Biology subjects

Jucker, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Jucker, T..

16 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Laser scanning identifies large trees as a major source of uncertainty in mangrove carbon accounting

BackgroundMangrove forests are crucial ecosystems which support biodiversity, protect coastlines and store vast amounts of carbon. Mangrove conservation and protection rely on accurate carbon accounting to unlock investment. However, the allometric equations underpinning these carbon estimates remain poorly constrained, particularly for the large trees. MethodsWe used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to estimate the biomass of 187 mangrove stems across Suriname, Panama, Colombia and Jamaica, including 84 stems >20 cm DBH. TLS-derived biomass estimates were used to evaluate local, regional and pantropical allometric equations. ResultsMost diameter-based allometric equations underestimated biomass by 8-65%. Equations additionally incorporating tree height performed better, but still underestimated biomass by 12-16% on average. Applying alternative allometries to a representative mangrove inventory from Panama produced biomass estimates ranging from 80 to 200 Mg ha-{superscript 1}, demonstrating that allometric uncertainty alone can generate more than a two-fold difference in estimated carbon stocks. ConclusionsCurrent allometric equations systematically underestimate the biomass of large mangrove trees and are therefore likely to underestimate mangrove carbon stocks. TLS provides a practical, non-destructive approach for expanding biomass datasets and improving allometric equations. Reducing allometric uncertainty should be a priority for strengthening blue carbon accounting and mangrove conservation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Liana cutting accelerates tropical forest recovery at a fraction of the cost of tree planting

We urgently need to restore degraded tropical forests to mitigate the climate and biodiversity crises, but how to do so rapidly and cost-effectively remains an open question. Here we provide a long-term, landscape-scale assessment of the effectiveness of enrichment tree planting and liana cutting, the two most common restoration interventions used across many tropical regions. Leveraging one of the worlds largest and longest running forest restoration experiments, we used repeat airborne laser scanning to track the 3D structural recovery of 500 ha of selectively logged rainforest in Borneo. Over an 18-year period, enrichment planting increased mean canopy height by 1.6 m relative to unplanted controls. Remarkably, liana cutting increased canopy height more than four times faster (3.7 m over just 9 years). This recovery was jointly driven by accelerated canopy gap closure, enhanced tree growth, and a 50% reduction in tree mortality. Given that liana cutting is around 10 times cheaper to implement than enrichment planting, our results suggest it provides a cost-effective, scalable solution to accelerate the structural recovery of logged tropical forests.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Limited predictability of tree-level responses to drought across European forests

Climate change is increasing the frequency, duration and severity of extreme events such as heatwaves and droughts, pushing trees near or beyond their ecophysiological limits. Understanding what governs variability in how trees respond to drought - such as intrinsic factors related to their size, age, and species, or extrinsic factors shaped by their local competitive environment - is critical for predicting long-term forest resilience to climate change and developing climate-smart forest management strategies. Here, we use tree ring data from 2909 trees belonging to sixteen species distributed across Europes major forest types to comprehensively assess what factors contribute most to a trees ability to withstand and recover from extreme drought events. We found that trees with larger living crowns generally exhibited higher post-drought growth recovery and resilience, while trees exposed to lower drought intensities showed greater resistance. Conversely, neither the density nor the diversity of a trees local competitive neighbourhood had any clear influence on its response to drought. More generally, we found that our ability to predict whether a tree would exhibit resilience to drought was low (R2 = 13-21) and was largely driven by species-specific responses and topographic variation across forest types, rather than by tree- and stand-level attributes. These findings highlight that drought responses are inherently complex and strongly influenced by forest type and by heterogeneous responses among species. Integrating tree-ring, physiological, and remote-sensing data with mechanistic models represents a promising avenue for improving forecasts of future forest resilience to climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Persistent declines in forest-dependent birds following active restoration of logged tropical forest in Borneo

