Biology subjects

Mann, R. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Mann, R. P..

15 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Modelling a rapid radiation of crown-group placentals

The timing of the origins of the crown-group placental mammals has provided one of the classic battlefields in the long-running debate over when clades arise. Undoubted fossil crown-group placentals appear only in the Paleogene, but even so most molecular analyses, and many palaeontologists, have suggested their true origin is somewhere between 70-100 Ma. However, apart from the fact of the fossil record itself, there are several reasons to believe that the true origin is indeed post-Cretaceous, including consideration of the dynamics of stem and crown groups, which strongly favour crown-group origins to lie just after, and not just before, mass extinctions. Here we consider this "hard explosive" model in the light of the newly-developed "Covariant Evolutionary Tempo (CET)" model which allows diversification and molecular evolution rates to covary. It predicts "early bursts" in both lineage creation and molecular evolution at the base of major radiations which lead to highly unequally-sized clades; and an inheritance of rapid rates from this initial event by extant rapidly-evolving clades. We show that when the placentals are constrained to emerge after the K-Pg boundary, they indeed show elevated rates of both diversification and molecular evolution, which rapidly decline. Nevertheless, although elevated, these rates are comparable to the fastest rates seen in extant clades such as the rodents. In addition, the contiguous lineages leading from the origin to the rodents and other fast evolving clades also show elevated rates. These patterns suggest that not only is a Paleogene origin for the placental crown-group plausible, as fossil evidence suggests, but they also provide support for the CET model, which should be considered in other cases of pronounced fossil record/molecular clock mismatch.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Rapid coordination of followership and leadership roles in homing pigeons navigating with unfamiliar partners

Collective movement requires coordination between individuals, yet how this emerges during early interactions remains poorly understood. We investigated how partner familiarity influences coordination, leader-follower dynamics, and learning in homing pigeon pairs navigating from novel sites. Birds were released repeatedly with either familiar or unfamiliar partners, followed by solo releases to assess learning. By quantifying bidirectional information flow, we found familiarity influenced information-transfer dynamics during the first release: familiar pairs exhibited more asymmetric information transfer, likely reflecting established leader-follower relationships, whereas unfamiliar pairs showed more symmetric exchange. These differences disappeared after one release. Conversely, familiarity had little effect on cohesion or navigational performance. There was some evidence for an influence on learning: birds from familiar pairings had higher homing efficiency on a subsequent solo release. Finally, across partnerships, followership was more predictable than leadership with respect to individual identity and flight speed, indicating stable variation in individuals tendency to follow rather than lead. This suggests that a shift in emphasis from leadership to followership might enhance our understanding of collective decision-making dynamics. Our results demonstrate how flight partners rapidly coordinate, producing limited downstream effects on navigation and learning, with implications for many animals that travel in fission-fusion transitory collectives.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2024

Random walks with spatial and temporal resets may underlie searching movements in ants

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWMany ant species are central place foragers, living in a nest and exploiting the surrounding environment. It is however unclear how their exploration behaviour relates to the emerging exploited area. Ants provide a great opportunity to study the emergence of foraging range from individual movements, given the potentially large number of scouting workers involved. Here, we introduce a random walk model with stochastic resetting to depict the movements of searching ants. Stochastic resetting refers to spatially reset at random times the position of agents to a given location, here the nest of searching ants. We investigate the effect of a range of resetting mechanisms by changing how the probability of returning to the nest depends on the duration of unsuccessful foraging trips. We compare the macroscopic predictions of our model to laboratory and field data. We find that the probability for searching ants to return to their nest decreases as the number of foraging trips increases, resulting in scouts going further away from the nest as the number of foraging trips increases. Our findings highlight the importance of resetting random walk models to depict the movements of central place foragers and nurtures novel questions regarding the searching behaviour of ants.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2024

A covariant model of molecular and diversification patterns through time and the history of large clades

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWRate shifts in speciation and extinction have been recognised as important contributors to the creation of evolutionary patterns. In particular, the distribution of modern clade sizes is difficult to reconcile with models that do not include them. Although recent advances have allowed rate shifts to be integrated into evolutionary models, these have largely been for the purpose of inferring historical rate shifts across phylogenetic trees. In addition, these models have typically assumed an independence between patterns of diversification and rates of molecular and morphological evolution, despite there being mounting evidence of a connection between them. Here, we develop a new model with two principal goals: first, to explore the general patterns of diversification implied by constantly changing rates, and secondly to integrate diversification, molecular and morphological evolution into a single coherent framework. We thus develop and analyse a covariant birth-death process in which rates of all evolutionary processes (i.e. speciation, extinction and molecular and morphological change) covary continuously, both for each species and through time. We use this model to show that modern diversity is likely to be dominated by a small number of extremely large clades at any historical epoch; that these large clades are expected to be characterised by explosive early radiations accompanied by elevated rates of molecular evolution; and that extant organisms are likely to have evolved from species with unusually fast evolutionary rates. In addition, we show that under such a model, the amount of molecular change along a particular lineage is essentially independent of its height, which further weakens the molecular clock hypothesis. Finally, our model predicts the existence of "living fossil" sister groups to large clades that are both species poor and have exhibited slow rates of morphological and molecular change. Although our model is highly stochastic, it includes no special evolutionary moments or epochs. Our results thus demonstrate that the observed historical patterns of evolution can be modelled without invoking special evolutionary mechanisms or innovations that are unique to specific times or taxa, even when they are highly non-uniform: instead they could emerge from a process that is fundamentally homogeneous throughout time.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Playing the long game: rational agents sacrifice immediate rewards to retain access to collective wisdom

