Biology subjects

Huddleston, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Huddleston, J..

18 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus in summer of 2026 shows antigenic advance of H3N2 subclade K region D mutants and H1N1 D.3.1.1 Sa mutants

Human seasonal influenza evolves rapidly, necessitating twice yearly decisions about whether to update the strains in the vaccine. To help inform this decision, we have been using high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assays to make twice yearly measurements of how recent human sera neutralize current human H3N2 and H1N1 strains. Here we provide the third installment in this series of measurements by reporting 52,268 titers representing neutralization of 148 viral strains by 355 human sera collected between April and August of 2026. Our measurements show that new H3N2 subclade K strains with mutations in antigenic region D and new H1N1 subclade D.3.1.1 strains with mutations in antigenic region Sa (such as G155E) have reduced neutralization by human sera, with notable heterogeneity in the impact of some of these mutations across sera from different individuals. This paper is accompanied by an interactive summary (https://jbloomlab.github.io/flu-seqneut-2026/summary.html) that enables detailed exploration of the results, and all titer data are publicly available for further analysis to aid vaccine antigen selection and studies of viral evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Nextstrain automates real-time phylodynamic analysis of open data for endemic and emerging pathogens

MotivationGenome sequencing provides an exceptional window into the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of endemic and emerging pathogens, and thus allows for better, more targeted, public health interventions. Online genomic surveillance platforms can provide near real-time insight into these dynamics. ResultsNextstrain provides continually updated real-time genomic surveillance for 21 viruses and the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis, with most analyses relying solely on open sequence data. Each pathogen includes steps to fetch and curate open data, classify sequences using established nomenclature systems, perform phylogenetic analyses, and share the results publicly. These analyses are automated, with most running daily to provide continually updated snapshots of pathogen evolution. Availability and ImplementationAll source code is available at https://github.com/nextstrain. Phylogenetic results can be visualized and downloaded at https://nextstrain.org/pathogens, and open sequence data and curated metadata are available at https://nextstrain.org/pathogens/files.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2026

Strain-specific differences in the response to egg-derived versus recombinant protein influenza vaccines

The 2023/2024 influenza vaccine included an updated H1N1 component designed to better match a new clade of H1N1 that had multiple mutations in antigenic epitopes of hemagglutinin. Despite this update, the vaccine trended towards being less effective against the vaccine-matched H1N1 clade than the parental H1N1 clade lacking the new antigenic mutations. Here we measure neutralization titers of serum antibodies from individuals who had received either a recombinant protein or an egg-derived vaccine against a set of viruses with hemagglutinins from 58 H1N1 strains representative of the diversity during the 2023/2024 season. We find that egg-derived vaccine recipients, but not recombinant protein vaccine recipients, had a relatively lower boost in neutralizing titers to the new clade that the updated vaccine was designed to target. We suggest that the difference in the extent that the egg-derived versus recombinant protein vaccines boosted neutralizing titers to the new H1N1 clade is because the seed strain for the egg-derived vaccine strain had acquired a reversion of a key antigenic mutation (K142R) present in that clade. Our results show how egg-derived versus recombinant protein vaccines can elicit different relative titer boosts against different subsets of viral strains, a phenomenon that could impact vaccine effectiveness. ImportanceInfluenza vaccines can be produced from virus grown in eggs, or grown in cells or made with recombinant protein. Egg-derived influenza vaccines often contain egg-adaptive mutations in the viral antigen hemagglutinin (HA) which can impact the antigenicity or immunogenicity of the HA. In this study, we compare neutralization titers from egg-derived and recombinant protein vaccine recipients against recently circulating influenza A(H1N1) strains. We find that the egg-derived vaccine induces less of a boost in titers than the recombinant protein vaccine to the new clade of viral strains that the vaccine was designed to target.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2026

Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection

Twice each year, a decision is made on whether to update the strains included in the seasonal influenza vaccine to better match the most recent circulating viral strains. To characterize the antigenic properties of current seasonal influenza A strains to inform the upcoming decision about which strains to include in the 2026-2027 Northern Hemisphere vaccine, here we perform high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assays using a library of 57 H3N2 and 34 H1N1 influenza hemagglutinins reflecting the circulating diversity of strains in late 2025 to early 2026. We assay this library against 302 human sera collected in late 2025. The resulting data set encompasses 27,409 titers, and provides a near real-time portrait of the human neutralizing antibody landscape against influenza virus. We find that many human sera have lower titers against the K subclade of H3N2 and the D.3.1.1 subclade of H1N1; these subclades have recently become dominant among their respective subtypes. Our measurements also reveal variability in titers to different subvariants within the K subclade of H3N2, with titers especially low to subclade K strains with additional mutations in antigenic regions D and E. We make all our data and accompanying visualizations publicly available to enable their use in vaccine-strain selection and analyses of influenza evolution and immunity.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

antigen-prime: Simulating coupled genetic and antigenic evolution of influenza virus

Seasonal influenza virus undergoes rapid antigenic drift to escape population immunity. Computational methods can be used to organize viral genetic diversity into antigenically similar variants and estimate variantspecific growth rates. However, benchmarking these methods is challenging because it can be difficult to accurately quantify antigenicity and growth rates in nature. Simulating viral evolution using defined selective pressures can provide ground-truth data for benchmarking. But, existing simulators do not link genetic sequences to antigenic phenotypes under selection from host populations. Here, we present a forward-time epidemic simulator called antigen-prime that links these factors. We use it to simulate viral evolution over 30 years and validate the simulation recapitulates genetic and antigenic patterns observed in natural influenza evolution. We then use the simulated data to benchmark methods for assigning variants and estimating their growth rates. We evaluated a sequencebased and a phylogenetics-based method for variant assignment, finding the former was slightly more effective at separating viruses into antigenically distinct groups. We also evaluated methods for estimating variant growth rates in one-year sliding windows. Estimates were accurate in most windows, but highly inaccurate in several others. Examining higherror windows revealed several examples of a previously unreported failure mode. In all, antigen-prime provides a simulation framework to benchmark models of influenza evolution, and could be used to help guide future development of these models. The source code is openly available at https://github.com/matsengrp/antigen-prime.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2025

Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025

The hemagglutinin of human influenza virus evolves rapidly to erode neutralizing antibody immunity. Twice per year, new vaccine strains are selected with the goal of providing maximum protection against the viruses that will be circulating when the vaccine is administered [~]8-12 months in the future. To help inform this selection, here we quantify how the antibodies in recently collected human sera neutralize viruses with hemagglutinins from contemporary influenza strains. Specifically, we use a high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assay to measure how 188 human sera collected from Oct 2024 to April 2025 neutralize 140 viruses representative of the H3N2 and H1N1 strains circulating in humans as of the summer of 2025. This data set, which encompasses 26,148 neutralization titer measurements, provides a detailed portrait of the current human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza A virus. The full data set and accompanying visualizations are available for use in vaccine development and viral forecasting.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2025

High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains

Human influenza viruses rapidly acquire mutations in their hemagglutinin (HA) protein that erode neutralization by antibodies from prior exposures. Here, we use a sequencing-based assay to measure neutralization titers for 78 recent H3N2 HA strains against a large set of children and adult sera, measuring [~]10,000 total titers. There is substantial person-to-person heterogeneity in the titers against different viral strains, both within and across age cohorts. The growth rates of H3N2 strains in the human population in 2023 are highly correlated with the fraction of sera with low titers against each strain. Notably, strain growth rates are less correlated with neutralization titers against pools of human sera, demonstrating the importance of population heterogeneity in shaping viral evolution. Overall, these results suggest that high-throughput neutralization measurements of human sera against many different viral strains can help explain the evolution of human influenza.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

High-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assay reveals how repeated vaccinations impact titers to recent human H1N1 influenza strains