O_LITropical forest restoration is critical for mitigating biodiversity loss and climate change, including in forests impacted by selective logging. Active restoration through liana cutting and enrichment tree planting can substantially accelerate carbon recovery, potentially reducing economic pressures to convert logged forests. But its long-term biodiversity impacts remain largely unknown. C_LIO_LIUsing over two decades of bird survey data from Borneos largest logged-forest restoration project, we quantified occupancy patterns for 176 species across primary, naturally regenerating, and actively restored logged forests spanning a 30+ year post-logging chronosequence. C_LIO_LIForest-dependent, threatened and near-threatened species generally declined through time in actively restored areas, whereas many species in naturally regenerating forests progressively recovered toward primary forest levels. Between 17-40% of 66 threatened or near-threatened species had consistently lower occupancies in actively restored than in naturally regenerating forest. Across species of global conservation concern, median occupancies in restored areas remained [~]22% below primary forest even 50 years after harvests, compared with only [~]6% lower under natural regeneration. C_LIO_LIArboreal insectivores, frugivores, and predatory species appeared most negatively affected by active restoration, with 27-49% of arboreal gleaning insectivores (of 62), 13-30% of arboreal frugivores (of 40), and one-third of predatory species (of 15) showing higher occupancy in naturally regenerating forests. Sallying insectivores also showed a possible but uncertain response, whereas ground-associated frugivores and insectivores were largely unaffected by restoration treatment. C_LIO_LIConcerningly, even 50 years post-logging, up to 52% of 50 high forest-dependency species retained distinct occupancies in actively restored compared with primary forest, suggesting persistent negative impacts of vine-cutting and/or tree planting activities on avian populations. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications. Our findings indicate that despite substantial carbon benefits, active restoration within selectively logged forests may impede the recovery of forest-dependent biodiversity. This challenges the common assumption embedded within nature-based climate solutions that carbon and biodiversity outcomes will necessarily align. Nonetheless, despite the persistent declines in bird communities, actively restored forests continued to provide key habitat for many species. Active interventions may thus still contribute to broader biodiversity conservation objectives if they protect logged areas from conversion, potentially via carbon payments. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

No detrimental long-term impacts of coring on tree growth ormortality across European forests

O_LITree cores are widely used across a broad range of disciplines in the environmental sciences, most notably as a tool to measure tree growth, estimate tree age, characterise wood anatomy and reconstruct past climate. However, because extracting tree cores is an invasive procedure, concerns about their use are often raised due to perceived risks to trees. C_LIO_LIHere we comprehensively test the long-term impacts of tree coring on 16 European tree species using a dataset spanning a broad range of forest types across the continent. Over the course of a decade, we tracked the growth and survival of 3201 trees cored in 2012 (including those cored once and twice) and used hierarchical Bayesian models to compare them with those of a cohort of 7262 neighbouring trees that were never cored. C_LIO_LIWe found no evidence that coring had a detrimental impact on tree growth, irrespective of size, species, forest type or the number of times a tree was cored. However, we did observe a small positive stem increment response, which we hypothesise is most likely the result of localised vertical scarring from the coring wound. C_LIO_LIImpacts of tree coring on mortality were instead more uncertain, with mortality rates of cored trees slightly elevated relative to ones that were not cored, but overlapping widely in their credible intervals. This underscores the challenge of attributing drivers of rare and stochastic processes such as tree mortality, even with relatively large datasets. C_LIO_LIOur study generally supports the use of tree coring as a low-impact method for characterising the growth, age and function of a wide range of tree species, but highlights that there are circumstances in which it may cause harm. Future work should explore these further by considering the broader impacts of coring on tree health. Additionally, tree cores should always be collected well above or below the point of measurement of tree stem diameters to avoid biasing long-term forest census datasets. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Beyond species means - the intraspecific contribution to global wood density variation

Wood density is central for estimating vegetation carbon storage and a plant functional trait of great ecological and evolutionary importance. However, the global extent of wood density variation is unclear, especially at the intraspecific level. We assembled the most comprehensive wood density collection to date (GWDD v.2), including 109,626 records from 16,829 plant species across woody life forms and biomes. Using the GWDD v.2, we explored the sources of variation in wood density within individuals, within species, and across environmental gradients. Intraspecific variation accounted for up to 15% of overall wood density variation (sd = 0.068 g cm-3). Sapwood densities varied 50% less than heartwood densities, and branchwood densities varied 30% less than trunkwood densities. Individuals in extreme environments (dry, hot, acidic soils) had higher wood density than conspecifics elsewhere (+0.02 g cm-3, [~]4% of the mean). Intraspecific environmental effects strongly tracked interspecific patterns (r = 0.83) but were only 20-30% as large and varied considerably among taxa. Individual plant wood density was difficult to predict (RMSE > 0.08 g cm-3; single-measurement R2 = 0.59). We recommend (i) systematic within-species sampling for local applications, and (ii) expanded taxonomic coverage combined with integrative models for robust estimates across ecological scales.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

