bioRxiv2018
Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal populations and communities requires understanding of feedbacks between direct physiological responses and indirect effects via ecological interactions. Food-dependent body growth and within-species size variation have major effects on dynamics of populations and communities through feedbacks between individual performance and population size structure. Moreover, evidence suggests a link between temperature and population size structure, but we lack an understanding of how this is mediated by species interactions when life history processes are food-dependent. Here, we use a dynamic stage-structured biomass model with food-, size- and temperature-dependent life history processes to assess how temperature affects coexistence, stability and size structure in a tri-trophic food chain. We show that predator biomass densities decline with warming either gradually or in the form of collapses, depending on which consumer life stage they predominantly feed on. Collapses occur when warming destabilizes the community and induces alternative stable states via Allee effects, which emerge when predators promote their own food source through predation. By contrast, warming at low temperatures stabilizes the community as limit cycles turn to fixed point dynamics, unless predators feed only on juveniles. Elevated costs of being large in warmer environments accelerate the decline in predator persistence and mean body size of the community. These results suggest that predator persistence in warmer climates may be lower than previously acknowledged when accounting for size- and food-dependence of life history processes, and that interactions within and between species can mediate the effects of warming on food web stability.\n\nSignificanceClimate warming is altering the dynamics and structure of aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Predicting food web reorganization under rising temperatures requires an understanding of physiological responses and ecological interactions of organisms, both of which depend on body size. We show that size variation within species, food-dependent growth and ecological interactions critically affect how food chains respond to warming. Specifically, warming can stabilize or destabilize food chains and expose predators to increased risk of sudden collapses, resulting in alternative stable food web states. Increasing temperatures can cause abrupt reductions in mean community body size, primarily due to loss of top predators. The potential loss of biodiversity and shifts in ecosystem stability are among the major challenges caused by a warming climate.