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Kraemer, M. U.

Publications and source records attributed to Kraemer, M. U..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States revealed through genomic epidemiology

Zika virus (ZIKV) is causing an unprecedented epidemic linked to severe congenital syndromes1,2. In July 2016, mosquito-borne ZIKV transmission was first reported in the continental United States and since then, hundreds of locally-acquired infections have been reported in Florida3. To gain insights into the timing, source, and likely route(s) of introduction of ZIKV into the continental United States, we tracked the virus from its first detection in Miami, Florida by direct sequencing of ZIKV genomes from infected patients and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We show that at least four distinct ZIKV introductions contributed to the outbreak in Florida and that local transmission likely started in the spring of 2016 - several months before its initial detection. By analyzing surveillance and genetic data, we discovered that ZIKV moved among transmission zones in Miami. Our analyses show that most introductions are phylogenetically linked to the Caribbean, a finding corroborated by the high incidence rates and traffic volumes from the region into the Miami area. By comparing mosquito abundance and travel flows, we describe the areas of southern Florida that are especially vulnerable to ZIKV introductions. Our study provides a deeper understanding of how ZIKV initiates and sustains transmission in new regions.

epidemiology

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting.

Zika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.

epidemiology