A global map of wood density

Wood density influences how quickly woody plants grow, how long they live and how much carbon they store, yet its global variation remains poorly mapped. Here we combined 109,626 wood density measurements from 16,829 species with 300,949 vegetation plots to produce a km-scale map of community-weighted wood density for every woody biome. Our model led to a prediction accuracy 32-51 % higher than previous global products, and a 1.8-3.7-fold wider wood density range (0.28-1.00 g cm-3; global mean: 0.57 g cm-3) than previously assumed. Spatial cross-validation showed low bias ({+/-}2.5 % of the mean), and uncertainties decreased from 20% in poorly sampled drylands and boreal regions to 5% in data-rich temperate forests. Mean annual temperature was the best predictor of community-weighted mean wood density, increasing by 0.01 g cm-3 for every 1{degrees}C change. We deliver a low-bias, high-resolution wood density layer for Earth system models, together with spatially explicit error maps. This study represents a major step forward for carbon accounting and trait-based forecasts of vegetation change.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Gender gap between elite runners continues to shrink in the 21st century

In 1992 a controversial analysis of historical trends in world record performances raised the question of whether women would one day run faster than men across a whole range of athletic disciplines. Since then, however, the consensus has been that the gap between male and female runners stabilised towards the end of the 20th century and has since remained unchanged. Here I analyse running performances by elite athletes since 2001 to show that contrary to this widely held belief, women have in fact continued to close the gap on men across all distances from 60 m to the marathon. Women made the biggest gains relative to men in middle and long-distance running disciplines, and this occurred despite the fact that men too have continued to improve significantly in these events over the past 25 years. The jury is still out there as to whether women will one day run faster than men, but what does appear more certain is that women will continue to push the boundaries of running performance over the coming decades.

physiology↗

bioRxiv2025

LiDAR and hyperspectral-based structured population models show future forest fire frequency may compromise forest resilience

AbstractForest disturbances are accelerating biodiversity loss and altering tree productivity worldwide. Post-disturbance recovery time is critical for identifying vulnerable areas and targeting conservation but varies with environmental conditions. Monitoring recovery at scale requires tracking tree dynamics, yet traditional ground-based approaches are resource-intensive. We present a pipeline to parameterise integral projection models (IPMs) using LiDAR and hyperspectral data to assess post-fire recovery across large, forested areas. Focusing on the fire-adapted Picea mariana, we model passage times to reproductive heights and life expectancy under different fire regimes as indicators of recovery. To do this, we combined hyperspectral-derived species maps and LiDAR-based crown heights to track individual tree survival and growth at the Caribou-Poker Creek Research Watershed (BONA) from 2017-2023. We incorporated fire history, aspect, slope, elevation, and surrounding canopy height into our models and found partial support for their expected effects on survival and growth. Once accounting for topography and competition, we estimated passage times to reproductive maturity (11-22 years). Life expectancy in the absence of fire is shortest on North-facing slopes with recent fire (579 years). Sensitivity analyses highlight fire history and aspect as key modulators of population resilience, with elevation exerting strong influence on life expectancy across all conditions. Our results demonstrate that remotely sensed IPMs can effectively quantify forest recovery at scale, revealing that in some contexts, stands of P. mariana may not recover between fire disturbances. We discuss the implications of these findings for resilience-based forest management and highlight both the challenges and opportunities of using LiDAR and hyperspectral data to build demographic models for forecasting forest dynamics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Using revisitation data for predicting changes in ecosystem functioning across protected and non-protected coastal dunes

Protected areas are generally designed to conserve biodiversity. However, how well they also contribute to maintaining ecosystem functions that plant diversity supports has rarely been explicitly tested, often due to the lack of historical ecosystem function data. Here, we used a trait-based approach to reconstruct past ecosystem functioning and examine its change over the last 15 years in protected and unprotected coastal dune ecosystems, checking where functions remain stable over time. First, we resurveyed vegetation in quasi-permanent plots and measured in the present several ecosystem functions related to biomass production, carbon, water, nutrient cycling, erosion control, and invasion resistance across six coastal dune sites in Central Italy. Second, using these data, we quantified Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function (BEF) relationships and employed them to hindcast past ecosystem functions based on historical vegetation surveys. Finally, as a case study, we applied this method to assess temporal changes in ecosystem functioning under three protection regimes: national protected areas (i.e. strict protection), Natura 2000 sites (loose protection), and non-protected areas. Biomass production, carbon, and water regulation increased over time in non-protected areas, likely due to an expansion of ruderal and non-native species, that are usually more productive. Within Natura 2000 sites, communities showed a decrease in erosion control and invasion resistance, due to the loss of important dune-building species and the spread of non-natives. Only within national protected areas, ecosystem functions did not undergo significant temporal changes, and invasion resistance even increased. Our results suggest that ecosystem functioning remained stable over time only in areas under strict protection. More broadly, our study demonstrates the potential for using revisitation data in combination with locally estimated BEF relationships to hindcast past ecosystem functioning, providing a valuable tool for monitoring long-term functional changes in response to conservation measures.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Modelling forest dynamics using integral projection models (IPMs) and repeat LiDAR

