Biology subjects

Lehtonen, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Lehtonen, A..

10 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Rot or not? Uncovering the spatial patterns and drivers of Norway spruce root rot with harvester data

Root rot is a major problem for forestry, leading to reduced timber quality, growth losses, and increased disturbance risks. Harvester data provides a promising source of information for improving the knowledge on the root rot distribution. Here, we used harvester data (1) to map the risk of spruce root rot in southern and central Finland, and (2) to understand the drivers of the spatial patterns in rot occurrence. First, we built a statistical model predicting the percentage of stems affected by root rot on stand-level. To train the model, we used an extensive set of harvester data, containing 10,402 clear-cut forest stands, where the presence of root rot was recorded for each cut tree using an algorithm based on bucking patterns (i.e., cutting of the stem into different log assortments) recorded by the harvester. The model consisted of two parts, a fixed component describing the effects of different drivers of root rot, and a spatial random component describing the spatial patterns not explained by the fixed part of the model. The fixed part included forest and site attributes, landscape characteristics and proxies of forest-use legacies. The model was then used to map root rot risk, by predicting the probability of root rot occurrence using spatial data sets of the variables in the fixed part of the model, and the known rot status of locations in the data set for the random part of the model. Finally, the map was tested with an independent validation data, verifying its ability to identify the high-risk areas. Proxies of forest-use legacies, tree size and site fertility were found to drive the percentage of rot-affected stems in stands. The results quantify the root rot risk in Finland in higher detail than before and demonstrate the large potential of harvester data in informing about the risk of root rot in boreal forests.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Abundance of Northern Hemisphere tree species declines in the warm and arid regions of their climatic niches

Climate change is expected to drive species towards colder and wetter regions of their distribution with alternative processes such as forest management having the potential to alter species displacements. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely-distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species abundance across Northern Hemisphere forests and find a widespread decline in abundance across the whole of species climatic niches. Yet, our analysis revealed that this decline is heavily influenced by alterations at the stand-level and consequent stand development. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a consistent trend of species abundance optimum shifting towards cold and wet regions within their climatic niches. We provide species-specific information on the direction and magnitude of climate-driven changes in abundance that should be taken into account when designing conservation, management and restoration plans in an era of unprecedented human-caused environmental change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Beyond mean fitness: demographic stochasticity and resilience matter at tree species climatic edges.

AimLinking local population dynamics and species distributions is critical to predicting the impacts of climate change. While many studies focus on the mean fitness of populations, theory shows that species distributions can be shaped by demographic stochasticity or population resilience. Here we examine how mean fitness (measured by invasion rate), demographic stochasticity, and resilience (measured by the ability to recover from disturbance) constrain populations at the edges compared to the climatic center. LocationEurope: Spain, France, Germany, Finland, and Sweden. PeriodForest inventory data used for fitting the models cover the period from 1985 to 2013. Major taxaDominant European tree species; Angiosperms and Gymnosperms. MethodsWe developed dynamic population models covering the entire life cycle of 25 European tree species with climatically dependent recruitment models fitted to forest inventory data. We then ran simulations using integral projection and individual-based models to test how invasion rates, risk of stochastic extinction, and ability to recover from stochastic disturbances differ between the center and edges of species climatic niches. ResultsResults varied among species, but in general, demographic constraints were stronger at warm edges and for species in harsher climates. Conversely, recovery was more limiting at cold edges. In addition, we found that for several species, constraints at the edges were due to demographic stochasticity and recovery capacity rather than mean fitness. Main conclusionOur results highlight that mean fitness is not the only mechanism at play at the edges; demographic stochasticity and population capacity to recover also matter for European tree species. To understand how climate change will drive species range shifts, future studies will need to analyse the interplay between population mean growth rate and stochastic demographic processes as well as disturbances.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Spatial patterns of biomass change across Finland in 2009 - 2015

Forest characteristics vary largely at the regional level and in smaller geographic areas in Finland. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to changes in biomass and the soil type (e.g. upland soils vs. peatlands). Spatially accurate map data of forests and biomass changes could improve the ability to suggest optimal management alternatives for any patch of land, e.g. in terms of climate change mitigation. In our study, estimating and explaining spatial patterns of biomass change across Finland was the main interest. We analysed biomass changes on different soil and site types on forested land using the Finnish Multi-Source National Forest Inventory (MS-NFI) map layers of the 2009 and 2015 datasets. Silvicultural management and treatment units larger than individual pixels were created by automatic segmentation of the thematic maps. The segmented MS-NFI biomass maps of growing stocks, including above and below ground biomass resulted an average estimate of 77.7 tons ha-1 compared to the national forest inventory estimate of 76.5 tons ha-1 in 2015 for Finland. Forest soil type had a similar effect on average biomass in segmented MS-NFI and NFI data. Despite good regional and country-level results, at the segment level the biomass distributions were narrowed and averaging of biomass estimates was observed. Hence, biomass changes on segments can be considered only approximate values; also, those small differences in average biomass may accumulate when map layers from more than one time point are compared. MS-NFI classification results depend on the satellite images and field data used, causing variation in successive inventories. In addition, to avoid false biomass change observations due to the low growth rate of boreal forests, a six-year study period was set. A kappa of 0.44 was achieved for precision when comparing undisturbed and disturbed forest stands in the Global Forest Cover layer and MS-NFI segmented map, indicating the low ability of the global forest map to identify land cover changes for Finland. The segmented biomass maps provide a useful tool for forest owners to analyse carbon stock changes in their forests and how to affect the amount of carbon by forest management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Mapping the probability of forest snowdisturbances in Finland