The high genetic diversity of influenza viruses means that traditional serological assays have too low throughput to measure serum antibody neutralization titers against all relevant strains. To overcome this challenge, we have developed a sequencing-based neutralization assay that simultaneously measures titers against many viral strains using small serum volumes via a workflow similar to traditional neutralization assays. The key innovation is to incorporate unique nucleotide barcodes into the hemagglutinin (HA) genomic segment, and then pool viruses with numerous different barcoded HA variants and quantify infectivity of all of them simultaneously using next-generation sequencing. With this approach, a single researcher performed the equivalent of 2,880 traditional neutralization assays (80 serum samples against 36 viral strains) in approximately one month. We applied the sequencing-based assay to quantify the impact of influenza vaccination on neutralization titers against recent human H1N1 strains for individuals who had or had not also received a vaccine in the previous year. We found that the viral strain specificities of the neutralizing antibodies elicited by vaccination vary among individuals, and that vaccination induced a smaller increase in titers for individuals who had also received a vaccine the previous year--although the titers six months after vaccination were similar in individuals with and without the previous-year vaccination. We also identified a subset of individuals with low titers to a subclade of recent H1N1 even after vaccination. This study demonstrates the utility of high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assays that enable titers to be simultaneously measured against many different viral strains. We provide a detailed experimental protocol (DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.17504/protocols.io.kqdg3xdmpg25/v1) and a computational pipeline (https://github.com/jbloomlab/seqneut-pipeline) for the sequencing-based neutralization assays to facilitate the use of this method by others.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2024

Dimensionality reduction distills complex evolutionary relationships in seasonal influenza and SARS-CoV-2

Public health researchers and practitioners commonly infer phylogenies from viral genome sequences to understand transmission dynamics and identify clusters of genetically-related samples. However, viruses that reassort or recombine violate phylogenetic assumptions and require more sophisticated methods. Even when phylogenies are appropriate, they can be unnecessary or difficult to interpret without specialty knowledge. For example, pairwise distances between sequences can be enough to identify clusters of related samples or assign new samples to existing phylogenetic clusters. In this work, we tested whether dimensionality reduction methods could capture known genetic groups within two human pathogenic viruses that cause substantial human morbidity and mortality and frequently reassort or recombine, respectively: seasonal influenza A/H3N2 and SARS-CoV-2. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), multidimensional scaling (MDS), t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), and uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) to sequences with well-defined phylogenetic clades and either reassortment (H3N2) or recombination (SARS-CoV-2). For each low-dimensional embedding of sequences, we calculated the correlation between pairwise genetic and Euclidean distances in the embedding and applied a hierarchical clustering method to identify clusters in the embedding. We measured the accuracy of clusters compared to previously defined phylogenetic clades, reassortment clusters, or recombinant lineages. We found that MDS embeddings accurately represented pairwise genetic distances including the intermediate placement of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineages between parental lineages. Clusters from t-SNE embeddings accurately recapitulated known phylogenetic clades, H3N2 reassortment groups, and SARS-CoV-2 recombinant lineages. We show that simple statistical methods without a biological model can accurately represent known genetic relationships for relevant human pathogenic viruses. Our open source implementation of these methods for analysis of viral genome sequences can be easily applied when phylogenetic methods are either unnecessary or inappropriate.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2023

Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin

ABSTRACTHuman influenza virus evolves to escape neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. However, we have a limited understanding of how the antigenic effects of viral mutations vary across the human population, and how this heterogeneity affects virus evolution. Here we use deep mutational scanning to map how mutations to the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of the A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2) and A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2) strains affect neutralization by serum from individuals of a variety of ages. The effects of HA mutations on serum neutralization differ across age groups in ways that can be partially rationalized in terms of exposure histories. Mutations that fixed in influenza variants after 2020 cause the greatest escape from sera from younger individuals. Overall, these results demonstrate that influenza faces distinct antigenic selection regimes from different age groups, and suggest approaches to understand how this heterogeneous selection shapes viral evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Rapid and parallel adaptive mutations in spike S1 drive clade success in SARS-CoV-2

