Biology subjects

Litvinova, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Litvinova, M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Habitat Type and Seasonal Variation as Drivers of Mosquito Proliferation in Urban Aquatic Microhabitats

Aedes aegypti is the primary vector species for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, and is adapted to thrive in urban environments. Their proximity to human populations and the adverse health outcomes associated with arboviral infections make mosquito control essential for reducing the risk of outbreaks and disease spread. Source reduction and larvicide applications are central components of mosquito control because they reduce adult mosquito emergence by targeting immature life stages. Therefore, our objective was to identify urban aquatic habitats used by Ae. aegypti and assess temporal variation in their contribution to immature mosquito production. To distinguish habitat use from habitat productivity, we considered larval presence as an indicator of oviposition or early-stage survival and pupal presence as evidence that a habitat supported development through most of the immature life cycle. Between July 2018 and October 2019, 2,482 inspections in Miami-Dade County, Florida, identified 2,756 aquatic habitats from which 19,466 Ae. aegypti larvae and 3,648 pupae were collected. Unique temporal trends were observed for both larval and pupal presence and abundance at county and habitat resolutions. County-level trends showed the highest larval and pupal production during Summer and the lowest pupal production during Winter. However, temporal patterns differed across habitats, supporting a context-dependent interpretation of habitat conduciveness, in which the same habitat type may support different levels of immature mosquito production depending on local environmental conditions. Our results show that habitats with frequent larval occurrence did not consistently have high pupal presence, indicating that larval presence does not necessarily reflect habitat productivity. Control strategies that prioritize habitats repeatedly associated with pupal production by season may improve year-round mosquito control, outbreak preparedness, and resource allocation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Short-term forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance to enhance mosquito control situational awareness

Conventional mosquito surveillance typically relies on contemporaneous data, making it challenging to anticipate future vector surges. To support proactive vector management, this study evaluates a multi-model forecasting framework designed to generate probabilistic 1-to 4-week-ahead forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance per trap night. The framework was validated using multi-year surveillance data across four US jurisdictions spanning varied environments (from subtropical to temperate and arid). We found that an ensemble approach aggregating statistical and machine learning models generally achieved the best performance across all locations and forecast horizons. Relative forecast performance improved as the forecast horizon extended from 1 to 4 weeks ahead. The most challenging data to forecast were primarily restricted to low mosquito activity periods or atypical population peaks with unusual timing or magnitude. While full integration into routine vector management workflows represents a long-term process requiring operational adaptation, this work advances forecasting research and establishes a baseline for translating these approaches into real-time applications for public health authorities, with downstream effects in mitigating the risks of mosquito-borne diseases.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Evaluating Field Trial Designs for Genetically Modified Mosquito Interventions: An In-Silico Simulation Approach

Mosquito control strategies based on the mass release of modified males, such as genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs), aim to suppress wild populations by impairing reproduction. Evaluating these interventions requires resource-intensive field trials, but a lack of standardized implementation practices, particularly regarding release ratios of modified males to wild female mosquitoes and trial timing, has led to variable outcomes. This studys objective is to propose a modeling tool for the "in-silico" simulation of trial designs before field implementation. To this aim, we developed an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics. As a case study, we calibrated the model using 2019-2023 Aedes aegypti surveillance data from Miami-Dade County, Florida, and compared two GMM trial designs as illustrative examples. Our results show that depending on the implementation choices (e.g., trial start date and duration, release ratio), trials yield highly variable outcomes. For example, changing the start date while fixing all other implementation details can lead to effectiveness between 50% and 90%. Our findings suggest that "in-silico" simulation is a valuable tool for improving trial protocol design, allowing stakeholders to test strategies and reduce outcome uncertainty before committing to a fieldwork experiment.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Millions of United States residents live where arbovirus vectors like Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus are abundant, and the risk of local outbreaks is amplified by viruses introduced via infected travelers. This threat is well-established: West Nile virus is already endemic in most of the country, and locally acquired dengue outbreaks are occurring with an increasing frequency. Therefore, identifying temporal trends in mosquito abundance and areas conducive to their proliferation is essential for public health preparedness and response planning. This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida. We analyzed eight years (2017-2024) of mosquito surveillance data from 308 mosquito traps operating across the county. We characterized the spatiotemporal distribution of female Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus and identified persistent areas of high mosquito abundance (hotspots) using local spatial analysis. A total of 399,418 Ae. aegypti and 1,250,879 Cx. quinquefasciatus were collected. The two species showed distinct and opposing seasonal patterns: Ae. aegypti abundance peaked during the summer wet season, whereas Cx. quinquefasciatus peaked in the winter dry season. Our analysis identified spatially consistent hotspots for both species, with some traps classified as hotspots in over half the years studied. The consistent seasonality of the two species and detection of hotspot areas across years provides operational value for long-term monitoring, evaluation of control interventions, and targeted resource allocation. As arboviruses continue to pose a public health risk in urban environments such as Miami-Dade County, the ability to anticipate and respond to vector population fluctuations is instrumental for effective prevention and control.

ecology↗