Horswill, C. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Fear and foraging in the ecosystem size spectrum generate diversity in fish life histories

Understanding how growth and reproduction will adapt to changing environmental conditions is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology, but predicting the responses of specific taxa is challenging. Analyses of the physiological effects of climate change upon life history evolution rarely consider alternative hypothesized mechanisms, such as size-dependent foraging and the risk of predation, simultaneously shaping optimal growth patterns. To test for interactions between these mechanisms, we embedded a state-dependent energetic model in an ecosystem size-spectrum to ask whether prey availability (foraging) and risk of predation experienced by individual fish can explain observed diversity in life histories of fishes. We found that asymptotic growth emerged from size-based foraging and reproductive and mortality patterns in the context of ecosystem food web interactions. While more productive ecosystems led to larger body sizes, the effects of temperature on metabolic costs had only small effects on size. To validate our model, we ran it for abiotic scenarios corresponding to the ecological lifestyles of three tuna species, considering environments that included seasonal variation in temperature. We successfully predicted realistic patterns of growth, reproduction, and mortality of all three tuna species. We found that individuals grew larger when environmental conditions varied seasonally and spawning was restricted to part of the year (corresponding to their migration from temperate to tropical waters). Growing larger was advantageous because foraging and spawning opportunities were seasonally constrained. This mechanism could explain the evolution of gigantism in temperate tunas. Our approach addresses variation in food availability and individual risk as well as metabolic processes and offers a promising approach to understand fish life-history responses to changing ocean conditions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Using stationary vital rates in impact assessments may underestimate potential threat

Population viability analysis (PVA) is commonly used to assess future potential risks to threatened species. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity. However, the vital rates of wild populations, especially those already exhibiting declining trajectories, may be nonstationary, such that the mean or variance changes over time. In this study, we examined whether including observed temporal trends in vital rates affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected impact associated with a hypothetical threat. To achieve this, we ran a series of simulations using Leslie matrix PVA models that included different combinations of environmental stochasticity, temporal trends in vital rates, and threat. We apply our analysis to a long-lived colonial species of seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, that is classified as globally Vulnerable and is potentially highly sensitive to offshore renewable energy development. We found that including observed temporal trends in vital rates was (i) crucial for the accurate reconstruction of observed population dynamics and (ii) had a dramatic effect on the projected impact from the hypothetical threat. In an era when many animal and plant populations are declining due to long-term trends in their vital rates, we identify that including this demographic structure is essential for robustly evaluating potential threats using PVA models. Omitting observed temporal trends in vital rates from impact assessments is highly likely to yield unreliable results that could misinform conservation and management decision making. This result has immediate application for conducting impact assessments on protected species and populations.

ecology↗