Given the importance of variant SARS-CoV-2 viruses with altered receptor-binding or antigenic phenotypes, we sought to quantify the degree to which adaptive evolution is driving accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Here we assessed adaptive evolution across genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome by correlating clade growth with mutation accumulation as well as by comparing rates of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence, clustering of mutations across the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and degree of convergent evolution of individual mutations. We find that spike S1 is the focus of adaptive evolution, but also identify positively-selected mutations in other genes that are sculpting the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Adaptive changes in S1 accumulated rapidly, resulting in a remarkably high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence that is 2.5X greater than that observed in HA1 at the beginning of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Complete mapping of mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain that escape antibody recognition

Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) are being developed as therapeutics and make a major contribution to the neutralizing antibody response elicited by infection. Here, we describe a deep mutational scanning method to map how all amino-acid mutations in the RBD affect antibody binding, and apply this method to 10 human monoclonal antibodies. The escape mutations cluster on several surfaces of the RBD that broadly correspond to structurally defined antibody epitopes. However, even antibodies targeting the same RBD surface often have distinct escape mutations. The complete escape maps predict which mutations are selected during viral growth in the presence of single antibodies, and enable us to design escape-resistant antibody cocktails-including cocktails of antibodies that compete for binding to the same surface of the RBD but have different escape mutations. Therefore, complete escape-mutation maps enable rational design of antibody therapeutics and assessment of the antigenic consequences of viral evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2020

Limited predictability of amino acid substitutions in seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses repeatedly infect humans in part because they rapidly change their antigenic properties and evade host immune responses, necessitating frequent updates of the vaccine composition. Accurate predictions of strains circulating in the future could therefore improve the vaccine match. Here, we studied the predictability of frequency dynamics and fixation of amino acid substitutions. Current frequency was the strongest predictor of eventual fixation, as expected in neutral evolution. Other properties, such as occurrence in previously characterized epitopes or high Local Branching Index (LBI) had little predictive power. Parallel evolution was found to be moderately predictive of fixation. While the LBI had little power to predict frequency dynamics, it was still successful at picking strains representative of future populations. The latter is due to a tendency of the LBI to be high for consensus-like sequences that are closer to the future than the average sequence. Simulations of models of adapting populations, in contrast, show clear signals of predictability. This indicates that the evolution of influenza HA and NA, while driven by strong selection pressure to change, is poorly described by common models of directional selection such as travelling fitness waves.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution

Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Seasonal influenza circulation patterns and projections for September 2019 to September 2020

This report details current seasonal influenza circulation patterns as of August 2019 and makes projections up to September 2020 to coincide with selection of the 2020 Southern Hemisphere vaccine strain. This is not meant as a comprehensive report, but is instead intended as particular observations that weve made that may be of relevance. Please also note that observed patterns reflect the GISAID database and may not be entirely representative of underlying dynamics. All analyses are based on the nextflu/nextstrain pipeline [1,2] with continual updates posted to nextstrain.org/flu. A/H3N2: A/H3N2 viruses continue to show substantial diversity in HA sequences with a deep split between 3c3.A and 3c2.A1b viruses. The most notable recent developments are the rapid rise of clade A1b/137F - a subclade of A1b/135K - in China and Bangladesh and clade A1b/197R - a subclade of A1b/131K - which dominates the ongoing season in Australia. Our models predict that A1b/137F and A1b/197R will be the dominant clades next year with A1b/197R accounting for most circulation. There is, however, large uncertainty in the true extent of A1b/137F circulation. A/H1N1pdm: The S183P substitution has risen to near fixation. The most successful subclade carrying this mutation is 183P-5 which has essentially replaced competing variants. A variant with substitutions 129D/185I is at 60% prevalence globally, while a second variant with substitution 130N is at 50% in North America and ~10% elsewhere. Substitutions at site 156 to D or K have arisen sporadically and result in loss of recognition by antisera raised against viruses with asparagine at position 156. Despite the large antigenic effect, viruses with mutations at site 156 dont seem to spread. Beyond variants at site 156, little to no antigenic evolution is evident in assays with ferret antisera. B/Vic: Antigenically drifted deletion variants at HA1 sites 162, 163 and 164 are now dominating global circulation and have all but taken over. The double deletion variant V1A.1 had previously been circulating at high frequency in the Americas. However, over the course of 2009, the triple deletion variant V1A.3 has increased in frequency globally and is now dominating in all geographic regions. Importantly, V1A.1 and V1A.3 variants appear antigenically distinct by HI assays with 4-8 fold reductions in log2 titer in both directions. B/Yam: B/Yam has not circulated in large numbers since the Northern Hemisphere season 2017/2018 and displays relatively little amino acid variation in HA or antigenic diversity. Amino acid variants at sites 229 and 232 have begun to circulate and population is now split between 229D/232D, 229N/232D and 229D/232N variants. These variants show little sign of antigenic difference in HI assays.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Evolution and rapid spread of a reassortant A(H3N2) virus that predominated the 2017-2018 influenza season

