Iwaki, H. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

Parkinson disease age of onset GWAS: defining heritability, genetic loci and a-synuclein mechanisms

Increasing evidence supports an extensive and complex genetic contribution to Parkinsons disease (PD). Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have shed light on the genetic basis of risk for this disease. However, the genetic determinants of PD age of onset are largely unknown. Here we performed an age of onset GWAS based on 28,568 PD cases. We estimated that the heritability of PD age of onset due to common genetic variation was ~0.11, lower than the overall heritability of risk for PD (~0.27) likely in part because of the subjective nature of this measure. We found two genome-wide significant association signals, one at SNCA and the other a protein-coding variant in TMEM175, both of which are known PD risk loci and a Bonferroni corrected significant effect at other known PD risk loci, INPP5F/BAG3, FAM47E/SCARB2, and MCCC1. In addition, we identified that GBA coding variant carriers had an earlier age of onset compared to non-carriers. Notably, SNCA, TMEM175, SCARB2, BAG3 and GBA have all been shown to either directly influence alpha-synuclein aggregation or are implicated in alpha-synuclein aggregation pathways. Remarkably, other well-established PD risk loci such as GCH1, MAPT and RAB7L1/NUCKS1 (PARK16) did not show a significant effect on age of onset of PD. While for some loci, this may be a measure of power, this is clearly not the case for the MAPT locus; thus genetic variability at this locus influences whether but not when an individual develops disease. We believe this is an important mechanistic and therapeutic distinction. Furthermore, these data support a model in which alpha-synuclein and lysosomal mechanisms impact not only PD risk but also age of disease onset and highlights that therapies that target alpha-synuclein aggregation are more likely to be disease-modifying than therapies targeting other pathways.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genetic variability and potential effects on clinical trial outcomes: perspectives in Parkinson’s disease

BackgroundImproper randomization in clinical trials can result in the failure of the trial to meet its primary end-point. The last [~]10 years have revealed that common and rare genetic variants are an important disease factor and sometimes account for a substantial portion of disease risk variance. However, the burden of common genetic risk variants is not often considered in the randomization of clinical trials and can therefore lead to additional unwanted variance between trial arms. We simulated clinical trials to estimate false negative and false positive rates and investigated differences in single variants and mean genetic risk scores (GRS) between trial arms to investigate the potential effect of genetic variance on clinical trial outcomes at different sample sizes.\n\nMethodsSingle variant and genetic risk score analyses were conducted in a clinical trial simulation environment using data from 5851 Parkinsons Disease patients as well as two simulated virtual cohorts based on public data. The virtual cohorts included a GBA variant cohort and a two variant interaction cohort. Data was resampled at different sizes (n = 200-5000 for the Parkinsons Disease cohort) and (n = 50-800 and n = 50-2000 for virtual cohorts) for 1000 iterations and randomly assigned to the two arms of a trial. False negative and false positive rates were estimated using simulated clinical trials, and percent difference in genetic risk score and allele frequency was calculated to quantify disparity between arms.\n\nFindingsSignificant genetic differences between the two arms of a trial are found at all sample sizes. Approximately 90% of the iterations had at least one statistically significant difference in individual risk SNPs between each trial arm. Approximately 10% of iterations had a statistically significant difference between trial arms in polygenic risk score mean or variance. For significant iterations at sample size 200, the average percent difference for mean GRS between trial arms was 130.87%, decreasing to 29.87% as sample size reached 5000. In the GBA only simulations we see an average 18.86% difference in GRS scores between trial arms at n = 50, decreasing to 3.09% as sample size reaches 2000. Balancing patients by genotype reduced mean percent difference in GRS between arms to 36.71% for the main cohort and 2.00% for the GBA cohort at n = 200. When adding a drug effect to the simulations, we found that unbalanced genetics with an effect on the chosen measurable clinical outcome can result in high false negative rates among trials, especially at small sample sizes. At a sample size of n = 50 and a targeted drug effect of -0.5 points in UPDRS per year, we discovered 33.9% of trials resulted in false negatives.\n\nInterpretationsOur data support the hypothesis that within genetically unmatched clinical trials, particularly those below 1000 participants, heterogeneity could confound true therapeutic effects as expected. This is particularly important in the changing environment of drug approvals. Clinical trials should undergo pre-trial genetic adjustment or, at the minimum, post-trial adjustment and analysis for failed trials. Clinical trial arms should be balanced on genetic risk variants, as well as cumulative variant distributions represented by GRS, in order to ensure the maximum reduction in trial arm disparities. The reduction in variance after balancing allows smaller sample sizes to be utilized without risking the large disparities between trial arms witnessed in typical randomized trials. As the cost of genotyping will likely be far less than greatly increasing sample size, genetically balancing trial arms can lead to more cost-effective clinical trials as well as better outcomes.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Parkinson’s disease genetics: identifying novel risk loci, providing causal insights and improving estimates of heritable risk

We performed the largest genome-wide association study of PD to date, involving the analysis of 7.8M SNPs in 37.7K cases, 18.6K UK Biobank proxy-cases, and 1.4M controls. We identified 90 independent genome-wide significant signals across 78 loci, including 38 independent risk signals in 37 novel loci. These variants explained 26-36% of the heritable risk of PD. Tests of causality within a Mendelian randomization framework identified putatively causal genes for 70 risk signals. Tissue expression enrichment analysis suggested that signatures of PD loci were heavily brain-enriched, consistent with specific neuronal cell types being implicated from single cell expression data. We found significant genetic correlations with brain volumes, smoking status, and educational attainment. In sum, these data provide the most comprehensive understanding of the genetic architecture of PD to date by revealing many additional PD risk loci, providing a biological context for these risk factors, and demonstrating that a considerable genetic component of this disease remains unidentified.

genetics↗