Biology subjects

Hudson, P. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Hudson, P. J..

13 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

The spatial and temporal spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in North America: Newton's Cradle hypothesis

The recent emergence of highly pathogenic H5N1--especially clade 2.3.4.4b has led to widespread mortality in poultry and wild birds and has raised significant concerns for the dairy industry and human health. Migratory waterfowl are considered the main source of infection, and we used publicly available surveillance data and bird observation data from continental North America to show clear seasonal signals correlated with waterfowl movement, both on the continental scale and in three of the four flyways. In early 2024, the virus expanded its host range, and we observed a phase transition with the loss of the seasonal signal coupled with a concomitant increase in the proportion of mammalian cases. We also identified a second harmonic, with a regional east-to-west movement with infections spreading between regional flyways, followed by local viral amplification. We likened this to the movement of balls in a Newtons Cradle with an analogy between potential and viral energy. We used bird data to identify bird species associated with viral cases and identified specific waterfowl species and highlighted the importance of predatory and scavenging birds, specifically raptors and gulls, in local amplification. These findings will help to focus surveillance strategies both at local and regional levels.

biophysics↗

bioRxiv2025

Non-destructive monitoring of tissue-specific, irrigation responsive impedance signals in leaves using microneedles probes

A non-destructive methodology for monitoring impedance changes in sorghum leaves was developed and recorded irrigation-dependent responses that differed between leaf tissues. Metal microneedles were used as impedance probes and were shown to cause minimal damage to the plant. The needles were placed on either the abaxial or adaxial side of the leaf midrib using small clamps and re-used hundreds of times with minimal signs of wear. Cross-sectional images verified the precision of microneedle placement near vascular bundles on the abaxial surface and in non-vascular hydrenchyma on the adaxial surface. Impedance measurements with microneedles displayed a significant decrease in resistance compared to planar electrodes due to bypassing the epidermal layer. A tissue-specific impedance response was seen in relation to irrigation where the non-vascular adaxial surface remained largely stable throughout a day of measurement, while impedance increased in the vascular abaxial surface during exposure to light and decreased following watering. Impedance data were also compared with simultaneous gas exchange measurements of photosynthesis and transpiration.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the dietary effects on bat viral shedding and potential consequences for pathogen spillover

Changes in the quality and quantity of food resources can affect individuals health, the way they control infections and consequently the likelihood of onward transmission of pathogens. Dietary shifts have been proposed as one of the factors driving spillovers of zoonotic viruses from bats through a bridging host to humans. While there is a general understanding of the relationship between nutrition and infection in model systems, how diet affects pathogen shedding and the risk of spillover from bats is lacking. We used a data-driven mathematical modeling approach to disentangle the relation between diet, immunity, and viral shedding of Jamaican fruit bats infected with H18N11 and fed different dietary regimes. Model selection indicates that the synergistic interaction between the metabolite citrulline and the cytokine TNF controls viral shedding in a diet-dependent manner. Bats on a sub-optimal fat diet are more successful in terminating shedding than bats on an optimal or sub-optimal sugar diet. However, when bat foraging behavior is considered, bats on the optimal diet show a lower spillover hazard, probably because of a feeding behavior less conducive to transmission. This study provides novel insights into the diet-driven mechanisms of viral shedding and how they can potentially contribute to spillover events.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Investigating tri-trophic interactions using bio-energetic demographic models

