Biology subjects

Lippi, C. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Lippi, C. A..

12 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Newer Surveillance Data Extends our Understanding of the Niche of Rickettsia montanensis (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) Infection of the American Dog Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States.

BackgroundUnderstanding the geographic distribution of Rickettsia montanensis infections in Dermacentor variabilis is important for tick-borne disease management in the United States, as both a tick-borne agent of interest and a potential confounder in surveillance of other rickettsial diseases. Two previous studies modeled niche suitability for D. variabilis with and without R. montanensis, from 2002-2012, indicating that the D. variabilis niche overestimates the infected niche. This study updates these, adding data since 2012. MethodsNewer surveillance and testing data were used to update Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of D. variabilis, and R. montanensis infected D. variabilis, in the United States. Using random forest (RF) models, found to perform best in previous work, we updated the SDMs and compared them with prior results. Warrens I niche overlap metric was used to compare between predicted suitability for all ticks and pathogen positive niche models across datasets. ResultsWarrens I indicated <2% change in predicted niche, and there was no change in order of importance of environmental predictors, for D. variabilis or R. montanensis positive niche. The updated D. variabilis niche model overpredicted suitability compared to the updated R. montanensis positive niche in key peripheral parts of the range, but slightly underpredicted through the northern and midwestern parts of the range. This reinforces previous findings of a more constrained pathogen-positive niche than predicted by D. variabilis records alone. ConclusionsThe consistency of predicted niche suitability for D. variabilis in the United States, with the addition of nearly a decade of new data, corroborates this is a species with generalist habitat requirements. Yet a slight shift in updated niche distribution, even of low suitability, included more southern areas, pointing to a need for continued and extended monitoring and surveillance. This further underscores the importance of revisiting vector and vector-borne disease distribution maps.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi

BackgroundAnopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both P. falciparum (PF) and P. vivax (PV) malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. MethodsIn this paper we created global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. ResultsUsing the Global Burden of Disease regions approach, we found that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both PF and PV transmission potential. ConclusionsUnderstanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

What makes Hemidactylus invasions successful? A case study on the island of Curacao.

Hemidactylus spp. (House geckos) rank among the most successful invasive reptile species worldwide. Hemidactylus mabouia in particular has become ubiquitous across tropical urban settings in the Western Hemisphere. H. mabouia’s ability to thrive in close proximity to humans has led to the rapid displacement of native geckos in urban areas, however the mechanisms driving this displacement remain understudied. Here we combine data from nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes, stomach contents, and morphometric analyses of traits associated with feeding and locomotion to test alternate hypotheses of displacement between H. mabouia and a native gecko, Phyllodactylus martini, on the island of Curaçao. Consistent with expectations of direct food resource competition, we demonstrate substantial overlap of invertebrate prey resources between the species. Additionally, we found strong evidence from both diet content and stable isotope analyses that H. mabouia acts as a vertebrate predator, preying upon P. martini as well as other native and non-native reptiles. Finally, we show that H. mabouia possesses several morphological advantages, including larger sizes in feeding-associated traits and limb proportions that could offer a propulsive locomotor advantage on vertical surfaces. Together, these findings suggest the successful establishment of H. mabouia likely involves a combination of both exploitative interspecific competition and predation. Given the ubiquity of H. mabouia, illuminating the role of this species as both a competitor and a predator casts new concerns on the ecological and demographic impacts of this widespread urban invader.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

zoology↗

bioRxiv2019

Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention

BackgroundMalaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, we will see shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources.\n\nMethodsWe mapped the shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice-versa), and the number of people affected. We applied a temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability to continental gridded climate data for multiple future climate model projections. We aligned the resulting outcomes with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).\n\nResultsGeographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change places an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people will be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury.\n\nConclusionsThis study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision makers. In describing shifting seasonality, we can capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of crop pests and diseases in a changing world: a case study on citrus greening

O_LIPredicting where crop pests and diseases can occur, both now and in the future under different climate change scenarios, is a major challenge for crop management. One solution is to estimate the fundamental thermal niche of the pest/disease to indicate where establishment is possible. Here we develop methods for estimating and displaying the fundamental thermal niche of pests and pathogens and apply these methods to Huanglongbing (HLB), a vector-borne disease that is currently threatening the citrus industry worldwide.\nC_LIO_LIWe derive a suitability metric based on a mathematical model of HLB transmission between tree hosts and its vector Diaphorina citri, and incorporate the effect of temperature on vector traits using data from laboratory experiments performed at different temperatures. We validate the model using data on the historical range of HLB.\nC_LIO_LIOur model predicts that transmission of HLB is possible between 16{degrees}C and 33{degrees}C with peak transmission at ~25{degrees}C. The greatest uncertainty in our suitability metric is associated with the mortality of the vectors at peak transmission, and fecundity at the edges of the thermal range, indicating that these parameters need further experimental work.\nC_LIO_LIWe produce global thermal niche maps by plotting how many months each location is suitable for establishment of the pest/disease. This analysis reveals that the highest suitability for HLB occurs near the equator in large citrus-producing regions, such as Brazil and South-East Asia. Within the northern hemisphere, the Iberian peninsula and California are HLB suitable for up to 7 months of the year and are free of HLB currently.\nC_LIO_LIPolicy implications. The thermal niche map indicates the places at greatest risk of HLB establishment should the disease enter these regions. This indicates where surveillance should be focused to prevent establishment. Our mechanistic method can be used to predict new areas for HLB transmission under different climate change scenarios and is easily adapted to other vector-borne diseases.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Phenotypic and genotypic resistance to commonly used insecticides in Aedes aegypti among four cities in southern Ecuador