O_LIEstimating the life histories and population dynamics of trees is important for predicting how forests respond to climate change and disturbances. To do so, ecologist often use stage-structured population models, which explicitly account for individual heterogeneity. However, the data needed to parameterise these models is typically constrained by time- and labour-intensive field methods. C_LIO_LIDespite growing access to remote sensing imagery that could potentially satiate these data-hungry population models, these data remain underutilised in population ecology. Here, we demonstrate a pipeline that integrates repeat-LiDAR data with a type of structured demographic model (Integral Projection Model, IPM) to examine forest-wide dynamics in response to environmental drivers. Using Australias Great Western Woodlands as a case study, we model the survival and growth of [~]40,000 eucalypt trees over a decade to estimate their life expectancy and characterise multiple stages of growth (height growth and crown expansion). C_LIO_LIOur results indicate distinct responses of small trees (where vital rates are predicted by height) and large trees (which invested predominantly in expanding crown area) to proxies for competition and soil moisture (local canopy density and topographic wetness index, respectively). Parameterising structured population models using LiDAR data therefore offers a step-change in perspective towards more ecologically meaningful forest dynamics. C_LIO_LITo broaden the application of this pipeline, we highlight three priorities: (1) Application to more complex systems such as mixed species stands and dense, multilayered canopies); (2) Incorporating complete life histories, including reproduction and early life stages; and (3) Using in long-term or comparative studies through improved availability of high-quality, comparable, repeat-LiDAR surveys. By combining remote sensing data with detailed insights from field- based studies, this pipeline represents a scalable framework for guiding forest management and conservation decisions. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Competition, precipitation and temperature shape deviations from scaling laws in the crown allometries of miombo woodlands

Scaling relationships between different axes of tree size, such as height, crown radius, crown depth and stem diameter, play a direct role in shaping forest structure and function. Theoretical models such as metabolic scaling theory postulate that they are optimized for biomechanical stability and hydraulic sap distribution. However, empirical data often show that such models are only good enough as first order approximations because they do not account for differences in species traits and environmental conditions where trees grow. Nevertheless, the vast majority of research has focused on temperate systems or tropical rainforests, so we continue to lack a full understanding of what factors shape allometries of trees in tropical dry forests. Here, we compile data on tree height, diameter, crown radius and depth from miombo woodlands across Zambia and use Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to explore how allometric scaling relationships are shaped by climate and competition. Similar to previous studies, our results revealed that allometric scaling relationships deviate substantially from theoretical expectations. We found that competition, precipitation and temperature all affect crown allometric scaling relationships, with trees becoming more slender where neighbourhood competition was greater, while crowns were wider and deeper in warmer and wetter climates. Our study highlights how the structure and function of miombo woodlands is shaped by more than just water availability. Moreover, by developing improved crown allometric models for miombo woodlands, we provide new tools to aid the estimation of aboveground biomass and calibration of remote sensing products in these critically important dry forest ecosystems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

The global spectrum of tree crown architecture

Trees can differ enormously in their crown architectural traits, such as the scaling relationships that link their height and crown size to their stem diameter. Yet despite the importance of crown architecture in shaping the structure and function of woody ecosystems, we lack a complete picture of what drives this incredible diversity in crown shapes. Using data from >500,000 globally distributed trees, we explored how climate, disturbance, competition, functional traits, and evolutionary history constrain the height, crown size and shape of the worlds tree species. We found that variation in height scaling relationships was primarily controlled by water availability and light competition. Conversely, crown width was predominantly shaped by exposure to wind and fire, while also covarying with other functional traits related to mechanical stability and photosynthesis. Additionally, several plant lineages had crown architectures that defy their environments, such as the exceedingly slender dipterocarps of Southeast Asia, or the extremely wide crowns of legumes in African savannas. Our study charts the global spectrum of tree crown architectural types. It provides a roadmap for integrating crown architecture with vegetation models and remote sensing observations, so that we may better understand the processes that shape the 3D structure of woody ecosystems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Tracking tree demography and forest dynamics at scale using remote sensing

