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Lyberger, K. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Lyberger, K. P..

3 recordsLinked to original sources
bioRxiv2025

Climate warming and urbanization may expand dengue transmission risk in California

BackgroundWhile primarily a disease of tropical and subtropical regions, dengue outbreaks are increasing in non-endemic regions due to environmental change and increasing travel and trade. For these non-endemic regions, estimating the risk of dengue is challenging as transmission is driven by both local environmental conditions and the introduction of viremic travelers. In this study, we aimed to estimate current and future dengue risk in California, USA--a region that has recently experienced its first cases of locally-acquired dengue. MethodsWe modeled dengue risk as the product of three key components needed for local transmission--vector presence, temperature-suitability for pathogen transmission, and viral introductions via travel-associated cases--estimated using vector and case surveillance, sociodemographic, and environmental data. We estimated risk for locations and months where local transmission was reported in 2023-2024 to define a threshold level of risk. We then projected monthly, census tract-level risk under both current conditions and future scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion. FindingsApproximately 18.2 million (95% CI: 17.9-18.3) California residents--primarily in the Central Valley and the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas--currently live in areas where peak monthly dengue risk exceeds levels estimated during observed local transmission. Under moderate scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion, an additional 4.1 million (95% CI: 3.7-4.6) California residents may be at risk by mid-century, with the largest increase in risk estimated for September and for the Sacramento Valley and coastal southern California regions. Outside the summer months and beyond the Central Valley and southern California, current and future risk remains low due to one or more major bottlenecks to transmission. InterpretationOur study identifies the specific regions and months conducive to dengue transmission in the non-endemic setting of California. At present, this covers a substantial portion of the state and is projected to expand under on-going climate warming and urbanization. Our results underscore the need for sustained vector control, and timely detection and management of travel-associated cases. Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSDengue is considered endemic in over 125 countries and rapidly expanding its range, aided by climate warming, urbanization, and global travel and trade. Estimating transmission risk in newly emerging regions is critical for public health preparedness and depends on both local environmental conditions and the introduction of viremic travelers. We searched PubMed from database inception to May 8, 2025, for articles published in English using search terms "dengue", "model", "non-endemic", and their common textual variants. We identified 75 relevant studies modeling dengue transmission risk in non-endemic settings. However, nearly all were focused on one or two major determinants of transmission (eg, climate, vector population dynamics, or case importations) and/or did not include future projections. We found no studies that developed and validated a model of dengue transmission risk in non-endemic settings that incorporated vector, pathogen, and human suitability factors, and applied this model to project future risk. Added value of this studyThis study provides a novel approach to model dengue transmission risk in emerging regions that integrates the major factors driving transmission--vector presence, temperature suitability, and travel-associated cases. We apply this model to California--an emerging center of transmission risk in the continental USA--to identify the times and regions where risk exceeds levels observed during recent local transmission. We found that approximately 18.2 million California residents may be at risk based on this threshold, with an additional 4.1 million potentially at risk by mid-century under a moderate scenario of warming and urban expansion. Implications of all the available evidenceOur study identifies the hotspots of dengue transmission risk at a fine spatial and temporal resolution (census tract, month) in a highly populous and globally-connected region of emerging dengue risk. These risk estimates, and the regionally-specific bottlenecks to transmission that we identify can inform targeted disease surveillance and prevention strategies. Further, our findings have implications for other emerging regions including the southern USA and southern Europe, suggesting that the risk of local dengue transmission may increase under ongoing climate warming, urbanization, and global travel.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2025

Nonlinear effects of temperature on mosquito parasite infection across a large geographic climate gradient

Temperature drives ectothermic host - parasite interactions, making them particularly sensitive to climatic variation and change. To isolate the role of temperature, lab-based studies are increasingly used to assess and forecast disease risk under current and future climate conditions. However, in the field, the effects of temperature on parasitism may be mediated by other sources of variation, including local adaptation of hosts and parasites to one another and to the environment. To address the key knowledge gaps of how temperature influences host - parasite interactions and whether thermal responses measured in controlled experiments capture infection across temperature gradients in nature, we paired an extensive field survey of parasitism--by the ciliate Lambornella clarki on its tree hole mosquito host, Aedes sierrensis--with laboratory experiments describing parasitism thermal performance curves (TPCs) for six host populations from varying climates. We also investigated the mechanisms underlying the thermal biology of the host - parasite interaction by separately measuring TPCs for infection, host immunity, and parasite growth rates. Along the west coast of North America, across an 1100 km climate gradient spanning 12{degrees}C mean rainy season temperature variation, we found that parasitism peaked at intermediately cold temperatures of 9.2 - 10{degrees}C, and was consistent both between field seasons and with the lab experiment results. In the laboratory experiments, infection thermal responses were consistently nonlinear and peaked at 8.4 - 10{degrees}C, showing no evidence of host intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity to parasitism. Importantly, parasitism peaked at temperatures below the thermal optimum for free-living L. clarki due to the balance of temperature effects on parasite growth and reproduction against the strength of the host melanization immune response. The results suggest that nonlinear responses to temperature drive parasitism in nature, and that simple lab and field studies can accurately capture the thermal biology of multilayered host - parasite interactions.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Evidence of thermal adaptation in a widely distributed mosquito species

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found remarkably limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations, with the upper thermal limits of fitness varying by <1{degrees}C across the species range. For one life history trait--pupal development rate--we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found environmental temperatures already regularly exceed our highest estimated upper thermal limits throughout most of the species range, suggesting limited potential for mosquito thermal tolerance to evolve on pace with warming. Strategies for avoiding high temperatures such as diapause, phenological shifts, and behavioral thermoregulation are likely important for mosquito persistence.

ecology↗