Insecticide resistance (IR) can undermine efforts to control vector species of public health importance. Aedes aegypti is the main vector of resurging diseases in the Americas such as yellow fever and dengue, as well as recently emerging chikungunya and Zika viruses, which have caused unprecedented epidemics in the region. Vector control remains the primary public health intervention to prevent outbreaks of Aedes transmitted diseases. In many high-risk regions, like southern Ecuador, we have limited information on IR in Ae. aegypti. In this study, IR status in Ae. aegypti was measured across four cities in El Oro Province in Ecuador using phenotypic assays and genetic screening for alleles associated with resistance to pyrethroid insecticides. Bottle bioassays showed significant inter-seasonal variation in resistance to deltamethrin, a pyrethroid insecticide commonly used by the Ministry of Health, and alpha cypermethrin, as well as differences in deltamethrin resistance between cities. There was also a significant difference in phenotypic response to the organophosphate, Malathion, between two of the cities during the second sampling season. Genotyping showed moderate to high frequencies of the V1016I and F1534C resistance alleles in all four cites. Frequency of resistance genotypes varied significantly between cities in the first sampling season, and not in the later seasons, suggesting a possible selective response to vector control activity. Overall, resistance levels were highest in Machala, a city where dengue is hyperendemic and where insecticide use has historically been more intense than in the other cities included in the study. Despite statistically significant evidence that resistance alleles conferred phenotypic resistance, there was not precise correspondence between these indicators. We found that 17.6% of F1534C and 45.6% of V1016I mutant mosquitoes were susceptible in the bottle bioassays. This study shows there is spatiotemporal variability in IR in southern Ecuador, and serves as an initial examination of the genotypic and phenotypic indicators of IR in this region, providing important information to guide the vector control interventions by the public health sector.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: implications of climate change for public health vector control

Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.\n\nAuthor summaryThe yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) is a medically important vector of arboviral diseases in Ecuador, such as dengue fever and chikungunya. Managing Ae. aegypti is a challenge to public health agencies in Latin America, where the use of limited resources must be planned in an efficient, targeted manner. The spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti can be used as a proxy for risk of disease exposure, guiding policy formation and decision-making. We used ecological niche models in this study to predict the range of Ae. aegypti in Ecuador, based on agency larval mosquito surveillance records and layers of environmental predictors (e.g. climate, altitude, and human population). The best models of current range were then projected to the year 2050 under a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. All modeled future scenarios predicted shifts in the range of Ae. aegypti, allowing us to assess human populations that may be at risk of becoming exposed to Aedes vectored diseases. As climate changes, we predict that communities living in areas of transitional elevation along the Andes mountain range are vulnerable to the expansion of Aedes aegypti.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Zika Virus Outbreak, Barbados, 2015 - 2016

Barbados is a Caribbean island country of approximately 285,000 people, with a thriving tourism industry. In 2015, Zika spread rapidly throughout the Americas, and its proliferation through the Caribbean islands followed suit. Barbados reported its first confirmed autochthonous Zika transmission to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in January 2016, a month before the global public health emergency was declared. Following detection of suspected Zika cases on Barbados in 2015, 926 individuals were described as suspected cases, and 147 lab confirmed cases were reported through December 2016, the end of the most recent epidemiological year. In this short report, we describe the epidemiological characteristics of 926 clinical case records which were originally suspected as cases of Zika, and which were subsequently sent for testing and confirmation; 147 were found positive for Zika, using RT-PCR methods, another 276 tested negative, and the remaining 503 were either pending results or still in the suspected category. Women were represented at about twice the rate of men in case records where sex was reported (71.9%), and confirmed cases (78.2%), and 19 of the confirmed positive cases were children under the age of 10.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Quantifying Seasonal and Diel Variation in Anopheline and Culex Human Biting Rates in Southern Ecuador

