Kozynenko, I. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2024

Bioclimatic modelling of the spread of the West Nile virus in Europe, with a special focus on Ukraine

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging zoonotic pathogen transmitted by mosquitoes and causes fever and encephalitis in humans, equines, and birds.While all WNV lineages can cause human illness, the lineage WNV2 has gained particular attention in Europe due to its rapid spread and potential for causing severe disease, with large outbreaks happening in summer months.While WNV is not as prevalent in Ukraine as in some other regions of Europe, outbreaks do occur periodically. This is becoming an alarming trend. In this study we focused on the ability of bioclimatic predictors to envisage WNV outbreaks in Europe, making a special emphasis on Ukraine. For this purpose we employ a machine learning methodology for drawing predictions and the SHAP framework from XAI (i.e., eXplainable artificial intelligence) to rank and uncover the most influential WNV drivers.In terms of bioclimatic predictors, the most important for SDM constructions at the European scale was the mean daily air temperature of the coldest quarter and temperature seasonality for Ukraine. Our model suggests that under an impending health threat are areas in the west (excluding the Carpathian highlands) and south of Ukraine.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks, that is transmitting Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package flexsdm and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat suitability changes for the focus species. The models, validated against Lyme disease incidence rates, predicted a 1.5-fold increase in suitable habitats in Latvia opposite to a 4.5-fold decrease in suitable habitats within Ukraine over the coming decades. SHAP values were analyzed to determine the most influential climatic features affecting tick distribution, providing insights for future vector control and disease prevention strategies: here name the drivers in decreasing order. This implies an increased presence of ticks in Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland), Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Denmark, and Belarus. These findings largely coincide with our projections regarding bioclimatic suitability for ticks in Ukraine and Latvia. These shifts reflect broader patterns of vector redistribution driven by global warming, with potential expansions in higher altitudes and latitudes. Our findings highlight the urgent need to adapt public health planning to the evolving landscape of vector-borne diseases under climate change.

ecology↗