Biology subjects

Kraemer, M. U. G.

Publications and source records attributed to Kraemer, M. U. G..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Quantifying the impact of dengue containment activities using high-resolution observational data

Dengue virus causes over 96 million cases worldwide per year and is ex-panding rapidly in geographic range, especially in urban areas. Containment activities are an essential part of reducing the public health burden caused by dengue, but systematic evidence on the comparative efficacy of activities from the field is lacking. To our knowledge, the effect of containment activities on local (sub-city) scale disease dynamics has never been systematically characterized using empirical containment and case data. We combine data from a comprehensive dengue containment monitoring system with confirmed dengue case data from the local government hospitals to estimate the efficacy of seven common containment activities in two urban areas in Pakistan. We use a modified version of the time series Suspected Infected Recovered frame-work to estimate how the reproductive number, R0, of the outbreak changed in relation to deployment of each containment activity. We also estimate the spatial dependence of cases based on deployment of each containment activity. Both analyses suggest that activities aimed at the adult phase of the mosquito lifecycle have the highest efficacy, with fogging having the largest quantifiable effect in reducing cases immediately after deployment. In examining the efficacy of containment activities contemporaneously deployed in the same locations, results here can guide recommendations for future deployment of resources during dengue outbreaks in urban settings.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic that began in Dec 2016 in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes sp. vectors highlights the urgent need to monitor the risk of re-establishment of domestic YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age- and sex-distribution of human cases in Brazil is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally using a new protocol reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission restricted to Minas Gerais, followed in late 2016 by a rise in viral spillover to humans, and the southwards spatial expansion of the epidemic towards previously YFV-free areas. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real-time, contributing to the global strategy of eliminating future yellow fever epidemics.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Epidemic establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in Northeast Brazil1. Brazil has the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (>200,000 by 24 Dec 20162) as well as the greatest number of cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed cases by 31 Dec 20162). Following the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, 47 countries and territories in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 22 of these reporting ZIKV-associated severe disease3. Yet the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of such information for interpreting past trends in reported microcephaly. To address this we generated 53 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, including data generated by the ZiBRA project - a mobile genomics lab that travelled across Northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Joint analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data estimate that the ZIKV epidemic first became established in NE Brazil by March 2014 and likely disseminated from there, both nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates of the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil coincide with periods of high vector suitability in recipient regions and indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in those regions. NE Brazils role in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the virus basic reproduction number.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryVirus genomes reveal the establishment of Zika virus in Northeast Brazil and the Americas, and provide an appropriate timeframe for baseline (pre-Zika) microcephaly in different regions.

genomics↗