A central debate in ecology has been the long running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species that can be surprisingly complex. Mechanistic models offer an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of some of this complexity. We present a bioenergetic mechanistic model of a tri-trophic system where the primary vegetation resource follows a seasonal growth function, and the herbivore and carnivore species are modelled using two integral projection models (IPMs) with body mass as the phenotypic trait. Within each IPM, the demographic functions are structured according to bioenergetic principles, describing how animals acquire and transform resources into body mass, energy reserves and breeding potential. We parameterise this model to reproduce the population dynamics of grass, elk and wolves in northern Yellowstone (USA), and investigate the impact of wolf reintroduction on the system. Our model generated predictions that closely matched the observed population sizes of elk and wolf in Yellowstone prior to and post wolf reintroduction. The introduction of wolves into our basal grass-elk bioenergetic model resulted in a population of 99 wolves, and a reduction in elk numbers by 61% (from 14,948 to 5,823) at equilibrium. In turn, vegetation biomass increased by approximately 25% in the growing season and more than 3-fold in the non-growing season. The addition of wolves to the model caused the elk population to shift from being food-limited to being predator-limited, and had a stabilising effect on elk numbers across different years. Wolf predation also led to a shift in the phenotypic composition of the elk population, via a small increase in elk average body mass. Our model represents a novel approach to the study of predator-prey interactions. Explicitly considering and linking bioenergetics, population demography and body mass phenotypes can provide novel insights into the mechanisms behind complex ecosystem processes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Density dependent environments can select for extremes of body size

Body size variation is an enigma. We do not understand why species achieve the sizes they do, and this means we also do not understand the circumstances under which gigantism or dwarfism is selected. We develop size-structured integral projection models to explore evolution of body size and life history speed. We make few assumptions and keep models simple: all functions remain constant across models except for the one that describes development of body size with age. We set sexual maturity to occur when size attains 80% of the asymptotic size, which is typical of a large mammal, and allow negative density dependence to only affect either reproduction or juvenile survival. Fitness - the quantity that is maximized by adaptive evolution - is carrying capacity in our models, and we are consequently interested in how it changes with size at sexual maturity, and how this association varies with development rate. The simple models generate complex dynamics while providing insight into the circumstances when extremes of body size evolve. The direction of selection leading to either gigantism or dwarfism crucially depends on the proportion of the population that is sexually mature, which in turn depends on how the development function determines the survivorship schedule. The developmental trajectories consequently interact with size-specific survival or reproductive rates to determine the best life history and the optimal body size emerges from that interaction. These dynamics result in trade-offs between different components of the life history, with the form of the trade-off that emerges depending upon where in the life history density dependence operates most strongly. Empirical application of the approach we develop has potential to help explain the enigma of body size variation across the tree of life.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) infection of white-tailed deer

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are highly susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2, with multiple reports of widespread spillover of virus from humans to free-living deer. While the recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern (VoC) has been shown to be notably more transmissible amongst humans, its ability to cause infection and spillover to non-human animals remains a challenge of concern. We found that 19 of the 131 (14.5%; 95% CI: 0.10-0.22) white-tailed deer opportunistically sampled on Staten Island, New York, between December 12, 2021, and January 31, 2022, were positive for SARS-CoV-2 specific serum antibodies using a surrogate virus neutralization assay, indicating prior exposure. The results also revealed strong evidence of age-dependence in antibody prevalence. A significantly ({chi}2, p < 0.001) greater proportion of yearling deer possessed neutralizing antibodies as compared with fawns (OR=12.7; 95% CI 4-37.5). Importantly, SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid was detected in nasal swabs from seven of 68 (10.29%; 95% CI: 0.0-0.20) of the sampled deer, and whole-genome sequencing identified the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VoC (B.1.1.529) is circulating amongst the white-tailed deer on Staten Island. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the deer Omicron sequences clustered closely with other, recently reported Omicron sequences recovered from infected humans in New York City and elsewhere, consistent with human to deer spillover. Interestingly, one individual deer was positive for viral RNA and had a high level of neutralizing antibodies, suggesting either rapid serological conversion during an ongoing infection or a "breakthrough" infection in a previously exposed animal. Together, our findings show that the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 Omicron VoC can infect white-tailed deer and highlights an urgent need for comprehensive surveillance of susceptible animal species to identify ecological transmission networks and better assess the potential risks of spillback to humans. Key FindingsThese studies provide strong evidence of infection of free-living white-tailed deer with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 Omicron variant of concern on Staten Island, New York, and highlight an urgent need for investigations on human-to-animal-to-human spillovers/spillbacks as well as on better defining the expanding host-range of SARS-CoV-2 in non-human animals and the environment.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Nipah virus detection at bat roosts following spillover events in Bangladesh, 2012-2019

