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Kaiser-Bunbury, C. N.

Publications and source records attributed to Kaiser-Bunbury, C. N..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Climate-driven specialisation in plant-pollinator networks peaks outside the tropics

Pollination is a key ecological process sustaining biodiversity and food security, yet global patterns of plant-pollinator specialisation have remained unresolved. Using the largest global dataset of quantitative networks (>3,400 networks, >110,000 interactions), we show that the latitudinal specialisation gradient (LSG) exists, but it is non-linear, hemispherically asymmetric, and strongly taxon-dependent. Network-level and pollinator specialisation were lowest in the tropics and peaked at northern mid-latitudes, whereas plants tended to become more specialised toward higher latitudes. Climate consistently outperformed latitude, species richness, and environmental productivity as a predictor of these patterns. Specialisation declined with increasing temperature, rose with moderate rainfall before declining at the wettest sites, and increased with temperature seasonality, but plants and pollinators responded differently to these drivers. Functional groups diverged strongly: ectothermic insects were most specialised in cooler, seasonal climates, while birds showed weaker links to latitude but reduced specialisation in wetter regions. These findings demonstrate that climate, rather than latitude or species richness, structures global variation in specialisation. Because warmer and less seasonal climates promote generalisation, climate change is likely to disrupt the most specialised pollination systems, unevenly across taxa and regions, with important consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem stability.

ecology↗

Rapid monitoring for ecological persistence

Effective conservation of ecological communities requires accurate and up-to-date information about whether species are persisting or declining to extinction. The persistence of ecological communities is largely supported by its structured architecture of species interactions, known as an ecological network. While the persistence of the network supporting the whole community is the most relevant scale for conservation, in practice, we can only monitor small subsets of these networks due to logistical sampling constraints. There is therefore an urgent need to establish links between the small snapshots of data conservationists are able to collect, and the big picture conclusions about ecosystem health demanded by policy makers, scientists and societies. Here we show that the persistence of small subnetworks in isolation -- that is, their persistence when considered separately from the larger network of which they are a part -- is a reliable probabilistic indicator of the persistence of the network as a whole. Our results are general across both antagonistic and mutualistic interaction networks. Empirically, we show that our theoretical predictions are supported by data on invaded networks in restored and unrestored areas, even in the presence of environmental variability. Our work suggests that coordinated action to aggregate information from incomplete sampling can provide a means to rapidly assess the persistence of entire ecological networks and the expected success of restoration strategies. This could significantly improve our ability to monitor progress towards achieving policy targets, such as those enshrined in the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

ecology↗