Biology subjects

Joy, J. B.

Publications and source records attributed to Joy, J. B..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Fundamental identifiability limits in molecular epidemiology

Viral phylogenies provide crucial information on the spread of infectious diseases, and many studies fit mathematical models to phylogenetic data to estimate epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction ratio (Re) over time. Such phylodynamic inferences often complement or even substitute for conventional surveillance data, particularly when sampling is poor or delayed. It remains generally unknown, however, how robust phylodynamic epidemiological inferences are, especially when there is uncertainty regarding pathogen prevalence and sampling intensity. Here we use recently developed mathematical techniques to fully characterize the information that can possibly be extracted from serially collected viral phylogenetic data, in the context of the commonly used birth-death-sampling model. We show that for any candidate epidemiological scenario, there exist a myriad of alternative, markedly different and yet plausible "congruent" scenarios that cannot be distinguished using phylogenetic data alone, no matter how large the dataset. In the absence of strong constraints or rate priors across the entire study period, neither maximum-likelihood fitting nor Bayesian inference can reliably reconstruct the true epidemiological dynamics from phylogenetic data alone; rather, estimators can only converge to the "congruence class" of the true dynamics. We propose concrete and feasible strategies for making more robust epidemiological inferences from viral phylogenetic data.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

A General Birth-Death-Sampling Model for Epidemiology and Macroevolution

Birth-death stochastic processes are the foundation of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth-death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is non-trivial. Here we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This framework centers around a technique for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth-death(-sampling) models that will allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. We then use this frame-work to derive general model likelihoods for both the "single-type" case in which all lineages diversify according to the same process and the "multi-type" case, where there is variation in the process among lineages. By re-deriving existing single-type birth-death sampling models we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing in vivo mutation frequencies and creating a high-resolution genome-wide map of fitness costs of Hepatitis C virus

Like many viruses, Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) has a high nutation rate, which helps the virus adapt quickly, but mutations come with fitness costs. Fitness costs can be studied by different approaches, such as experimental or frequency-based approaches. The frequency-based approach is particularly useful to estimate in vivo fitness costs, but this approach works best with deep sequencing data from many hosts, are. In this study, we applied the frequency-based approach to a large dataset of 195 patients and estimated the fitness costs of mutations at 7957 sites along the HCV genome. We used beta regression and random forest models to better understand how different factors influenced fitness costs. Our results revealed that costs of nonsynonymous mutations were three times higher than those of synonymous mutations, and mutations at nucleotides A or T had higher costs than those at C or G. Genome location had a modest effect, with lower costs for mutations in HVR1 and higher costs for mutations in Core and NS5B. Resistance mutations were, on average, costlier than other mutations. Our results show that in vivo fitness costs of mutations can be virus specific, reinforcing the utility of constructing in vivo fitness cost maps of viral genomes. Author SummaryUnderstanding how viruses evolve within patients is important for combatting viral diseases, yet studying viruses within patients is difficult. Laboratory experiments are often used to understand the evolution of viruses, in place of assessing the evolution in natural populations (patients), but the dynamics will be different. In this study, we aimed to understand the within-patient evolution of Hepatitis C virus, which is an RNA virus that replicates and mutates extremely quickly, by taking advantage of high-throughput next generation sequencing. Here, we describe the evolutionary patterns of Hepatitis C virus from 195 patients: We analyzed mutation frequencies and estimated how costly each mutation was. We also assessed what factors made a mutation more costly, including the costs associated with drug resistance mutations. We were able to create a genome-wide fitness map of within-patient mutations in Hepatitis C virus which proves that, with technological advances, we can deepen our understanding of within-patient viral evolution, which can contribute to develop better treatments and vaccines.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

genetics↗