Kriticos, D. J. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2023

Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographic range of the Mediterranean fruit fly

The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur in places previously considered unsuitable for year-round survival. We explore the expansion of the climatically suitable areas for a horticultural pest, the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe and California. We reviewed and refined a published CLIMEX model for C. capitata, taking into consideration new records in marginal locations, with a particular focus on Europe. To assess the model fit and to aid in interpreting the meaning of the new European distribution records, we used a time series climate dataset to explore the temporal patterns of climate suitability for C. capitata from 1970 to 2019. At selected bellwether sites in Europe, we found statistically significant trends in increasing climate suitability, as well as a substantial northward expansion in the modelled potential range. In California, we also found a significant trend of northward and altitudinal expansion of areas suitable for C. capitata establishment. These results provide further evidence of climate change impacts on species distributions and the need for innovative responses to increased invasion threats.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Whole genome sequencing of global Spodoptera frugiperda populations: evidence for complex, multiple introductions across the Old World

Native to the Americas, the invasive Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm; FAW) was reported in West Africa in 2016, followed by chronological order of detections across the Old World and the hypothesis of an eastward Asia expansion. We explored population genomic signatures of American and Old World FAW and identified 12 maternal mitochondrial DNA genome lineages across the invasive range, while from 870 high-quality nuclear single nucleotide polymorphic DNA markers five distinct New World population clusters were identified, broadly reflected their native geographical ranges and absence of host-plant preferences. We identified unique admixed Old World populations, and admixed and non-admixed Asian FAW individuals, all of which suggested multiple introductions underpinned the pests global spread. Directional gene flow from the East into eastern Africa was also detected, in contrast to the west-to-east spread hypothesis. Our study demonstrated population genomic approaches via international partnership to address global emerging pest threats and biosecurity challenges.

genomics↗