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWLiving in groups offers social animals the significant advantage of accessing collective wisdom and enhanced information processing, enabling more accurate decisions related to foraging, navigation, and habitat selection. Preserving group membership is crucial for sustaining access to collective wisdom, incentivising animals to prioritise group cohesion. However, when individuals encounter divergent information about the quality of various options this can create a conflict between pursuing immediate rewards and the maintenance of group membership to improve access to future payoffs. In this study I show that rational agents who seek to maximise long-term rewards will be more inclined to follow the decisions of their peers than those with short-term horizons. In doing so, they necessarily make less-rewarding decisions in the short-term, which manifests in a lower individual accuracy when choosing the better of two options. Further, I demonstrate that intuitions about collective wisdom can be misleading in groups of agents who prioritise long-term rewards, with disagreement being a better signal for the accuracy of collective choices than consensus. These results demonstrate that observed patterns of sociality should be interpreted in the context of the life history of an individual and its peers, rather than through the lens of an isolated decision.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2023

Smart self-propelled particles: a framework to investigate the cognitive bases of movement

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWDecision-making and movement of single animals or group of animals are often treated and investigated as separate processes. However, many decisions are taken while moving in a given space. In other words, both processes are optimised at the same time and optimal decision-making processes are only understood in the light of movement constraints. To fully understand the rational of decisions embedded in an environment (and therefore the underlying evolutionary processes), it is instrumental to develop theories of spatial decision-making. Here, we present a framework specifically developed to address this issue by the means of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. Specifically, we investigate a simple task in which single agents need to learn to explore their square arena without leaving its boundaries. We show that agents evolve by developing increasingly optimal strategies to solve a spatially-embedded learning task while not having an initial arbitrary model of movements. The process allows the agents to learn how to move (i.e. by avoiding the arena walls) in order to make increasingly optimal decisions (improving their exploration of the arena). Ultimately, this framework makes predictions of possibly optimal behavioural strategies for tasks combining learning and movement.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2022

Evolutionary stability of social interaction rules in collective decision-making

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWSocial animals can use the choices made by other members of their groups as cues in decision making. Individuals must balance the private information they receive from their own sensory cues with the social information provided by observing what others have chosen. These two cues can be integrated using decision making rules, which specify the probability to select one or other options based on the quality and quantity of social and non-social information. Previous empirical work has investigated which decision making rules can replicate the observable features of collective decision making, while other theoretical research has derived forms for decision making rules based on normative assumptions about how rational agents should respond to the available information. Here we explore the performance of one commonly used decision making rule in terms of the expected decision accuracy of individuals employing it. We show that parameters of this model which have typically been treated as independent variables in empirical model-fitting studies obey necessary relationships under the assumption that animals are evolutionarily optimised to their environment. We further investigate whether this decision making model is appropriate to all animal groups by testing its evolutionary stability to invasion by alternative strategies that use social information differently, and show that the likely evolutionary equilibrium of these strategies depends sensitively on the precise nature of group identity among the wider population of animals it is embedded within.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2022

Two notorious nodes: a critical examination of MCMCTree relaxed molecular clock estimates of the bilaterian animals and placental mammals

The popularity of MCMCTree for Bayesian inference of clade origin timings has generated several recent publications with focal results considerably older than the fossils of the clades in question. Here we critically examine two such clades; the animals (with focus on the bilaterians) and the mammals (with focus on the placentals). Each example displays a set of characteristic pathologies which, although much commented on, are rarely corrected for. We conclude that in neither case does the molecular clock analysis provide any evidence for an origin of the clade deeper than what the fossil record might suggest. In addition, both these clades have other features (including, in the case of the placental mammals, proximity to a large mass extinction) that allow us to generate precise expectations of the timings of their origins. Thus, in these instances the fossil record can provide a powerful test of molecular clock methodology, and why it goes astray.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2021

Fossil data do not support a long Pre-Cretaceous history of flowering plants

The origin of angiosperms is a classic macroevolutionary problem, because of their rapid rise in the Early Cretaceous fossil record, beginning about 139 Ma ago, and the conflict this creates with older crown-group ages based on molecular clock dating1. Silvestro et al.2 use a novel methodology to model past angiosperm diversity based on a Bayesian Brownian Bridge model of fossil finds assigned to extant families, concluding that a Cretaceous origin is vanishingly unlikely. However, their results strongly conflict with the known temporal distribution of angiosperm fossils, and, while we agree that statistical analysis aids interpretation of the fossil record, here we show the conclusions of Silvestro et al.2 are unsound.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2021

