were removed, support for discrimination weakened and attacks on both prey types increased. Spatial autocorrelation of host plants further shaped predator behavior, with strongly clustered plants hosting defended prey receiving disproportionately fewer visits. Together, these results suggest host plants can function as ecologically meaningful cues of prey defense, influencing both predator search patterns and attack decisions. More broadly, our findings suggest warning systems may extend beyond prey phenotype alone, and that ecological context (including host-plant identity and spatial structure) may contribute to the evolution and maintenance of aposematism.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Endangered Species Act listing is linked with greater research effort for U.S. butterflies

Conservation strategies for at-risk species can be aided significantly by research on topics such as ecology, life history, and threats, yet research effort is lacking for many species facing elevated extinction risk. Here we investigated whether listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) was associated with research effort for U.S. butterflies, and whether that effort was higher before or after ESA listing. We found that ESA-listed species had significantly more peer-reviewed publications than non-listed species after accounting for species range and taxonomic family. Further, we showed that more papers were published per year after ESA listing than before. These findings confirm that ESA-listed species benefit from greater research attention that can support data-informed conservation efforts. However, the relative scarcity of studies prior to ESA listing, as well as the lack of research for many unlisted, at-risk taxa, underscores the need for proactive, strategic research effort to inform conservation action.

zoology↗