Biology subjects

Kimball, J. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Kimball, J. S..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Shifting Resilience: Trends and Predictors of Mesic Resource Productivity in Western U.S. Rangelands

Mesic resources, the late-season herbaceous vegetation found in riparian areas and wet meadows, provide disproportionately important forage and habitat across western U.S. rangelands, yet their response to climatic variability and anthropogenic influences remains poorly understood. Using a 40-year Landsat time series (1984-2024), we quantified trends in late-season productivity (NDVI) across 4.5 million hectares of the sagebrush biome and applied random forest models to distinguish between temporal and spatial predictors of mesic resource productivity. We identified a fundamental shift in how mesic resources respond to drought: from 1984 to 2004, mesic productivity was strongly correlated with drought severity (Palmer Drought Severity Index, R{superscript 2} = 0.92), but this relationship weakened substantially in the next two decades (2005-2024; R{superscript 2} = 0.28), during which time productivity increased despite persistent aridity. Temporal modeling identified rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations as the strongest predictor of this shift, consistent with enhanced plant water-use efficiency under CO2 fertilization. Spatially, large agricultural valley floodplains act as anthropogenic refugia, sustaining productive mesic resources through flood irrigation and subsequent groundwater recharge into late summer. These findings suggest that human water management and physiological shifts in vegetation are currently buffering mesic systems against meteorological drought throughout U.S. rangelands. However, this apparent buffering is spatially heterogeneous and may mask vulnerability to groundwater depletion, shifts in precipitation regimes, and woody encroachment. Sustaining these vital ecosystems will require conservation approaches that go beyond climate monitoring to include balanced management considering both agricultural and ecological water needs and constraints.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Beyond Uplands: Integrating Riparian Areas into Sagebrush Conservation Design for a More Resilient West

Riparian and mesic habitats are essential biological hotspots in the American West, supporting 80% of wildlife, yet they are often assessed in isolation from surrounding uplands. To address this, we developed a framework that complements the Sagebrush Conservation Design to incorporate these habitats into broader landscape conservation planning. By analyzing 40 years of riparian vegetation data alongside sagebrush ecosystems, we classified watersheds into three actionable management tiers based on water availability and vegetation health. This prioritization is operationalized through the Mesic Analysis Platform, an interactive tool that identifies stream reaches with floodplain disconnection as key targets for restoration. Notably, the greatest restoration potential exists on private lands, where 63-65% of identified mesic habitats are found. This framework provides a practical strategy to integrate social feasibility with ecological priority, fostering the multi-jurisdictional partnerships vital to connecting water resources with the broader sagebrush ecosystem.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Beneficial 'inefficiencies' of western ranching: Flood-irrigated hay production sustains wetland systems by mimicking historic hydrologic processes

Ranching in the American West has long relied on riparian ecosystems to grow grass-hay to feed livestock in winter and during drought. Producers seasonally flood grasslands for hay production using stream diversions and low-tech flood-irrigation on riparian floodplains. Inundation mimics natural processes that sustain riparian vegetation and recharge groundwater. The recent doubling in use of more efficient irrigation approaches, such as center-pivot sprinklers, threatens to accelerate climate change impacts by unintentionally decoupling more inefficient, traditional practices that sustain riparian systems. To address this information gap, we developed an exhaustive spatial inventory of grass-hay production and combined it with monthly surface water distributions modeled from satellite data. Surface water data were classified by wetland hydroperiod and used to estimate the proportion of wetlands supported by grass-hay production in the Intermountain West, USA. Elevation and proportion of grass-hay relative to other irrigated lands were enumerated to examine differences in their positions and abundance within landscapes. Lastly, we overlaid the delineated grass-hay wetlands with LANDFIRE pre-Euro-American Settings layer to quantify the efficacy of flood irrigation in mimicking the conservation of historical riparian processes. Findings suggest that inefficient grass-hay irrigation mirrored the timing of natural hydrology, concentrating [~]93% of flooded grasslands in historical riparian ecosystems, affirming that at large scales, this ranching practice, in part, mimics floodplain processes sustaining wetlands and groundwater recharge. Despite representing only 2.5% of irrigated lands, grass-hay operations supported a majority (58%)of temporary wetlands, a rare and declining habitat for wildlife in the Intermountain West. Tolerance for colder temperatures confined grass-hay production to upper watershed reaches where higher value crops are constrained by growing degree days. This novel understanding of grass-hay agroecology highlights the vital role of working ranches in the resilience and stewardship of riparian systems.

ecology↗