BackgroundQuantifying mosquito biting rates for specific locations enables estimation of mosquito-borne disease risk, and can inform intervention efforts. Measuring biting itself is fraught with ethical concerns, so the landing rate of mosquitoes on humans is often used as a proxy measure. Southern coastal Ecuador was historically endemic for malaria (P. falciparum and P. vivax), although successful control efforts in the 2000s eliminated autochthonous transmission (since 2011). This study presents an analysis of data collected during the elimination period.\n\nMethodsWe examined human landing catch (HLC) data for three mosquito taxa: 2 malaria vectors, Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles punctimacula, and grouped Culex spp. These data were collected by the National Vector Control Service of the Ministry of Health over a 5-year time span (2007 - 2012) in five cities in southern coastal Ecuador, at multiple households, in all months of the year, during dusk-dawn (18:00-6:00) hours, often at both indoor and outdoor locations. Hurdle models were used to determine if biting activity was fundamentally different for the three taxa, and to identify spatial and temporal factors influencing bite rate. Due to the many different approaches to studying and quantifying bite rates in the literature, we also created a glossary of terms, to facilitate comparative studies in the future.\n\nResultsBiting trends varied significantly with species and time. All taxa exhibited exophagic feeding behavior, and outdoor locations increased both the odds and incidence of bites across taxa. An. albimanus was most frequently observed biting, with an average of 4.7 bites per hour. The highest and lowest respective months for significant biting activity were March and July for An. albimanus, July and August for An. punctimacula, and February and July for Culex spp.\n\nConclusionsFine-scale spatial and temporal differences exist in biting patterns among mosquito taxa in southern coastal Ecuador. This analysis provides detailed information for targeting vector control and household level behavioral interventions. These data were collected as part of routine vector surveillance conducted by the Ministry of Health, but such data have not been collected since. Reinstating such surveillance measures would provide important information to aid in preventing malaria re-emergence.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Dengue fever and Aedes aegypti risk in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

IntroductionDengue fever is an emerging infectious disease in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador, with the first cases reported in 2002 and periodic outbreaks since then. Here we report the results of a pilot study conducted in two cities in 2014: Puerto Ayora (PA) on Santa Cruz Island, and Puerto Baquerizo Moreno (PB) on Santa Cristobal Island. The aims of this study were to assess the social-ecological risk factors associated with dengue and mosquito presence at the household-level.\n\nMethodsIn 2014 we conducted 100 household surveys (50 on each island) in neighborhoods with prior reported dengue. Adult mosquitoes were collected inside and outside the home, larval indices were determined through container surveys, and heads of households were interviewed to determine demographics, prior dengue infections, housing conditions, and knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding dengue. Multimodel selection methods were used to derive best-fit generalized linear regression (GLM) models of prior dengue infection, and the presence of Ae. aegypti in the home.\n\nResultsWe found that 24% of PB and 14% of PA respondents self-reported a prior dengue infection, and more PB homes than PA homes had Ae. aegypti. The top-ranked model for prior dengue infection included human movement - travel between neighborhoods, between islands, and to the mainland; demographics including salary level and education of the head of household, and increase with more people per room in a house, house condition, access to water quality issues, and dengue awareness. The top-ranked model for the presence of Ae. aegypti included housing conditions, including the presence of window screens and air conditioners, mosquito control actions, and dengue risk perception.\n\nDiscussion/conclusionTo our knowledge, this is the first study of dengue risk and Aedes aegypti in the Galapagos Islands. The findings that human movement within and between islands, and to and from the mainland, were important to reported dengue cases confirms concerns of this route of introduction and repeated transmission.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

The social and spatial ecology of dengue presence and burden during an outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2012

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is an ongoing public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics, yet we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial dynamics and social-ecological risk factors associated with a recent dengue outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador. We examined georeferenced dengue cases (n = 4,248) and block-level census data variables to identify potential social-ecological variables associated with the presence and burden of dengue fever in Guayaquil in 2012. We applied LISA and Morans I tests to analyze hotspots of dengue cases and used multimodel selection in R computing language to identify covariates associated with dengue incidence at the census zone level. Significant hotspots of dengue transmission were found near the North Central and Southern portions of Guayaquil. Significant risk factors for presence of dengue included poor housing conditions (e.g., poor condition of ceiling, floors, and walls), access to paved roads, and receipt of remittances. Counterintuitive positive correlations with dengue presence were observed with several municipal services such as garbage collection and access to piped water. Risk factors for the increased burden of dengue included poor housing conditions, garbage collection, receipt of remittances, and sharing a property with more than one household. Social factors such as education and household demographics were negatively correlated with increased dengue burden. Our findings elucidate underlying differences with dengue presence and burden and indicate the potential to develop dengue vulnerability and risk maps to inform disease prevention and control - information that is also relevant for emerging epidemics of chikungunya and zika.\n\nHighlightsO_LIIn 2012, Guayaquil, Ecuador had a large outbreak of dengue cases\nC_LIO_LIDengue case presence and burden exhibited spatial heterogeneity at the census block level\nC_LIO_LISocial-ecological drivers of case presence and burden differed in this outbreak, highlighting the need to model both types of epidemiological data\nC_LIO_LIAccess to municipal resources such as garbage collection and piped water had counterintuitive relationships with dengue presence, but poor housing, garbage collection and remittances correlated to dengue burden.\nC_LIO_LIOur findings inform risk mapping and vector control and surveillance allocation, relevant to this and other concurrent emergent epidemics such as chikungunya and zika\nC_LI

epidemiology↗