Optimal use of simplified social information in sequential decision-making

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWSocial animals can improve their decisions by attending to the choices made by others. The rewards gained by attending to this social information must be balanced against the costs of obtaining and processing it. Previous work has investigated the behaviour of rational agents that respond optimally to a full sequence of prior decisions. However, such full sequences are potentially difficult to perceive and costly to process. As such, real animals are likely to rely on simpler forms of information when making decisions, which in turn will affect the social behaviour they exhibit. In this paper I derive the optimal policy for rational agents responding to specific simplified forms of social information. I show how the behaviour of agents attending to the total aggregate number of previous choices differs from those attending to more dynamic information provided by the most recent prior decision, and I propose a hybrid strategy that incorporates both information sources to give a highly accurate approximation to the optimal policy with the full sequence. Finally I analyse the evolutionary stability of each strategy depending on the cost of cognition and perception, showing that a hybrid strategy dominates when this cost is low but non-zero, while attending to the most recent decision is dominant when costs are high. These results show that agents can employ highly effective social decision-making rules without requiring unrealistic cognitive capacities, and point to likely ecological variation in the social information different animals attend to.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2020

Collective decision making by rational agents with differing preferences

Collective decisions can emerge from individual-level interactions between members of a group. These interactions are often seen as social feedback rules, whereby individuals copy the decisions they observe others making, creating a coherent group decision. The benefit of these behavioural rules to the individual agent can be understood as a transfer of information, whereby a focal individual learns about the world by gaining access to the information possessed by others. Previous studies have analysed this exchange of information by assuming that all agents share common goals. While differences in information and differences in preferences have often been conflated, little is known about how differences between agents underlying preferences affects the use and efficacy of social information. In this paper I develop a model of social information use by rational agents with differing preferences, and demonstrate that the resulting collective behaviour is strongly dependent on the structure of preference sharing within the group, as well as the quality of information in the environment. In particular, I show that strong social responses are expected by individuals that are habituated to noisy, uncertain environments where private information about the world is relatively weak. Furthermore, by investigating heterogeneous group structures I demonstrate a potential influence of cryptic minority subgroups that may illuminate the empirical link between personality and leadership.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2019

The dynamics of stem and crown groups

ABSTRACTThe fossil record of the origins of major groups is of great interests to many biologists, especially when the fossil record apparently conflicts with timings based on molecular clock estimates. Here we model the diversity of “stem” (basal) and “crown” (modern) members of groups as seen in the fossil record, using a “birth-death model”. Under background conditions, the stem group members must diversify rapidly until the modern crown group emerges, at which point their diversity rapidly collapses, followed shortly by their extinction. Mass extinctions can disturb this pattern to create very diverse stem groups such as the dinosaurs and trilobites. Understanding these null-hypothesis patterns is essential for framing ecological and evolutionary explanations for how major groups originate and subsequently evolve.View Full Text

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2018

Modelling predation and mortality rates from the fossil record of gastropods

Gastropods often show signs of unsuccessful attacks by predators in the form of healed scars in their shells. As such, fossil gastropods can be taken as providing a record of predation through ge-ological time. However, interpreting the number of such scars has proved to be problematic - would a low number of scars mean a low rate of attack, or a high rate of success, for example? Here we develop a model of scar formation, and formally show that in general these two variables cannot be disambiguated without further information about population structure. Nevertheless, by making the probably reasonable assumptions that the non-predatory death rate is both constant and low, we show that it is possible to use relatively small assemblages of gastropods to produce accurate estimates of both attack and success rates, if the overall death rate can be estimated. We show in addition what sort of information would be required to solve this problem in more general cases. However, it is unlikely that it will be possible to extract the relevant information easily from the fossil record: a variety of important collection and taphonomic biases are likely to intervene to obscure the data that gastropod assemblages may yield.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2018

Collective decision-making by rational individuals

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules, and the extent to which these behavioural rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behaviour. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals, and between the decision-makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behaviour, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups, and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behaviour.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2017

History is written by the victors: the effect of the push of the past on the fossil record

Phylogenies may be modelled using \"birth-death\" models for speciation and extinction, but even when a homogeneous rate of diversification is used, survivorship biases can generate remarkable rate heterogeneities through time. One such bias has been termed the \"push of the past\", by which the length of time a clade has survived is conditioned on the rate of diversification that happened to pertain at its origin. This creates the illusion of a secular rate slow-down through time that is, rather, a reversion to the mean. Here we model the controls on the push of the past, and the effect it has on clade origination times, and show that it largely depends on underlying extinction rates. An extra effect increasing early rates of lineage generation is also seen in large clades. These biases are important but relatively neglected influences on many aspects of diversification patterns, such as diversification spikes after mass extinctions and at the origins of clades; they also influence rates of fossilisation, changes in rates of phenotypic evolution and even molecular clocks. These inevitable features of surviving and/or large clades should thus not be generalised to the diversification process as a whole without additional study of small and extinct clades.

paleontology↗