Biology subjects

Lambin, X.

Publications and source records attributed to Lambin, X..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

One scale does not fit all: invasive predator identity determines the impact on native prey

O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Applying integrated population models to guide conservation planning: Western Capercaillie in Scotland

O_LIMany conservation interventions prove ineffective because they lack a rigorous evidence-base. Multifactorial drivers and data limitations often hinder anticipatory planning and are difficult to tackle with standard methods. Predictive modelling approaches that integrate diverse data sources with biological hypotheses can bridge this gap by clarifying the drivers of decline and evaluating management options under uncertainty. C_LIO_LI We developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) applicable to lekking species, combining incomplete data from different life stages and seasons while accounting for observation error. IPMs are widely recognised for reducing bias relative to single-data-stream analyses, yet their application in conservation planning remains limited. C_LIO_LIWe applied the model to the threatened Western Capercaillie population in Scotland, which has been declining since at least the 1980s despite decades of conservation efforts, a typical case requiring urgent, evidence-based management. By fitting the model to 30 years of biased and incomplete monitoring data, we investigated associations between demographic processes and their potential drivers, including weather variables, fence collision mortality and a proxy of predation pressure. We used model predictions to evaluate the joint effectiveness of proposed management actions aimed at improving vital rates, including fence management and diversionary feeding. C_LIO_LIData integration improved population estimate precision by 17-49% relative to standalone national survey estimates, confirming that the decline continued from 1990-2023. Reproductive rate was related to the pattern of April warming, negatively affected by pre-breeding precipitation and positively by vole abundance, the latter consistent with the alternative prey hypothesis. Model predictions indicated that combining diversionary feeding with fence removal produced the most favourable conservation outcomes, but growth remained limited and uncertainty included possible continued decline. C_LIO_LI5. This modelling approach forms a key component of Scotlands Capercaillie Emergency Plan 2025-2030, guiding management by assessing population-level responses and predicting conservation intervention outcomes. In future, the model could support formal adaptive management through iterative evaluation of interventions as new data become available. Beyond this case study, our integrated approach offers a transferable framework for managing multifactorial declines in other threatened species under uncertainty. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Empirical evidence that diversionary feeding increases productivity in ground-nesting birds.

The recovery of predator populations can negatively impact other species of conservation concern, leading to conservation conflicts. Evidence-based solutions are needed to resolve such conflicts without sacrificing hard-won gains for recovering species. Well-designed, large-scale field experiments provide the most rigorous evidence to justify new forms of intervention, but they are notoriously hard to implement. Further, monitoring scarce species without negative impacts is challenging, calling for indirect and non-invasive monitoring methods. Uncertainties remain about whether observational monitoring adequately reflects the true processes of interest. Having conducted a well-designed, large-scale, diversionary feeding field experiment that reduced artificial nest depredation, we evaluated whether this translated to capercaillie productivity in the same area. Using camera traps aimed at dust baths, we non-invasively monitored capercaillie hen productivity over 3 years and in 30 1km2 grid cells under a randomised control (un-fed) and treatment (fed) design. Diversionary feeding significantly increased the probability that a detected hen would have a brood. The impact of diversionary feeding did not change over the brooding season, indicating that hens without a brood had failed due to nest depredation rather than predation of chicks. The probability of detecting a hen with a brood was 0.85 (0.65-0.94) in fed locations, more than double that in unfed locations, which was 0.37 (CI 0.2-0.57). The average brood size was reduced over time, but the change did not differ between fed and unfed sites. This is in line with natural mortality occurring independently of diversionary feeding. Importantly, the increased chance of having a brood in the fed areas and the predicted brood size leads to a substantial increase in overall productivity - the expected number of chicks per hen - at the end of the sampling season. This was just 0.82 (0.35 - 1.29) chicks per hen in the unfed sites and more than double 1.90 (1.24 - 2.55) chicks in fed sites. This study provides compelling empirical evidence that diversionary feeding positively affects productivity, offering an effective non-lethal solution to the increasingly common conservation conflict where both predator and prey are afforded protection.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Improving the integration of AI into existing ecological inference workflows

O_LIArtificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionised the process of identifying species and individuals in audio recordings and camera trap images. However, despite developments in sensor technology, machine learning, and statistical methods, a general AI-assisted data-to-inference pipeline has yet to emerge. C_LIO_LIWe argue that this is, in part, due to a lack of clarity around several decisions in existing workflows, including: the choice of classifier used (e.g., semi- vs. fully automated); how classifier confidence scores are used and interpreted; and the availability and selection of appropriate statistical methods for drawing ecological inferences. C_LIO_LIHere, we attempt to conceptualise a general workflow associated with automated tools in ecology. We motivate this perspective using our experiences with occupancy modelling using monitoring data collected through passive acoustic monitoring and camera trapping, identifying priority areas for future developments. C_LIO_LIWe offer an accessible guide to support the ecological community in navigating and capitalising on rapid technological and methodological advances. We describe how different error types arise from both sensor-based monitoring and from classifiers themselves; how different error types are handled at each stage of the workflow; and finally, implications and opportunities associated with deciding on methods used at each step of the pipeline. C_LIO_LIWe recommend that "black box" tools like neural network classification algorithms should be embraced in ecology, but widespread uptake requires more formal integration of AI into the existing ecological inference workflows. Like ecological AI more broadly, however, successful development of new data-to-inference pipelines is a multidisciplinary endeavour that requires input from everyone invested in collecting, processing, analysing, and using ecological monitoring data. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Evaluating diversionary feeding as a method to resolve conservation conflicts in a recovering ecosystem