Knowledge of the dynamics and genetic diversity of Nipah virus circulating in bats and at the human-animal interface is limited by current sampling efforts, which produce few detections of viral RNA. We report on a series of investigations at bat roosts identified near human Nipah cases in Bangladesh between 2012 and 2019. Pooled bat urine samples were collected from 23 roosts; seven roosts (30%) had at least one sample with Nipah RNA detected from the first visit. In subsequent visits to these seven roosts, RNA was detected in bat urine up to 52 days after the presumed exposure of the human case, although the probability of detection declined rapidly with time. These results suggest that rapidly deployed investigations of Nipah virus shedding from bat roosts near human cases could increase the success of viral sequencing compared to background surveillance and enhance our understanding of Nipah virus ecology and evolution.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Multiple spillovers and onward transmission of SARS-Cov-2 in free-living and captive White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Many animal species are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and could potentially act as reservoirs, yet transmission of the virus in non-human free-living animals has not been documented. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the predominant cervid in North America, are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and experimentally infected fawns can transmit the virus. To test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 may be circulating in deer, we tested 283 retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) samples collected from 151 free-living and 132 captive deer in Iowa from April 2020 through December of 2020 for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Ninety-four of the 283 deer (33.2%; 95% CI: 28, 38.9) samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as assessed by RT-PCR. Notably, between November 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021, 80 of 97 (82.5%; 95% CI 73.7, 88.8) RPLN samples had detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR. Whole genome sequencing of the 94 positive RPLN samples identified 12 SARS-CoV-2 lineages, with B.1.2 (n = 51; 54.5%), and B.1.311 (n = 19; 20%) accounting for ~75% of all samples. The geographic distribution and nesting of clusters of deer and human lineages strongly suggest multiple zooanthroponotic spillover events and deer-to-deer transmission. The discovery of sylvatic and enzootic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in deer has important implications for the ecology and long-term persistence, as well as the potential for spillover to other animals and spillback into humans. These findings highlight an urgent need for a robust and proactive "One Health" approach to obtaining a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. One-Sentence SummarySARS-CoV-2 was detected in one-third of sampled white-tailed deer in Iowa between September 2020 and January of 2021 that likely resulted from multiple human-to-deer spillover and deer-to-deer transmission events.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2020

The ecology of Nipah virus in Bangladesh: a nexus of land use change and opportunistic feeding behavior in bats

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship between spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources - conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Future-proofing code: Principles of coding for plant ecophysiology with {photosynthesis} as a case study

Plant ecophysiology is founded on a rich body of physical and chemical theory, but it is challenging to connect theory with data in unambiguous, analytically rigorous, and reproducible ways. Custom scripts written in computer programming languages (coding) enable plant ecophysiologists to model plant processes and fit models to data reproducibly using advanced statistical techniques. Since many ecophysiologists lack formal programming education, we have yet to adopt a unified set of coding principles and standards that could make coding easier to learn, use, and modify. We identify eight principles to help in plant ecophysiologists without much programming experience to write resilient code: 1) standardized nomenclature, 2) consistency in style, 3) increased modularity/extensibility for easier editing and understanding, 4) code scalability for application to large datasets, 5) documented contingencies for code maintenance, 6) documentation to facilitate user understanding; 7) extensive tutorials, and 8) unit testing. We illustrate these principles using a new R package, {photosynthesis}, which provides a set of analytical and simulation tools for plant ecophysiology. Our goal with these principles is to advance scientific discovery in plant ecophysiology by making it easier to use code for simulation and data analysis, reproduce results, and rapidly incorporate new biological understanding and analytical tools.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Relationship between Anti-Spike Protein Antibody Titers and SARS-CoV-2 In Vitro Virus Neutralization in Convalescent Plasma

