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Julian, T. R.

Publications and source records attributed to Julian, T. R..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Post-sampling degradation of viral RNA in wastewater impacts the quality of PCR-based concentration estimates

Successful wastewater-based infectious disease surveillance programs depend on regular, reliable molecular detection of nucleic acids in municipal wastewater systems. This process is challenged by the gradual degradation of the viral content of the wastewater over time. Testing protocols are complex and often cannot be performed on site, resulting in delays between collection and testing. The evidence of continued degradation of viral RNA when stored at low temperatures is currently limited to a small number of studies with mixed results. Taking advantage of variable delays between sample collection and processing, we used a Bayesian temporal model and data from two winter periods of a national surveillance program in Switzerland to determine the rate at which the measured viral concentrations of four respiratory viruses declined as a result of RNA degradation between sample collection and processing. We found evidence of substantial degradation between the collection and processing of samples with daily rates of up to -0.28 (-0.38 - -0.19 95% CrI). We established that reduction in viral concentrations resulting from post-sampling degradation was responsible for a number of measurements falling below quantifiable limits. For one treatment plant, we estimate that 39 measurements fell below the limit of detection due to RNA degradation over the course of a single season. Measurements are more likely to be lost early in the seasonal epidemic when concentrations are still low. This delays consistent reliable measurement and sets back epidemiological assessments relevant to public health management strategies.

microbiology↗

Lognormal distributions capture site-specific variability in enteric virus concentrations in wastewater

As more data on virus concentrations in influent water from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) becomes available, establishing best practices for virus measurements, monitoring, and statistical modelling can improve the understanding of virus concentration distributions in wastewater. To support this, we assessed the temporal variability of norovirus, adenovirus, enterovirus, and rotavirus concentrations in influent water across multiple WWTPs in Switzerland, the USA, and Japan. Our findings demonstrate that the lognormal distribution accurately predicts temporal variations in concentrations for all viruses at all sites, outperforming the gamma and Weibull distributions that do not capture high variability. However, important differences in variability and uncertainty were observed across systems, underscoring the need for site-specific assessments. Using lognormal parameters, we identified optimal monitoring frequencies to balance cost-effectiveness and precision. For most sites, weekly monitoring would be sufficient to estimate the annual average concentration of enteric viruses within a 95% confidence interval of 0.5-log10. We examined the mechanistic basis of the lognormal distribution, highlighting processes that drive its prevalence and shape the behavior of its upper tail. By integrating these insights, this study provides a novel statistical foundation for optimizing virus monitoring frameworks and informing public health interventions targeting wastewater systems.

microbiology↗