The changing forest disturbance regimes emphasize the need for improved damage risk information. Here, our aim was to (1) improve the current understanding of snow damage risks by assessing the importance of abiotic factors, particularly the modelled snow load on trees, versus forest properties in predicting the probability of snow damage, (2) produce a snow damage probability map for Finland. We also compared the results for winters with typical snow load conditions and a winter with exceptionally heavy snow loads. To do this, we used damage observations from the Finnish national forest inventory (NFI) to create a statistical snow damage occurrence model, spatial data layers from different sources to use the model to predict the damage probability for the whole country in 16 x 16 m resolution. Snow damage reports from forest owners were used for testing the final map. Our results showed that best results were obtained when both abiotic and forest variables were included in the model. However, in the case of the high snow load winter, the model with only abiotic predictors performed nearly as well as the full model and the ability of the models to identify the snow damaged stands was higher than in other years. The results showed patterns of forest adaptation to high snow loads, as spruce stands in the north were less susceptible to damage than in southern areas and long-term snow load reduced the damage probability. The model and the derived wall-to-wall map were able to discriminate damage from no-damage cases on a good level. The damage probability mapping approach identifies the drivers of snow disturbances across forest landscapes and can be used to spatially estimate the current and future disturbance risks in forests, informing practical forestry and decision-making and supporting the adaptation to the changing disturbance regimes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Occurrence but not intensity of mortality rises towards the climatic trailing edge of tree species ranges in European forests.

AimTree mortality is increasing worldwide, leading to changes in forest composition and altering global biodiversity. Yet, due to the multi-faceted stochastic nature of tree mortality, large-scale spatial patterns of mortality across species ranges and their underlying drivers remain difficult to understand. Our main goal is to describe the geographical patterns and drivers of the occurrence and intensity of tree mortality in Europe. We hypothesize that the occurrence of mortality represents background mortality and is higher in the margin than the core populations, whereas the intensity of mortality could have a more even distribution according to the spatial and temporal stochasticity of die-off events. LocationEurope (Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Finland) Time period1981 to 2014. Major taxa studiedMore than 1.5 million trees belonging to 20 major forest tree species MethodsWe develop hurdle models to tease apart the occurrence and intensity of tree mortality in National Forest Inventory plots at range-wide scale. The occurrence of mortality indicates that at least one tree has died in the plot and the intensity of mortality refers to the number of trees dead per plot. ResultsThe highest mortality occurrence was found in peripheral regions and the climatic trailing edge linked with drought, whereas the intensity of mortality was driven by competition, drought and high temperatures and was uniformly scattered across species ranges. Main conclusionsOur findings provide a new perspective in our understanding of tree mortality across species ranges. We show that tree background mortality but not die-off is generally higher in the trailing edge populations, but whether other demographic traits such as growth, reproduction and regeneration would also decrease at the trailing edge of European tree populations needs to be explored.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Tree demographic performance of European tree species at their hot and cold edges.

O_LISpecies range limits are thought to result from a decline in demographic performance at range edges. However, recent studies reporting contradictory patterns in species demographic performance at their edges cast doubt on our ability to predict climate change demographic impacts. To understand these inconsistent demographic responses at the edges, we need to shift the focus from geographic to climatic edges and analyse how species responses vary with climatic constraints at the edge and species ecological strategy. C_LIO_LIHere we parameterised integral projection models with climate and competition effects for 27 tree species using forest inventory data from over 90,000 plots across Europe. Our models estimate size-dependent climatic responses and evaluate their effects on two life trajectory metrics: lifespan and passage time - the time to grow to a large size. Then we predicted growth, survival, lifespan, and passage time at the hot and dry or cold and wet edges and compared them to their values at the species climatic centre to derive indices of demographic response at the edge. Using these indices, we investigated whether differences in species demographic response between hot and cold edges could be explained by their position along the climate gradient and functional traits related to their climate stress tolerance. C_LIO_LIWe found that at cold and wet edges of European tree species, growth and passage time were constrained, whereas at their hot and dry edges, survival and lifespan were constrained. Demographic constraints at the edge were stronger for species occurring in extreme conditions, i.e. in hot edges of hot-distributed species and cold edges of cold-distributed species. Species leaf nitrogen content was strongly linked to their demographic responses at the edge. In contrast, we found only weak links with wood density, leaf size, and xylem vulnerability to embolism. C_LIO_LISynthesis. Our study presents a more complicated picture than previously thought with demographic responses that differ between hot and cold edges. Predictions of climate change impacts should be refined to include edge and species characteristics. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Local patch occupancy dynamics match the distribution of European trees at continental scale

