Laleh, N. G. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Can the Kuznetsov Model Replicate and Predict Cancer Growth in Humans?

Several mathematical models to predict tumor growth over time have been developed in the last decades. A central aspect of such models is the interaction of tumor cells with immune effector cells. The Kuznetsov model (Kuznetsov et al. (1994), Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 295-321) is the most prominent of these models and has been used as a basis for many other related models and theoretical studies. However, none of these models have been validated with large-scale real-world data of human patients treated with cancer immunotherapy. In addition, parameter estimation of these models remains a major bottleneck on the way to model-based and data-driven medical treatment. In this study, we quantitatively fit Kuznetsovs model to a large dataset of 1472 patients, of which 210 patients have more than six data points, by estimating the model parameters of each patient individually. We also conduct a global practical identifiability analysis for the estimated parameters. We thus demonstrate that several combinations of parameter values could lead to accurate data fitting. This opens the potential for global parameter estimation of the model, in which the values of all parameters are fixed for all patients. Furthermore, by omitting the last two or three data points, we show that the model can be extrapolated and predict future tumor dynamics. This paves the way for a more clinically relevant application of mathematical tumor modeling, in which the treatment strategy could be adjusted in advance according to the models future predictions.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2021

Benchmarking artificial intelligence methods for end-to-end computational pathology

Artificial intelligence (AI) can extract subtle visual information from digitized histopathology slides and yield scientific insight on genotype-phenotype interactions as well as clinically actionable recommendations. Classical weakly supervised pipelines use an end-to-end approach with residual neural networks (ResNets), modern convolutional neural networks such as EfficientNet, or non-convolutional architectures such as vision transformers (ViT). In addition, multiple-instance learning (MIL) and clustering-constrained attention MIL (CLAM) are being used for pathology image analysis. However, it is unclear how these different approaches perform relative to each other. Here, we implement and systematically compare all five methods in six clinically relevant end-to-end prediction tasks using data from N=4848 patients with rigorous external validation. We show that histological tumor subtyping of renal cell carcinoma is an easy task which approaches successfully solved with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of above 0.9 without any significant differences between approaches. In contrast, we report significant performance differences for mutation prediction in colorectal, gastric and bladder cancer. Weakly supervised ResNet-and ViT-based workflows significantly outperformed other methods, in particular MIL and CLAM for mutation prediction. As a reason for this higher performance we identify the ability of ResNet and ViT to assign high prediction scores to highly informative image regions with plausible histopathological image features. We make all source codes publicly available at https://github.com/KatherLab/HIA, allowing easy application of all methods on any end-to-end problem in computational pathology.

bioinformatics↗