1. The recovery of mammalian predators of conservation concern in Europe is a success story, but their impact on some prey species of conservation concern may cause conservation dilemmas. This calls for effective intervention strategies that mitigate predator impacts without compromising their recovery. 2. We evaluated diversionary feeding as a management intervention tool to reduce depredation on nests of rapidly declining Western capercaillies in Scotland. We studied the influence of diversionary feeding provision on the fates of artificial nests deployed using a replicated and representative randomised landscape-scale experiment. This comprised 30 paired control (no diversionary feeding) and treatment (diversionary feeding applied) sites, 60 in total, each containing six artificial nests distributed across 600 km2. The experiment was replicated over two years, and in the second year, the control-treatment pairs were reversed, yielding 60 treatment and 60 control sites and 720 artificial nests. 3. Diversionary feeding substantially reduced depredation of artificial nests, translating into an 83% increase in predicted nest survival over 28 days of incubation. The increase in survival was mostly accounted for by a reduction in the probability that a pine marten, the main nest predator, consumed or cached eggs. Diversionary food also significantly reduced nest predation by badgers, although the magnitude of this effect varied by year. 4. Diversionary feeding is an easily employable method shown in this study to reduce predator impact (functional) without lethal (numerical) intervention. Managers should proceed with its application for conserving capercaillie in Scotland without delay.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Lack of detection of SARS-CoV-2 in British wildlife 2020-21 and first description of a stoat (Mustela erminea) Minacovirus

2.Repeat spillover of SARS-CoV-2 into new hosts has highlighted the critical role of cross species transmission of coronaviruses and establishment of new reservoirs of virus in pandemic and epizootic spread of coronaviruses. Species particularly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 spill-over include Mustelidae (mink, ferrets and related animals), cricetid rodents (hamsters and related animals), felids domestic cats and related animals) and white tailed deer. These predispositions led us to screen British wildlife with sarbecovirus specific qPCR and pan coronavirus PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 using samples collected during the human pandemic to establish if widespread spill-over was occurring. Fourteen wildlife species (n=402) were tested, including : 2 Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes), 101 Badgers (Meles meles), 2 wild American Mink (Neogale vison), 41 Pine Marten (Martes martes), 2 Weasels (Mustela nivalis), 7 Stoats (Mustela erminea), 108 Water Voles (Arvicola amphibius), 39 Bank voles (Myodes glareolous), 10 Field Voles (Microtus agrestis), 15 Wood Mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), 1 Common Shrew (Sorex aranaeus), 2 Pygmy Shrews (Sorex minutus), 2 Hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and 75 Eurasian Otters (Lutra lutra). No cases of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in any animals, however a novel minacovirus related to mink and ferret alphacoronaviruses was detected in stoats recently introduced to the Orkney Islands. This group of viruses is of interest due to pathogenicity in ferrets. The impact of this virus on the health of stoat populations remains to be established.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Fishing for mammals: landscape-level monitoring of terrestrial and semi-aquatic communities using eDNA from lotic ecosystems

O_LIEnvironmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has revolutionised biomonitoring in both marine and freshwater ecosystems. However, for semi-aquatic and terrestrial animals, the application of this technique remains relatively untested.\nC_LIO_LIWe first assess the efficiency of eDNA metabarcoding in detecting semi-aquatic and terrestrial mammals in natural lotic ecosystems in the UK by comparing sequence data recovered from water and sediment samples to the mammalian communities expected from historical data. Secondly, we evaluate the detection efficiency of eDNA samples compared to multiple conventional non-invasive survey methods (latrine surveys and camera trapping) using occupancy modelling.\nC_LIO_LIeDNA metabarcoding detected a large proportion of the expected mammalian community within each area. Common species in the areas were detected at the majority of sites. Several key species of conservation concern in the UK were detected by eDNA in areas where authenticated records do not currently exist, but potential false positives were also identified for several non-native species.\nC_LIO_LIWater-based eDNA samples provided comparable results to conventional survey methods in per unit of survey effort for three species (water vole, field vole, and red deer) using occupancy models. The comparison between survey effort to reach a detection probability of [≥]0.95 revealed that 3-6 water replicates would be equivalent to 3-5 latrine surveys and 5-30 weeks of single camera deployment, depending on the species.\nC_LIO_LISynthesis and Applications. eDNA metabarcoding represents an extremely promising tool for monitoring mammals, allowing for the detection of multiple species simultaneously, and provides comparable results to widely-used conventional survey methods. eDNA from freshwater systems delivers a terrestrial dividend by detecting both semi-aquatic and terrestrial mammalian communities, and provides a basis for future monitoring at a landscape level over larger spatial and temporal scales (i.e. long-term monitoring at national levels).\nC_LI

ecology↗