Biology subjects

Mackinson, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Mackinson, S..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

A baseline for the genetic stock identification of Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, in ICES Divisions 6.a, 7.b-c

Atlantic herring in ICES Divisions 6.a, 7.b-c comprises at least three populations, distinguished by temporal and spatial differences in spawning, which have until recently been managed as two stocks defined by geographic delineators. Outside of spawning the populations form mixed aggregations, which are the subject of acoustic surveys. The inability to distinguish the populations has prevented the development of separate survey indices and separate stock assessments. A panel of 45 SNPs, derived from whole genome sequencing, were used to genotype 3,480 baseline spawning samples (2014-2021). A temporally stable baseline comprising 2,316 herring from populations known to inhabit Division 6.a was used to develop a genetic assignment method, with a self-assignment accuracy >90%. The long-term temporal stability of the assignment model was validated by assigning archive (2003-2004) baseline samples (270 individuals) with a high level of accuracy. Assignment of non-baseline samples (1,514 individuals) from Division 6.a, 7.b-c indicated previously unrecognised levels of mixing of populations outside of the spawning season. The genetic markers and assignment models presented constitute a toolbox that can be used for the assignment of herring caught in mixed survey and commercial catches in Division 6.a into their population of origin with a high level of accuracy.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2018

Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change

Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% ({+/-}4%) under low and 17% ({+/-}11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.

ecology↗