Biology subjects

Longini, I. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Longini, I. M..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Genomic epidemiology supports multiple introductions and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Colombia

BackgroundColombia was the second most affected country during the American Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, with over 109,000 reported cases. Despite the scale of the outbreak, limited genomic sequence data were available from Colombia. We sought to sequence additional samples and use genomic epidemiology to describe ZIKV dynamics in Colombia.\n\nMethodsWe sequenced ZIKV genomes directly from clinical diagnostic specimens and infected Aedes ae-gypti samples selected to cover the temporal and geographic breadth of the Colombian outbreak. We performed phylogeographic analysis of these genomes, along with other publicly-available ZIKV genomes from the Americas, to estimate the frequency and timing of ZIKV introductions to Colombia.\n\nResultsWe attempted PCR amplification on 184 samples; 19 samples amplified sufficiently to perform sequencing. Of these, 8 samples yielded sequences with at least 50% coverage. Our phylogeo-graphic reconstruction indicates two separate introductions of ZIKV to Colombia, one of which was previously unrecognized. We find that ZIKV was first introduced to Colombia in February 2015 (95%CI: Jan 2015 - Apr 2015), corresponding to 5 to 8 months of cryptic ZIKV transmission prior to confirmation in September 2015. Despite the presence of multiple introductions, we find that the majority of Colombian ZIKV diversity descends from a single introduction. We find evidence for movement of ZIKV from Colombia into bordering countries, including Peru, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela.\n\nConclusionsSimilarly to genomic epidemiologic studies of ZIKV dynamics in other countries, we find that ZIKV circulated cryptically in Colombia. This more accurate dating of when ZIKV was circulating refines our definition of the population at risk. Additionally, our finding that the majority of ZIKV transmission within Colombia was attributable to transmission between individuals, rather than repeated travel-related importations, indicates that improved detection and control might have succeeded in limiting the scale of the outbreak within Colombia.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Designing a Study of Correlates of Risk for Ebola Vaccination

The rVSV Ebola vaccine was shown to be very efficacious in a novel ring vaccination trial in Guinea. However, no correlates of vaccine protection have been established for Ebola vaccines. Several Ebola vaccine candidates are available, but conducting randomized trials of additional candidates in outbreak situations has become difficult. Establishing correlates of vaccine protection would be useful in helping vaccine candidates become licensed. In this note, we explore power and sample calculations to study potential correlates of risk (protection) during an Ebola vaccination campaign in an outbreak situation under a number of assumptions. At an overall vaccine efficacy of 75%, 50 Ebola endpoints in the vaccinees provided good power. At an overall vaccine efficacy of 90%, 20 Ebola endpoints gave good power under certain assumptions. In the May - July 2018 Ebola outbreak in DRC, over 3000 individuals were vaccinated, with no reported cases in vaccinated individuals. To be feasible, this type of study need Ebola endpoints in vaccinated individuals.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic

BackgroundLocal mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties of the continental United State (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the continental US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US.\n\nMethodWe present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 epidemic, using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulate their potential to trigger local transmission at individual level.\n\nResultsWe estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025{degrees} x 0.025{degrees} cell level across the continental US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the one observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the model allow us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk is spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the continental US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission are among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission, and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV spread in the continental US.\n\nConclusionsThis framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochas-ticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic infections. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Considerations for the design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies

Public Health Emergencies (PHEs) provide a complex and challenging environment for vaccine evaluation. Under the R&D Blueprint Plan of Action, the World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a group of experts to agree on standard procedures to rapidly evaluate experimental vaccines during PHEs while maintaining the highest scientific and ethical standards. The Blueprint priority diseases, selected for their likelihood to cause PHEs and the lack of adequate medical countermeasures, were used to frame our methodological discussions. Here, we outline major vaccine study designs to be used in PHEs and summarize high-level recommendations for their use in this setting. We recognize that the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the Blueprint priority diseases may be highly uncertain and that the unique characteristics of the vaccines and outbreak settings may affect our study design. To address these challenges, our group underscores the need for novel, flexible, and responsive trial designs. We conclude that assignment to study groups using randomization is a key principle underlying rigorous study design and should be utilized except in exceptional circumstances. Advance planning for vaccine trial designs is critical for rapid and effective response to a PHE and to advance knowledge to address and mitigate future PHEs.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryAs part of the WHO research and development Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics, we describe key considerations for the design and analysis of trials and studies to evaluate experimental vaccines during public health emergencies.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017.

Numerous Zika virus vaccines are being developed. However, identifying sites to evaluate the efficacy of a Zika virus vaccine is challenging due to the general decrease in Zika virus activity. We compare results from three different modeling approaches to estimate areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission during 2017. The analysis focused on eight priority countries (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru). The models projected low incidence rates during 2017 for all locations in the priority countries but identified several subnational areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission in 2017. Given the projected low incidence of disease, the total number of participants, number of study sites, or duration of study follow-up may need to be increased to meet the efficacy study endpoints.

epidemiology↗