Newly emerged pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 highlight the urgent need for assays that detect levels of neutralizing antibodies that may be protective. We studied the relationship between anti-spike ectodomain (ECD) and anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG titers, and SARS-CoV-2 virus neutralization (VN) titers generated by two different in vitro assays using convalescent plasma samples obtained from 68 COVID-19 patients, including 13 who donated plasma multiple times. Only 23% (16/68) of donors had been hospitalized. We also studied 16 samples from subjects found to have anti-spike protein IgG during surveillance screening of asymptomatic individuals. We report a strong positive correlation between both plasma anti-RBD and anti-ECD IgG titers, and in vitro VN titer. Anti-RBD plasma IgG correlated slightly better than anti-ECD IgG titer with VN titer. The probability of a VN titer [≥]160 was 80% or greater with anti-RBD or anti-ECD titers of [≥]1:1350. Thirty-seven percent (25/68) of convalescent plasma donors lacked VN titers [≥]160, the FDA-recommended level for convalescent plasma used for COVID-19 treatment. Dyspnea, hospitalization, and disease severity were significantly associated with higher VN titer. Frequent donation of convalescent plasma did not significantly decrease either VN or IgG titers. Analysis of 2,814 asymptomatic adults found 27 individuals with anti-RBD or anti-ECD IgG titers of [≥]1:1350, and evidence of VN [≥]1:160. Taken together, we conclude that anti-RBD or anti-ECD IgG titers can serve as a surrogate for VN titers to identify suitable plasma donors. Plasma anti-RBD or anti-ECD titer of [≥]1:1350 may provide critical information about protection against COVID-19 disease.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2019

Identifying age cohorts responsible for Peste des petits ruminants virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in northern Tanzania

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations and leads to approximately $2 billion USD in global annual losses. PPRV is currently targeted by the Food and Agricultural Organization and World Animal Health Organization for global eradication by 2030. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence rose with age, as would be expected if PPRV is a fully-immunizing infection, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting endemicity in pastoral settings. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models included merged age groups: two age groups for sheep, three age groups for goats, and four age groups for cattle. However, the signal of these age heterogeneities was weak, with overlapping confidence intervals around force of infection estimates from most models with the exception of a significant FOI peak among 2.5-3.5 year old pastoral cattle. Pastoral animals had a higher force of infection overall, and across a wider range of ages than agropastoral animals. The subtle age-specific force of infection heterogeneities identified in this study among sheep, goats, and cattle suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as management system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission. Author SummaryAge differences in transmission are important for many infections, and can help target control programs. We used an age-structured serosurvey of Tanzanian sheep, goats, and cattle to explore peste des petits ruminants virus transmission. We estimated rate at which susceptibles acquire infection (force of infection) to determine which age group(s) had the highest transmission rates. We hypothesized that an age-varying model with multiple age groups would better fit the data than an age constant model and that the highest transmission rates would appear in the youngest age groups. Furthermore, we hypothesized evidence of immunity would increase with age. The data supported our hypothesis at the species level and the best fitting models merged age groups: two, three, and four age group models were best for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. The highest rates occurred among younger age groups and evidence of immunity rose with age for all species. In most models, confidence interval estimates overlapped, but there was a significant FOI peak among 2.3-3.5 year old pastoral cattle. Importantly, these data indicate that there is not sufficient evidence to support targeted control by age group, and that targeted control based on production system should be more effective.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

More than a flying syringe: Using functional traits in vector borne disease research

Many important endemic and emerging diseases are vector-borne. The functional traits of vectors affect not just pathogen transmission rates, but also the fitness and population dynamics of these animals themselves. Increasing empirical evidence suggests that vector traits vary significantly at time scales relevant to transmission dynamics. Currently, an understanding of how this variation in key traits impacts transmission is hindered by a lack of both empirical data and theoretical methods for mechanistically incorporating traits into transmission models. Here, we present a framework for incorporating both intrinsic and environment-driven variation in vector traits into empirical and theoretical vector-borne disease research. This framework mechanistically captures the effect of trait variation on vector fitness, the correlation between vector traits, and how these together determine transmission dynamics. We illustrate how trait-based vector-borne disease modelling can make novel predictions, and identify key steps and challenges in the construction, empirical parameterisation and validation of such models, as well as the organization and prioritization of data collection efforts.

ecology↗