Aim Processes driving current tree species distribution are still largely debated. Attempts to relate species distribution and population demography metrics have shown mixed results. In this context, we would like to test the hypotheses that the metapopulation processes of colonization and extinction are linked to species distribution models.Location Europe: Spain, France, Germany, Finland, and Sweden.Taxon Angiosperms and Gymnosperms.Methods For the 17 tree species analyzed we fitted species distribution model (SDM) relating environmental variables to presence absence data across Europe. Then using independent data from national forest inventories across Europe we tested whether colonization and extinction probabilities are related to occurrence probability estimated by the SDMs. Finally, we tested how colonization and extinction respectively drive probability of presence at the metapopulation equilibrium.Results We found that for most species at least one process (colonization/extinction) is related to the occurrence probability, but rarely both.Main conclusions Our study supports the view that metapopulation dynamics are partly related to SDM occurrence probability through one of the metapopulation probabilities. However these links are relatively weak and the metapopulation models tend to overestimate the occurrence probability. Our results call for caution in model extrapolating SDM models to metapopulation dynamics.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

High-resolution mapping of forest vulnerability to wind for disturbance-aware forestry and climate change adaptation

Windstorms cause major disturbances in European forests and forest management can play a key role in making forests more persistent to disturbances. However, better information is needed to support decision making that effectively accounts for wind disturbances. Here we show how empirical probability models of wind damage, combined with existing spatial datasets, can be used to provide fine-scale spatial information about disturbance probability over large areas. First, we created stand-level damage probability models with predictors describing forest characteristics, recent forest management history and local wind, soil, site and climate conditions. We tested three different methods for creating the damage probability models - generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM) and boosted regression trees (BRT). Then, the damage probability maps were calculated by combining the models (GLM, GAM and BRT) with GIS data sets representing the model predictors. Finally, we demonstrated the predictive performance of the maps with a large, independent test data, which shows that the damage probability maps are able to identify vulnerable forests also in new wind damage events (AUC > 0.7). Use of the more complex methods (GAM and BRT) was not found to improve the predictive performance of the map compared to GLM, and therefore we would suggest using the more simple GLM method that can be more easily interpreted. The map allows identification of vulnerable forest areas in high spatial resolution (16 x 16 m2 raster resolution), making it useful in assessing the vulnerability of individual forest stands when making management decisions. The map is also a powerful tool for communicating disturbance risks to forest owners and managers and it has the potential to steer forest management practices to a more disturbance aware direction. Our study showed that in spite of the inherent stochasticity of the wind and damage phenomena at all spatial scales, it can be modelled with good accuracy across large spatial scales when existing ground and earth observation data sources are combined smartly. With improving data quality and availability, map-based risk assessments can be extended to other regions and other disturbance types.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Similar patterns of background mortality across Europe are mostly driven by drought in European beech and a combination of drought and competition in Scots pine.

AimBackground tree mortality is a complex demographic process that affects forest structure and long-term dynamics. We aimed to test how drought intensity interacts with interspecific and intraspecific competition (or facilitation) in shaping individual mortality patterns across tree species ranges. LocationEuropean latitudinal gradient (Spain to Finland). Time period1985 - 2014. Major taxa studiedScots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). MethodsWe performed logistic regression models based on individual tree mortality recorded in five European National Forest Inventories. We computed the relative importance of climatic drought intensity, basal area of conspecific and heterospecific trees (proxy of indirect intra- and interspecific competition or facilitation) and the effects of their interactions on mortality along the latitudinal gradient of both species range. ResultsIncrease in drought intensity over the study period was associated with higher mortality rates in both species. Drought was the most important driver of beech mortality at almost all latitudes while Scots pine mortality was mainly driven by basal area. High conspecific basal area was associated with high mortality rates in both species while high heterospecific basal area was correlated with mortality rates that were high in Scots pine but low in beech. Main conclusionsBeech mortality was directly affected by drought while Scots pine mortality was indirectly affected by drought through interactions with basal area. Despite their different sensitivity to drought and basal area, the highest predicted mortality rates for both species were at the ecotone between Mediterranean and cool temperate biomes, which can be explained by the combined effect of drought and competition. In the context of global warming, which is expected to be particularly strong in the Mediterranean biome, our results suggest that populations at the southern limit of species ranges may experience increased mortality rates in the near future. BIOSKETCHThe authors research is focused on functional trait ecology and global change, with special attention to mortality and demography processes. The authors use modelling multidisciplinary approaches to understand complex processes in ecology on a large geographical scale.

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