Kawam, B. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Inferring the causes of animal social network structure from time-series data

Behavioural ecologists aim to understand the causes of animal social structure. Connecting theoretical models of social structure with empirical observations remains, however, a for-midable challenge. While most of the current statistical methods for animal social network analysis rely on data that are aggregated over time and summarised as one behavioural dimension (e.g., an adjacency-matrix), common behavioural sampling techniques (e.g., focal-animal sampling) produce data in continuous time, and involve different behaviours. Furthermore, empiricists in the field are generally interested in causal inference, but lack a framework to rigorously analyse focal-animal sampling data in light of transparent causal assumptions. As a consequence, common methods are often inappropriate, and can lead to wrong biological conclusions. Here, we introduce a causal Bayesian modelling framework to empirically study the causes of social network structure from focal-animal sampling data. We start by outlining a generative model that encodes how biological and measurement processes jointly produce social network data in continuous time; namely, as a temporal sequence of dyadic behavioural states (e.g., no body contact, social resting, grooming). Building upon the generative model, we develop a statistical model: a multilevel, multiplex Bayesian model that takes raw focal observations as input, and produces a posterior probability distribution for the generative parameters as output. After validating the statistical models performance with sparse data-- common in real-world settings--we illustrate its application with an empirical data set collected in wild Assamese macaques. We notably showcase how researchers can compute probabilistic estimates for well-defined causal hypotheses about the drivers of social structure. With this work, we not only contribute novel theoretical and statistical tools to the field, but also illustrate a workflow that allows researchers to iteratively translate their domain expertise into a formal analytical strategy--bridging theoretical and empirical research in behavioural ecology.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2024

A causal framework for the drivers of animal social network structure

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWA major goal of behavioural ecology is to explain how phenotypic and ecological factors shape the networks of social relationships that animals form with one another. This inferential task is notoriously challenging. The social networks of interest are generally not observed, but must be approximated from behavioural samples. Moreover, these data are highly dependent: the observed network edges correlate with one another, due to biological and sampling processes. Failing to account for the resulting uncertainty and biases can lead to dysfunctional statistical procedures, and thus to incorrect results. Here, we argue that these problems should be understood--and addressed--as problems of causal inference. For this purpose, we introduce a Bayesian causal modelling framework that explicitly defines the links between the target interaction network, its causes, and the data. We illustrate the mechanics of our framework with simulation studies and an empirical example. First, we encode causal effects of individual-, dyad-, and group-level features on social interactions using Directed Acyclic Graphs and Structural Causal Models. These quantities are the objects of inquiry, our estimands. Second, we develop estimators for these effects--namely, Bayesian multilevel extensions of the Social Relations Model. Third, we recover the structural parameters of interest, map statistical estimates to the underlying causal structures, and compute causal estimates from the joint posterior distribution. Throughout the manuscript, we develop models layer by layer, thereby illustrating an iterative workflow for causal inference in social networks. We conclude by summarising this workflow as a set of seven steps, and provide practical recommendations.

animal behavior and cognition↗