O_LICapturing how tree growth and survival vary through space and time is critical to understanding the structure and dynamics of tree-dominated ecosystems. However, characterising demographic processes at scale is inherently challenging, as trees are slow-growing, long-lived, and cover vast expanses of land. C_LIO_LIWe used repeat airborne laser scanning data acquired over 25 km2 of semi-arid, old-growth temperate woodland in Western Australia to track the height growth, crown expansion and mortality of 42,810 individual trees over nine years. C_LIO_LIWe found that demographic rates are constrained by a combination of tree size, competition and topography. After initially investing in height growth, trees progressively shifted to crown expansion as they grew larger, while mortality risk decreased considerably with size. Across the landscape, both tree growth and survival increased with topographic wetness, resulting in vegetation patterns that are strongly spatially structured. Moreover, biomass gains from woody growth generally outpaced losses from mortality, suggesting these old-growth woodlands remain a net carbon sink in the absence of wildfires. C_LIO_LIOur study sheds new light on the processes that shape the dynamics and spatial structure of semi-arid woody ecosystems and provides a roadmap for using emerging remote sensing technologies to track tree demography at scale. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Robust characterization of forest structure from airborne laser scanning - a systematic assessment and sample workflow for ecologists

O_LIForests display tremendous structural diversity, shaping carbon cycling, microclimates, and terrestrial habitats. One of the most common tools for forest structure assessments are canopy height models (CHMs): maps of canopy height obtained at high resolution and large scale from airborne laser scanning (ALS). CHMs can be computed in many ways, but little is known about the robustness of different CHM algorithms and how they affect ecological analyses. C_LIO_LIHere, we used high-quality ALS data from nine sites in Australia, ranging from semi-arid shrublands to 90-m tall Mountain Ash canopies, to comprehensively assess CHM algorithms. This included testing their sensitivity to point cloud degradation and quantifying the propagation of errors to derived metrics of canopy structure. C_LIO_LIWe found that CHM algorithms varied widely both in their height predictions (differences up to 10 m, or 60% of canopy height) and in their sensitivity to point cloud characteristics (biases of up to [~]5 m or 40% of canopy height). Impacts of point cloud properties on CHM-derived metrics varied, from robust inference for height percentiles, to considerable errors in aboveground biomass estimates ([~]50 Mg ha-1, or 10% of total), and high volatility in metrics that quantify spatial associations in canopies (e.g., gaps or spatial autocorrelation). In some cases, biases exceeded ecological variation across sites by a factor of 2. However, we also found that two CHM algorithms - a variation on a "spikefree" algorithm that adapts to local pulse densities and a simple Delaunay triangulation of first returns - allowed for robust canopy characterization and should thus create a secure foundation for ecological comparisons in space and time. C_LIO_LICanopy height models are a widely used tool in ecology, but their derivation is not trivial. Our study provides a best-practice guideline and a sample workflow to create robust CHMs and minimize biases and uncertainty in downstream analyses. In doing so we pave the way for global-scale comparisons of forest structural complexity from airborne laser scanning. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Forest structure and degradation drive canopy gap sizes across the Brazilian Amazon

Canopy gaps are openings in the forest canopy resulting from branch fall and tree mortality events. Light reaches the lower layers of the canopy through these gaps, enabling understory trees to grow and maintaining the high heterogeneity and biodiversity of tropical forests. The size-frequency distribution of canopy gaps follows a power-law distribution, and the slope of this power-law () is a key indicator of forest structure and dynamics. We detected canopy gaps using a unique LiDAR data set consisting of 650 transects randomly distributed across the Brazilian Amazon Forest providing an unprecedented perspective on forest structural variation over 2500 km2 of forest. We then investigated how varied with forest structure, elevation, soil fertility, water deficit, wind gust speed and lightning intensity. We found that human modified forests had more large gaps than intact forests. Within the intact forests we observed a large-scale Northwest to Southeast pattern in (more large gaps in the Southeast), which aligns with recent work on tree mortality rates. The two most important variables in predicting were median canopy height and maximum modeled height, which had opposite effects on the number of large gaps. Forests with higher median canopy height contain fewer large gaps but the presence of very tall trees was associated with more large gaps. Environmental variables were of secondary importance in our model, with larger gaps occurring in drier forests with high soil fertility, wind speed, and lightning intensity. The distribution of large gaps in the forest canopy varies substantially over the Brazilian Amazon as a result of canopy structure and mortality rates. We mapped this variation and found more large gaps in human modified forests, forests on fertile soils and those exposed to higher wind, lightning and drought stress. Increasing extreme weather events due to climate change may therefore increase the number of large gaps in currently intact forests, causing them to resemble human modified forests.

ecology↗