The 2017-2018 North American influenza season caused more hospitalizations and deaths than any year since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The majority of recorded influenza infections were caused by A(H3N2) viruses, with most of the viruss North American diversity falling into the A2 clade. Within A2, we observe a subclade which we call A2/re that rose to comprise almost 70% of A(H3N2) viruses circulating in North America by early 2018. Unlike most fast-growing clades, however, A2/re contains no amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin (HA) segment. Moreover, HI assays did not suggest substantial antigenic differences between A2/re viruses and viruses sampled during the 2016-2017 season. Rather, we observe that the A2/re clade was the result of a reassortment event that occurred in late 2016 or early 2017 and involved the combination of the HA and PB1 segments of an A2 virus with neuraminidase (NA) and other segments a virus from the clade A1b. The success of this clade shows the need for antigenic analysis that targets NA in addition to HA. Our results illustrate the potential for non-HA drivers of viral success and necessitate the need for more thorough tracking of full viral genomes to better understand the dynamics of influenza epidemics.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Deep mutational scanning of hemagglutinin helps predict evolutionary fates of human H3N2 influenza variants

Human influenza virus rapidly accumulates mutations in its major surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). The evolutionary success of influenza virus lineages depends on how these mutations affect HAs functionality and antigenicity. Here we experimentally measure the effects on viral growth in cell culture of all single amino-acid mutations to the HA from a recent human H3N2 influenza virus strain. We show that mutations that are measured to be more favorable for viral growth are enriched in evolutionarily successful H3N2 viral lineages relative to mutations that are measured to be less favorable for viral growth. Therefore, despite the well-known caveats about cell-culture measurements of viral fitness, such measurements can still be informative for understanding evolution in nature. We also compare our measurements for H3 HA to similar data previously generated for a distantly related H1 HA, and find substantial differences in which amino acids are preferred at many sites. For instance, the H3 HA has less disparity in mutational tolerance between the head and stalk domains than the H1 HA. Overall, our work suggests that experimental measurements of mutational effects can be leveraged to help understand the evolutionary fates of viral lineages in nature -- but only when the measurements are made on a viral strain similar to the ones being studied in nature.\n\nSignificance StatementA key goal in the study of influenza virus evolution is to forecast which viral strains will persist and which ones will die out. Here we experimentally measure the effects of all amino-acid mutations to the hemagglutinin protein from a human H3N2 influenza strain on viral growth in cell culture. We show that these measurements have utility for distinguishing among viral strains that do and do not succeed in nature. Overall, our work suggests that new high-throughput experimental approaches may be useful for understanding virus evolution in nature.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Nextstrain: real-time tracking of pathogen evolution

SummaryUnderstanding the spread and evolution of pathogens is important for effective public health measures and surveillance. Nextstrain consists of a database of viral genomes, a bioinformatics pipeline for phylodynamics analysis, and an interactive visualisation platform. Together these present a real-time view into the evolution and spread of a range of viral pathogens of high public health importance. The visualization integrates sequence data with other data types such as geographic information, serology, or host species. Nextstrain compiles our current understanding into a single accessible location, publicly available for use by health professionals, epidemiologists, virologists and the public alike.\n\nAvailability and implementationAll code (predominantly JavaScript and Python) is freely available from github.com/nextstrain and the web-application is available at nextstrain.org.

evolutionary biology↗