Effect of dataset partitioning strategies for evaluating out-of-distribution generalisation for predictive models in biochemistry
AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWQuantifying model generalization to out-of-distribution data has been a longstanding challenge in machine learning. Addressing this issue is crucial for leveraging machine learning in scientific discovery, where models must generalize to new molecules or materials. Current methods typically split data into train and test sets using various criteria -- temporal, sequence identity, scaffold, or random cross-validation -- before evaluating model performance. However, with so many splitting criteria available, existing approaches offer limited guidance on selecting the most appropriate one, and they do not provide mechanisms for incorporating prior knowledge about the target deployment distribution(s). To tackle this problem, we have developed a novel metric, AU-GOOD, which quantifies expected model performance under conditions of increasing dissimilarity between train and test sets, while also accounting for prior knowledge about the target deployment distribution(s), when available. This metric is broadly applicable to biochemical entities, including proteins, small molecules, nucleic acids, or cells; as long as a relevant similarity function is defined for them. Recognizing the wide range of similarity functions used in biochemistry, we propose criteria to guide the selection of the most appropriate metric for partitioning. We also introduce a new partitioning algorithm that generates more challenging test sets, and we propose statistical methods for comparing models based on AU-GOOD. Finally, we demonstrate the insights that can be gained from this framework by applying it to two different use cases: developing predictors for pharmaceutical properties of small molecules, and using protein language models as embeddings to build biophysical property predictors.