Magdon, P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Accounting for spatial interactions in the upscaling of ecosystem services

O_LIMaps of ecosystem service (ES) supply are frequently used to guide spatial planning, policy making, and ecosystem management. However, these are typically based upon coarse land-cover proxies. This approach lacks a strong mechanistic basis, and neglects spatial biodiversity dynamics and interactions among landscape properties that can modify ES provision. C_LIO_LIWe present an analytical framework for ES upscaling that incorporates spatial interactions between landscape properties to determine ES supply. The resulting models can be viewed as a spatially informed ES production function. The approach comprises seven steps that include several elements absent from most existing approaches, notably a procedure for identifying geodata variables that represent the true mechanistic drivers, the inclusion of spatial interactions in the upscaling model, and modification following expert feedback on the selected model. C_LIO_LIWe demonstrate the approach using two example ES from German grasslands: biodiversity conservation and water supply. We show that the inclusion of spatial interactions in the upscaling model improved model predictions from 15% to 33% depending on the ES evaluated. In addition, inclusion of spatial interactions led to reduced error associated with the upscaled estimates. C_LIO_LIBy overcoming several shortcomings of existing, upscaling approaches we generate resulting maps of ES supply that can more reliably inform spatial planning Further, the underlying models allow for simulation of changes in the drivers of ES supply and estimation of respective outcomes. These advantages have the potential to better link detailed local-scale ecological understanding and land management with large-scale ES supply mapping, and thus better inform decision making and spatial planning. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Mobile species' responses to surrounding land use generate trade-offs among nature's contributions to people

Agricultural landscapes provide material, non-material and regulating contributions that affect human wellbeing. The responses of these natures contributions to people (NCP) to land-use patterns depend on supporting biota with different habitat requirements, generating trade-offs and synergies. Predictions of NCP trade-offs could inform land-use decisions, but these do not typically account for the effects of land-use patterns on the movement of NCP-providing species, nor for interactions among NCP providers. To explore spatial trade-offs and synergies in eight indicators of NCP, we used Bayesian models that allow for interactions among land uses and among NCP using data from 150 grassland sites across rural Germany. We found that spatial arrangements of forest and open habitat influenced many NCP: acoustic diversity, birdwatching potential, natural enemy abundance and pollination. In particular, the amount and proximity of land uses in the surrounding landscape, especially forest and open habitat, drove the supply of most NCP. However, NCP provided by smaller-bodied taxa (herbivory and pathogen infection) responded weakly to landscape factors. Multiple NCP provided by a given taxon responded differently to their surrounding landscape (e.g. bird-provided caterpillar predation and seed predation), leading to trade-offs among NCP over short distances ([≤]60 m). These were caused by different rates and directions of response to amount and location of land uses. Resulting spatial predictions revealed that grassland-dominated or mixed forest-grassland areas better maximize beneficial NCP and minimize detrimental NCP across landscapes than purely forest-dominated areas. This suggests promoting semi-natural vegetation in agricultural landscapes to provide greater-than-additive benefits to net NCP supply. Significance StatementLand use affects natures contributions to people (NCP), including those provided by mobile species, in complex ways. Variation in the responses of species to the amount and location of land uses results in NCP trade-offs across landscapes, but decision-makers lack the capacity to spatially predict these trade-offs. We predict how the supply of both beneficial and detrimental NCP and associated trade-offs vary across diverse rural landscapes and find that grassland-dominated or mixed forest-grassland areas deliver higher net NCP supply than forest-dominated areas in our study system. Our findings support policies for promoting semi-natural vegetation cover in agricultural landscapes, as these may provide non-additive benefits for NCP.

ecology↗