Hodcroft, E. B. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Nextstrain automates real-time phylodynamic analysis of open data for endemic and emerging pathogens

MotivationGenome sequencing provides an exceptional window into the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of endemic and emerging pathogens, and thus allows for better, more targeted, public health interventions. Online genomic surveillance platforms can provide near real-time insight into these dynamics. ResultsNextstrain provides continually updated real-time genomic surveillance for 21 viruses and the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis, with most analyses relying solely on open sequence data. Each pathogen includes steps to fetch and curate open data, classify sequences using established nomenclature systems, perform phylogenetic analyses, and share the results publicly. These analyses are automated, with most running daily to provide continually updated snapshots of pathogen evolution. Availability and ImplementationAll source code is available at https://github.com/nextstrain. Phylogenetic results can be visualized and downloaded at https://nextstrain.org/pathogens, and open sequence data and curated metadata are available at https://nextstrain.org/pathogens/files.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2020

Evolution, geographic spreading, and demographic distribution of Enterovirus D68

BackgroundWorldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease. MethodsWe collected samples from several European countries during the 2018 out-break and determined 53 near full-length genome ( whole genome) sequences. These sequences were combined with 718 whole genome and 1,987 VP1-gene publicly available sequences. FindingsIn 2018, circulating strains clustered into multiple subgroups in the B3 and A2 subclades, with different phylogenetic origins. Clusters in subclade B3 emerged from strains circulating primarily in the US and Europe in 2016, though some had deeper roots linking to Asian strains, while clusters in A2 traced back to strains detected in East Asia in 2015-2016. In 2018, all sequences from the USA formed a distinct subgroup, containing only three non-US samples. Alongside the varied origins of seasonal strains, we found that diversification of these variants begins up to 18 months prior to the first diagnostic detection during a EV-D68 season. EV-D68 displays strong signs of continuous antigenic evolution and all 2018 A2 strains had novel patterns in the putative neutralizing epitopes in the BC- and DE-loops. The pattern in the BC-loop of the USA B3 subgroup had not been detected on that continent before. Patients with EV-D68 in subclade A2 were significantly older than patients with a B3 subclade virus. In contrast to other subclades, the age distribution of A2 is distinctly bimodal and was found primarily among children and in the elderly. InterpretationWe hypothesize that EV-D68s rapid evolution of surface proteins, extensive diversity, and high rate of geographic mixing could be explained by substantial reinfection of adults. FundingUniversity of Basel and Swedish Foundation for Research and Development in Medical Microbiology

microbiology↗